Tuesday, April 10, 2012

ACC Mock Draft Look-in

Are Austin Rivers and Harrison Barnes going to be the first two ACC players selected in this year's draft? (Follow the link). -photo via Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jawliw9ZphU

Mason Plumlee announced via twitter today that he was excited to return for his senior season at Duke and became the latest ACC player to announce one way or the other. While this is the time for players to either get ready to come back and represent their school for another season or prepare for the draft, it is also time to look at mock drafts and see where they are likely to be selected. So, I’ve decided to look into several different mock drafts and discuss whether I agree with the experts or not on those who are definitely going to be in the pool in June. (Remember that the NBA draft is based on a ping pong ball selection where the worst team in the league gets 25 of 100 balls, the second worst gets 17 out of 100, etc… so when you see Portland listed as drafting 5 in one mock draft and 7 in the other it is because of this.)

Harrison Barnes, 6’8”, 223, SF, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 5, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 7, Portland
Walter Football: No. 8, Cleveland
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 6, Toronto
Me: No. 6, Toronto. Barnes may have actually moved up because of James Michael McAdoo’s decision to return for his sophomore season at UNC just because the top ten in this year’s draft (besides Anthony Davis) does not boast many game-changers and McAdoo may have been the one with the most upside. The Raptors are a team that boasts futures at the center (Andrea Bargnani), shooting guard (DeMar DeRozan), and point guard (Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless) positions. They need some help at the forward positions, however. James Johnson, a second year player out of Wake Forest, has gotten most of their starts, but has not progressed as quickly as Raptor fans might like. Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may be the only small forward that is going to be drafted earlier this year than Barnes. In terms of the other predicted locations for Barnes, I do not see Portland as a great fit because both Nicolas Batum and Gerald Wallace are solid small forwards. Cleveland could work, but they also have a better chance of drafting lower than the Trailblazers, who are drafting in New Jersey’s spot.

Austin Rivers, 6’4”, 203, SG, Duke, Fr.
nbadraft.net: No. 9, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 16, Philadelphia
Walter Football: No. 17, Minnesota
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 14, Phoenix
Me: No. 13, Utah. First of all, Utah should be drafting lower than number nine with Golden State’s pick. The Jazz are going younger and could have a fully set, youth-filled lineup with Rivers joining Al Jefferson (C), Paul Millsap (PF), and Gordon Hayward (SF) to follow veteran Devin Harris (PG). The problem for the Jazz is the do not have a one-on-one player who can break down defenses with their dribble. That is exactly what Rivers is best at. I could also see the Jazz looking for a point guard to replace Harris, who turns 30 this year and seems to be stuck at 10 points and 5 assists. The Jazz could also look at Rivers as a point project, who can be turned into a playmaker from that position if his passing improves. Rivers will not be an immediate impact player and has to get used to NBA defenses, but could be a key addition for a Jazz team that seems to be playing too slowly. It will be a stretch for Rivers to make it past the lottery but if he makes it to Philadelphia that could be ideal for him. The Sixers are another team that plays slower and could use a guard that could break down defenses. They do, however, pride themselves on defense, something Rivers needs to improve on tremendously. Minnesota would be another good fit if he made it that far, mostly because they do not have a true shooting guard on their roster besides Wesley Johnson, who has been a bit of a bust in his first two seasons. Luke Ridnour has been starting the majority of their games at shooting guard and can certainly score but is not a break down type of player and does not have the size to play the two guard spot. The Wolves have a tremendous future in the frontcourt with Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic and should be looking to draft a guard, whether it’s Rivers or not.

Tyler Zeller, 6’11”, 240, PF/C, North Carolina, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 11, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 10, New Orleans
Walter Football: No. 11, Milwaukee
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 10, New Orleans
Me: No. 10, New Orleans. Zeller made his living throughout college by outrunning opposing big men and receiving feeds from point guard Kendall Marshall for easy lay-ins. He had a decent post game but, much like Tyler Hansbrough before him, used strength more than agility much of the time. His defensive presence continued to improve. I don’t see Zeller making an immediate impact as a pro, mostly because he won’t be able to outrun opponents and needs to work on his post moves more and not rely on his frame, which will not hold up against NBA bigs, as much. That’s why I see New Orleans being a perfect fit. Chris Kaman is one of the only consistent players on a weak roster in New Orleans and has a similar mindset to the game as Zeller. Kaman came out of Central Michigan with a similar repertoire as Zeller, and, after adding 25 pounds, came out as a starting center. Emeka Okafor is also there, but injuries have continued to deplete his once promising career. If Zeller can work his way into the system and follow Kaman’s footsteps they could make a tough frontcourt. Portland works similarly with LaMarcus Aldrige, but the Trailblazers forward has more talent and a better mid-range game than Zeller and plays the position that he is best suited for. The Blazers lack a consistent center, even though Marcus Camby has had his healthiest year in a long time. But I do not see Zeller being an immediate starter as a center, especially with his lack of size. Milwaukee just lost Andrew Bogut but Ersan Ilyasova, who also mimics a lot of Zeller’s game, is only 24 and seems to be the future inside for the Bucks. The bad news for Zeller is that he is competing against a plethora of power forwards, including Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson of Kansas, Andre Drummond of Connecticut, Arnett Moultrie of Mississippi State, Perry Jones of Baylor, Jared Sullinger of Ohio State, and Meyers Leonard of Illinois. Zeller could be seen as the most mature, but also the least ready for a starting role.

Kendall Marshall, 6’4”, 197, PG, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 14, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 14, Phoenix
Walter Football: No. 16, Denver
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 11, Portland
Me: No. 14, Phoenix. I really think that Marshall is going to end up having the best NBA career out of all the ACC prospects coming out this year. He has the best vision out of anyone coming out of the college ranks in years and reminds many of Jason Kidd. His shot remains the biggest question but point guards have succeeded in the NBA without a great outside shot (i.e. Rajon Rondo, Ty Lawson, etc…). Marshall looks the most NBA ready to me, and with improved defense, could be a solid contributor right away for whichever team he plays for. If he were picked by Phoenix that would just be a plus. Although he does not play like Steve Nash, he certainly could learn a lot from him. From his outside shooting to his dribbling ability, Nash is one of the most complete offensive players of the past decade. A Utah pick could make sense, but if they pick Rivers I don’t see Marshall joining him in the backcourt. Denver makes no sense to me, as fellow Tar Heel Ty Lawson is playing the best basketball of his career and is not showing any signs of letting up. Portland also has a Tar Heel in Raymond Felton who has been a traveler throughout his career but is a solid contributor. Felton plays more like Marshall and could take him under his wing, but there are still significant differences in their game. The only other true point guard who could be selected this early in the draft is Weber State’s Damian Lillard, who is a better scorer but not nearly as good of a passer. He also does not possess the size that makes Marshall a matchup nightmare already.

John Henson, 6’10”, 220, PF, North Carolina, Jr.
nbadraft.net: No. 17, Denver
draftexpress.com: No. 8, Detroit
Walter Football: No. 19, Philadelphia
Me: No. 18, Philadelphia. The problem for Henson is that there are the immense amounts of power forwards that I mentioned in the bit about Zeller. He has to compete with them, and he is clearly the most slender out of the group. Zeller is always going to be known as defense first, which bodes well for a lot of teams. He has the height to play against power forwards and does his best work coming as a help defender. Philadelphia prides themselves on defense and while the have Elton Brand set as a power forward, could see Henson as not only a replacement, but also someone who can give him rest and give opponents a completely different look. Brand is again and has a tremendous low post offensive game that he could teach to Henson. Henson could also step in with Brand and make a tough frontcourt to read with one strong, good rebounder and one long, athletic shot-blocker. I don’t see Denver mostly because they just traded to get JaVale McGee, who is a young and athletic center who has a tremendous upside. Al Harrington is the veteran here and should concentrate most of his efforts in raising McGee. Detroit could definitely work for two reasons. Ben Wallace, while reaching the end of his career, plays defensively a lot like Henson does and could help his shot blocking and rebounding. Greg Monroe is also the future at the center position and could team up with Henson to make a good frontcourt. But drafting him at eighth overall is a stretch and I see Detroit drafting one of the many other power forwards ahead of him.

Mike Scott, 6’8”, 237, PF, Virginia, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 43, Atlanta
draftexpress.com: No. 60, LA Lakers
Me: No. 37, Sacramento. Scott is going to be looked at to add depth for a roster. This is something that the Kings need. Not to say that Atlanta and the Lakers do not need this but I think Scott has the ability to be drafted ahead of New Mexico’s Drew Gordon, Seton Hall’s Herb Pope, and Cincinnati’s Yancey Gates, all big men who are expected to be drafted around the same time. I just think Scott has the most polished game out of the group, with a strong upper body, good rebounding skills, and a good outside shot.

Friday, April 6, 2012

Previewing Next Year's Duke-UNC Matchups

Is it possible to have another game as good as the one in Chapel Hill this year? -photo via AP

James Michael McAdoo gave Carolina fans a huge breath of relief when he announced that he was going to return for his sophomore season yesterday. But that does not mean there are not glaring holes that Roy Williams is going to have to patch up with freshmen. The Tar Heels have another solid recruiting class coming in and return some key players from injury. Everyone that follows ACC basketball knows that the biggest two games of the schedule are the two matchups between Duke and UNC almost every year. Duke loses Miles Plumlee to graduation and Austin Rivers to early entry. However, the Blue Devils, who were considered very young this year, return with more experience than they have had since their championship run in 2010. Here’s a way-too-early look at the rivalry next season.

North Carolina

Point guard: Marcus Paige, Freshman or Dexter Strickland, Senior. Strickland is a natural shooting guard but was the backup for Kendall Marshall before suffering a knee injury that ended his season prematurely. Paige is thought of as a pure point guard who has excellent vision and good ball handling skills. With all freshmen not named Anthony Davis, Paige will most certainly have a getting-used-to first month or so before being able to handle all the responsibilities of the point. It would not surprise me if Strickland, who is the team’s best returning defender, to start off as the floor leader until Paige gets his feet under him. The other option here would be Stillman White, who did an excellent job in replacing Marshall during the NCAA tournament. However, White is out next season while venturing on a religious exodus. Either way, replacing Marshall may be the hardest thing Williams will have to do.

Shooting guard: Dexter Strickland, Senior, Leslie McDonald, Junior, PJ Hairston, Sophomore, or Reggie Bullock, Junior. This position certainly has the most depth out of any for the Tar Heels, and the most experience. As I mentioned above Strickland was the starting shooting guard until his season ending injury and should be in the starting lineup throughout. McDonald also missed the entire season with an injury and will return as a serious three-point threat. I don’t see McDonald getting many starts, but will certainly be one of the first players off the bench. Hairston came in as a big three point shooter as well, but struggled throughout the season, finishing with a 27.3% average from deep while jacking up almost four threes a game. He has shown signs of athletic talent and with more experience should become more comfortable. The problem for him is he has to compete against three other players that have shown their ability already. Bullock stepped into the starting lineup after Strickland went down and did an adequate job as both their best long-range shooter and a solid defender. With a talented backcourt it wouldn’t be surprising if the 6’7” Bullock moved into the small forward spot.

Small forward: Reggie Bullock, Junior, JP Tokoto, Freshman. With the only other real option at the small forward position being the freshman Tokoto, Bullock should get the nod as the starter here. Tokoto may be the weakest of Carolina’s recruits, but that says something because of his ability. A natural athlete who has an ongoing motor, the 6’6” wing player enjoys playing above the rim. He is not a great shooter and need to add weight to his slender 190-pound frame.

Power Forward: James Michael McAdoo, Sophomore, Desmond Hubert, Sophomore, Brice Johnson, Freshman. McAdoo will become the best post player for this team next year and his late season surge (averaged over 10 points the last seven games) should carry over into next season. He is a freak athlete and has good strength for a player his age. However, maturity becomes a question and his ability to handle the pressure of being the guy who is replacing the production of both John Henson and Tyler Zeller could weigh on him. Hubert was another freshman this year, but got little time on the court. He is a long player and it would not surprise me if Roy had him watch tape of Henson on the defensive end to turn him into a shot blocker. He should get more playing time this season, but is far from a solid contributor on the offensive end. Johnson is one recruit that Carolina fans should be anxious to see. A natural shot-blocker who can run the floor, he should fit into Roy’s system perfectly. He is not a great post up player yet and is another player who should watch Henson to find out exactly how he should play.

Center: Joel James, Freshman. James is coming into Carolina as a recruit that reminds a lot of people of Reggie Johnson of Miami. He is a huge player who can take up room on the block and has good rebounding skills. He is not quite the offensive player that Johnson is, but his strength matches that of anyone coming into college this year. It would not surprise me to see Carolina go small and have McAdoo at the center position a lot or to see McAdoo and Brice Johnson getting the starts down low.

Duke

Point guard: Quinn Cook, Sophomore, Tyler Thornton, Junior, Seth Curry, Senior. Cook may have the most upside out of the returning natural point guards (Thornton being the other) and has excellent vision for a freshman. He had the best assist to turnover ratio on the team and with more playing team could become a solid contributor. His shot remains a big question but if he is getting into the paint and finding the other shooters on the team while averaging around five assists a game, no Duke fan will complain. Thornton is the best defender on the team and seems to play with more energy than his teammates. Far from the most talented player on the squad, the rising junior makes up for it with grit and hustle. He needs to work on his offense, however, both as a passer and shooter. Teams were leaving him alone on the outside and trying to make him beat them instead of Curry or Rivers. It would not surprise me if he ended up just working on his shot all summer and coming back as more of a shooter than playmaker next season. Curry is a natural shooting guard but ran the point at times last year as well. Next year he needs to take over this team, and certainly has the offensive efficiency to do so. He is turning into a natural scorer and a better defender and will be looked to for leadership next year.

Shooting guard: Seth Curry, Junior, Andre Dawkins, Senior, Rasheed Sulaimon, Freshman. As I mentioned above, Curry is the best offensive threat returning for the Blue Devils. He will probably end up starting at the shooting guard position and having Cook become the main ball handler. Dawkins is one of the best shooters in the country, but only when he is on. He is very streaky and needs to work on his defense. He also came out of high school known as an athlete and has yet to show his confidence in driving to the rim. He has certainly shown glimpses of being able to jump as high as anyone on the court but shies away from moments where he has to find his own shot. Sulaimon is the only prospect that has committed to the Blue Devils so far and has a big upside. During the McDonald’s All American game, ESPN commentator and former Blue Devil Jay Williams said of Sulaimon, “Coach K envisions him being a Nolan Smith type of player.” These are big words, as Smith was a national player of the year finalist and helped lead the Blue Devils to a National Championship. He should fit into the Duke system well as he is one of the best shooters and scorers in the incoming class.

Small forward: Michael Gbinije, Sophomore, Alex Murphy, Freshman. Gbinije was used very sparingly this season, which comes as a mystery to many. A 6’7” athletic player who showed he can play defense and get above the rim seemed to be exactly what Duke needed this year. He has gotten high praise on social media from teammates and could gain a larger role next season. Murphy is more of a natural big but can spread the floor with his outside shot. He redshirted this season because Coach K did not see him as getting much playing time with the other bigs on the roster. Other options to start here are Dawkins, who got the start when the Devils went to their three-guard lineup, which was a majority of the time, or Shabazz Muhammad, who has yet to declare for a school. Muhammad is the number two overall recruit and certainly would be a major player for the Devils if he deciding to commit.

Power forward: Josh Hairston, Junior, Ryan Kelly, Senior. Hairston has been a role player both of his first two seasons at Duke and has shown signs of being able to body up with opposing bigs. At 235 pounds he is strong enough to annoy opposing centers. Kelly will more than likely be the starter here. He was missed when he went out with a foot injury before the ACC tournament. He has the ability to play defense on opposing bigs and at 6’11” he can stretch them outside with his three point shooting. A captain this past year, Kelly will be looked at to once again be a leader. Duke is waiting on another recruit here, in Amile Jefferson. Jefferson seems to have narrowed his choices down to Duke, NC State or Kentucky. He is a competitive, long player who has a tremendous upside.

Center: Mason Plumlee, Senior, Marshall Plumlee, Freshman. Mason will be a potential all-conference player if he returns. The best interior presence on the team last year has still not publicly stated if he is going to enter the draft or return for his senior season. He has incredible athleticism and is a good shot-blocker. He needs to continue to improve his post moves but could be a force if he returns. Marshall joined Murphy as a redshirt this season but is thought of as the best offensive post player out of the three brothers. He is long at 6’11” but needs to add weight to his slender frame. He is not thought of as quite as athletic as Mason or Miles but seems to have good basketball IQ. The final recruit Duke is waiting to hear from is Tony Parker. Parker is a big player at 255 pounds and can take up space down low. He would be another immediate impact player for the Blue Devils and is deciding between Duke, Ohio State and Georgia.

The Skinny: Clearly both teams have tremendous depth and that could only get better for Duke if they sign one or all three of the recruits they are waiting to hear from. UNC will have a new look this season without their top four players but returns from injury should give them confidence. Duke will also have a new look without Rivers, who was their best playmaker. I feel as though Rivers leaving may have been a blessing in disguise for Duke, however, as he did not seem to fit the mold of a Coach K player. It should be another interesting matchup between these two and I will be surprised if they fail to split again.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

The Ten Best Freshman of the past Decade

Duke's JJ Redick (4) drives on North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough (50). These two had sensational careers, but how do their freshman years stack up against the best the ACC had to offer. -photo via Fayetteville Observer.


After Kentucky took home the National Championship behind the play of sensational freshmen, I got to thinking. I was remembering the best players that have come through the ACC and was thinking about the teams that won the national championships in the past decade. Then I started to think about how none of those teams had a freshman as their best player, as Anthony Davis was for Kentucky this season. But then when I thought about it more, there have been some sensational freshmen that have come through the conference since 2002. The “one-and-done” players have made their presence known in the conference, maybe not as much as Davis this year of Carmelo Anthony for Syracuse in 2003, but still have been there. So I decided to look into further and figure out who the best freshmen of the past decade (since the 2001-02 year) have been. I looked at both their stats and how far their team advanced that season. Anyways, here is your top ten:

10. Rashad McCants, North Carolina (2002-03)- McCants would eventually go down as one of the better players in the conference in recent memory after his three seasons at Carolina. That is surprising, considering his very productive freshman year. The guard averaged a team-high 17 points per game, while shooting a career best 49 percent from the field. What made the difference between McCants freshman year to junior year was that in his first season coach Matt Doherty could only take the Tar Heels to the NIT. Roy Williams was brought in in 2003 and immediately brought the Heels back to prominence. McCants teamed up with Raymond Felton and Sean May to bring Carolina their fourth National Championship in 2005. McCants would leave after that, his junior, season and suffer through a rocky first couple of years in the NBA.

9. JJ Hickson, NC State (2007-08)- Hickson stepped into a tough situation at NC State. Coach Sidney Lowe was a tremendous recruiter, as evidenced by his getting Hickson, a McDonald’s All American, but struggled to bring the Pack to any type of national recognition. Hickson was immediately looked at to be the number one option for the Wolfpack and did his absolute best to deliver. He was named ACC freshman of the year after averaging 15 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, but the team finished 15-16 and failed to make any postseason tournament. The forward left after one year and has enjoyed a mediocre career that includes starting for the Cleveland Cavaliers along with Lebron James.

-photo via Getty Images

8. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech (2009-10)- 2010 was not a special year for freshmen in the conference, but Favors, who came in as the number two overall recruit, did not disappoint Yellow Jacket fans. Favors started off a bit slow but ended with a 12.4 points per game average to go with 8.4 rebounds per game and an ACC best 61% FG shooting. Favors, much like Hickson, was immediately the go-to player for the Jackets, and led the Paul Hewitt-coached team to the second round of the NCAA tournament and a 23-13 record. Favors was consistently looked at as a top-rated NBA prospect and left after one season in Atlanta. He was picked third overall by New Jersey and has since been shipped to Utah. People are still waiting for the forward to deliver on his tremendous potential in the pros.

7. Marvin Williams, North Carolina (2004-05)- North Carolina was really good before Williams arrived. Roy Williams had brought this team back to national prominence with the talent of McCants, Felton, and May. Then the coach brought in Marvin and his recruiting ability was seen by conference foes. The highly touted recruit did not disappoint, averaging 11.3 points and 6.6 rebounds as arguably the most talented player on the most talented team in the country. The team went on to win the national championship and Williams left after one season. He has enjoyed the most successful career out of anyone on that Carolina team, being a mainstay in the starting lineup of the very consistent Atlanta Hawks team. Williams may be this high on my list because of his talent, and it can be argued that he would have been the best player on any other team in the country that year.

6. JJ Redick, Duke (2002-03)- Most know what Redick did in his career at Duke. He finished as the ACC’s all time leading scorer (upended by Tyler Hansbrough a few years later) and the all time leader in three pointers made and free throw percentage. Redick started this amazing career during his first season. He averaged 15 points and was named third team All-ACC on his way to leading the Blue Devils to the Sweet 16. Redick ended his career at Duke as being viewed as one of the best players ever to not win a national championship. The guard has gone on to continue improving his game and is now the first person off the bench for the Orlando Magic.

-photo via AP

5. Chris Paul, Wake Forest (2003-04)- Paul was an immediate success everywhere he went to play. He was named the North Carolina player of the year in high school, third team all-conference as a freshman, and an All-Rookie team in his first season in the NBA. It is hard to point to one part of Paul’s game that was the most amazing. He averaged a conference high 2.7 steals per game while averaging a team leading 5.9 assists per game. He also put in 14.8 points per game and amazed the media with his outside shooting. Paul led Wake Forest to a 21-10 record and a Sweet 16 appearance in 2004. The point guard has enjoyed the most successful NBA career out of anyone who has come through the conference in the past decade.

4. Luol Deng, Duke (2003-04)- Deng came in as the number two recruit in the country behind just Lebron James. He finished his first season at Duke as the top freshman in the conference and best playmaker on a final four team. Deng was one of the one-and-done players to come through the conference this past decade and one of the only ones that was NBA ready after just one season. Deng averaged 15.1 points per game and 6.9 rebounds per game as the Devils had perhaps the most talented team in the country but failed to get past Connecticut in the Final Four. Deng has enjoyed a very successful pro career and was named to his first All-Star game this season.

3. Craig Smith, Boston College (2002-03)- Not many remember Smith, probably because everything went downhill for the Eagles and him after his freshman season. Smith led his team with 19.9 points per game and 7.9 rebounds per game his freshman year and was named as a member of the national All-Freshman team. Smith led Boston College to a Sweet 16 appearance that season but his averages went down every season after that year and the team never enjoyed as much success as his first year. Smith was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft and has continually been mediocre in the pros.

-photo via Getty Images

2. Chris Bosh, Georgia Tech (2002-03)- Bosh did not do too much for the Yellow Jackets in terms of postseason play but is this high because of how he was able to continually be the best player on the court throughout his only college season. Bosh averaged 16 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 56 percent from the field. The Jackets only made it to the NIT but it was not because of the forward. It could be argued that Bosh was the most dominant freshman of the past decade. He was selected fourth overall in the 2003 draft by the Raptors, where he continued to be good but not enjoy any team success. After signing with Miami last season he has come closer to team success.

1. Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina (2005-06)- Arguably the best player of any age in the conference for the past decade, Hansbrough was also the best freshman. The center ended his career at North Carolina as the ACC’s all time leading scorer, but that all started during his first season in Chapel Hill. He averaged 18.9 points and 7.8 rebounds a game while garnering the ACC freshman of the year award. He led a team that was supposed to be rebuilding to a 23-8 record and a second round exit from the NCAA tournament. Hansbrough has gone on to have a successful NBA career, being one of the first players of the bench for the Indiana Pacers.

Honorable Mention: Austin Rivers, Duke (12), Harrison Barnes, UNC (11), Sylven Landesberg, UVa (09), Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake (09), Jeff Teague, Wake (08), Kyle Singler, Duke (08), Jeff Allen, VT (08), Brandon Costner, NC State (07), Javaris Crittenton, GT (07), Ty Lawson, UNC (07), Greivis Vasquez, Maryland (07), Raymond Felton, UNC (03), Julius Hodge, NC State (02)

Friday, March 30, 2012

Next Year Predictions Already??

Ok, things are just beginning to change in the ACC with the most recent new of North Carolina’s Kendall Marshall, John Henson, and Harrison Barnes leaving early but the landscape in the conference is also becoming more clear for next season. Austin Rivers of Duke and Dion Waiters of Syracuse (who, along with Pittsburgh, is joining the conference in the coming years) are the only other conference underclassmen who have declared for the NBA draft. Now Syracuse and Pitt are both possibilities to join next season, but may not. Either way, this is how it would play out in my mind if the teams stayed as they are now.

1. Duke
Losing: SG Austin Rivers- The team’s best playmaker and leading scorer left to fulfill his dream of playing in the NBA. The only true playmaker on the team, Duke does not lose much on defense. F/C Miles Plumlee- The senior captain of the team came on late as a rebounder, including a Coach K era record 22 boards against Maryland. Strongest player down low.
Returning: G Seth Curry- The best offensive weapon returning improved his defense as the season went along. A great long-range shooter proved he could score in other ways during stretches. F/C Mason Plumlee- The big man led the team in rebounding and may have been the best athlete on the squad. Needs to continue to work on his post moves and free throw shooting. F Ryan Kelly- Can stretch the court unlike any player in the conference with his outside shooting and length (6-11). PG Tyler Thornton- The team’s best on the ball defender helps his team by leading with energy. Needs to continue working towards being able to fully run the point. SG Andre Dawkins- The first person anyone thinks of when describing inconsistency. Can make the outside shot look very easy or go scoreless with a few turnovers. F Josh Hairston- A big body who hustles and plays good defense. PG Quinn Cook- The team’s best ball handler showed signs of great passing at times. Will probably gain more time with the departure of Rivers and could end up being the starting point guard.
Adding: F/C Marshall Plumlee-The freshman redshirted this season but has been called the best pure post player of any of the brothers. F Alex Murphy- Said to play like his brother at Florida, meaning a good outside shooter who can rebound. SG Rasheed Sulaimon- Incoming freshman is one of the top shooting guards in the country and just won the McDonald’s All-American 3-point contest.
Bottom Line: The loss of Rivers could go either way for Duke. Sure, he was their top offensive weapon, but also went against Coach K’s philosophy and ended in too many one on one scenarios for the Blue Devils. This will become Curry’s team and the consistency of the guard play, along with the maturity of the bigs, will determine whether Duke can make a late run.

2. NC State
Losing: SF CJ Williams- The senior leader of this squad has to be up for most improved player in the conference, if not the country this year. Hard work, hustle, and best body to battle opposing swingmen will be missed. PG Alex Johnson- Transfer came in and immediately made an impact with both his ball handling and outside shot.
Returning: PF CJ Leslie- One of the best talents in the country should come back and be a preseason All-ACC pick. Versatility to shoot a mid range shot and attacks the rim. PG Lorenzo Brown- Maybe the biggest upside of any player on the roster continued to get used to his role as ball handler as the season continued. Athletic freak that can drive and shoot. G/F Scott Wood- Arguably the best shooter in the conference was streaky at the end of the season. Opponents began to expend most of their energy in shutting down his outside shot. F/C Richard Howell- Best post player on the team almost averaged a double double. Should come back as a more aware player who will stay out of constant foul trouble. F Deshawn Painter- A good option off the bench has length and strength down low. An improved mid-range game will make him the best sixth man in the conference. C Jordan Vandenberg- The big Australian mysteriously never returned after injuring his shoulder in December. The big man takes up space however, and is one of the taller players in the country. F Tyler Harris- Little used but big upside with excellent athleticism. PF Thomas de Thaey- Also used sparingly but was called on when bigs got into foul trouble.
Adding: SF TJ Warren- Although not necessarily a great athlete, Warren has worked his way up to a top recruit with a solid build and an excellent shot. G Rodney Purvis- An excellent offensive weapon who can score and pass and is listed as one of the top guards in the country. PG Tyler Lewis- Leader who has excellent vision and knowledge of the point guard position.
Bottom Line: NC State is looking forward to next season. Their recruiting class is listed as one of the tops in the country, as all three are McDonald’s All-Americans. However they will have to figure out a true leader of the team, and Brown seems to fit that mould. Look for this team to continue to improve throughout the season and be near the top of the ACC standings come year’s end.

3. Syracuse
Losing: F Kris Joseph- The team’s leading scorer was an all-Big East performer this season and was the go-to player in the clutch for the Orange. G Scoop Jardine- The fifth year senior was the team leader in assists and was a co-captain. Hated by other teams, but loved by his teammates. SG Dion Waiters- Maybe the most talented player on the deep Orange squad was lost at times, including a couple boneheaded plays that led to the end of Syracuse’s season in the Elite Eight.
Returning: SG Brandon Triche- Very athletic guard was also streaky. Ability to go on runs in a game where he was the best shooter and also scoring off the bounce, but also the ability to get lost on defense and turn the ball over too much on offense. C Fab Melo- The Big East defensive player of the year may have improved more than anyone in the country this season. Had off the court problems in the classroom and it would not be surprising if he spurned the college scene. F CJ Fair- A long, athletic big with the ability to shoot mid range shots over most players in the country. Also inconsistent, had the ability to score 20 points in a game at times. SF James Southerland- Maybe the best shooter on the team, came on late as a serious threat from outside. Another streaky player who could break into stardom. F/C Rakeem Christmas- The freshman was thrust into a starting role after Melo was suspended for the NCAA tournament. A talent that is waiting to mature.
Adding: C/F DeJuan Coleman- A big body who is a tremendous rebounder and low post scorer. F Jerami Grant- Good offensive player who needs to add strength to his slender frame.
Bottom Line: Another good year could be shaping up for the Orange but the team needs to come together and play consistently up to their capabilities if they want to return to the final eight.

4. Florida State
Losing: F Bernard James- The team leader among bigs. 27-year-old seemed to have an awareness of his surrounding that cannot be replaced. SG Deividas Dulkys¬- Maybe the team’s best outside shooter, improved his defense by the end of the season, and worked off his inconsistent offense with consistent hustle. PG Luke Loucks- The floor general for the Seminoles continued to improve throughout his career. Heads up play may have only been matched by Marshall within the ACC. C/F Xavier Gibson- Talented athlete made his presence known on defense and around the rim on offense. A great dunker who seemed to amp up his teammates. G Jeff Peterson- One of the first players off the bench had the ability to shoot and pass. Strong but short guard made the most of his time on the court. C Jon Kreft- Another player who improved mightily as the season progressed. A hard worker who fixed his low post game.
Returning: SG Michael Snaer- Florida State’s best player was a second team All-conference selection and All-defensive selection. A hustle player who was there to make the clutch shot needs to continue improving his expanding, offensive game. G Ian Miller- A shoot first player who was second on the team in scoring despite coming off the bench. Should start next season and be one of the first couple of option on offense. Needs to improve his sight. PF Terrance Shannon- Big man averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds off the bench before a shoulder injury ended his season early. Applying for a medical redshirt and will be a key contributor next season. PF Okaro White- Big man came on late as his athleticism made him one of the better defenders on the team. Needs to add strength. G Terry Whisnant- Came in as the top recruit from North Carolina but struggled throughout the season. Could not find his shot and did not make the most of the minutes he got. Will be counted on much more next season.
Adding: G/F Montay Brandon- Athletic wing player is applauded for his versatility and upside. SG Aaron Thomas – Scorer has great range and is very athletic.
Bottom Line: The Seminoles are going through a state of change after this season and need to make adjustments. Snaer, however, has the ability to be the best player in the conference and could team up with Miller to make one of the best backcourts in the country. A successful transition could lead to another long run for the Seminoles.

5. North Carolina
Losing: F/C Tyler Zeller- The ACC player of the year will be missed but there are numerous ways the Tar Heels can go to replace him. Zeller can outrun any big in the country and finished averaging near a double double. PG Kendall Marshall- A pass first guard who can look up the court unlike anyone in the country, has already broken the single season ACC assist record. F Harrison Barnes- Barnes came in as the highest touted recruit since Lebron James but has failed to live up to the high standards set by the media. Thought of as a better fit in the pros, the small forward has the ability to be one of the best in the country. F John Henson- The best shot-blocker this side of Lexington, Henson made his presence known on the offensive end as well, scoring 13.7 points a game. The long forward will be counted on to gain more strength and toughness if he returns. G/F Justin Watts- The do everything senior will be missed more for his leadership and hard work than anything else. Not even close to the best talent on the roster, Watts may have worked harder this season than any Tar Heel.
Returning: G Reggie Bullock- The best outside shooter on North Carolina will be looked to take an increasing role as a scorer. G Dexter Strickland- The guards season was cut short after suffering an ACL tear in the 19th game of the season. The best defender on the team will most certainly jump back into the starting lineup. F James Michael McAdoo- A world of talent and the body that looks ready to make the jump to a premiere player. May be hurting his stock by coming back. G Leslie McDonald- The junior redshirted this season due to injury and will come back as feisty as ever. SG PJ Hairston- Came in as a shooter but wound up shooting less than 30% from long range. This should continue to be his game, and look for it to only improve.
Adding: PG Marcus Paige- One of the top incoming point guards would do great to add strength. PF Brice Johnson- The skinny big man is thought of as one of the top players at his position. C Joel James- One of the biggest recruits (280 pounds) in the country is known for his defense. SF JP Tokoto- The swingman is best known for his athleticism.
Bottom Line: The Tar Heels have the most to lose or most to win this offseason. They could end up losing five of their top seven players or coming back fully loaded. If everyone comes back they could be the early favorite to win a national title.


6. Miami
Losing: G Malcolm Grant- An all around player was looked to for late scoring. A driver by nature, was asked to play both guard positions and was known for good defense. SF DeQuan Jones- A good wing option who was always known as a role player but developed into a good defender and rebounder.
Returning: PF Kenny Kadji- A player with good size (6-11, 250) who can play with his back to the basket or from the outside. Was the most consistent player for a team that remained inconsistent. Transfer from Florida will be focal point of the offense next season. C Reggie Johnson- The biggest player in the conference (284 pounds) is remembered for his dominating performance in the win over Duke (27 points, 12 rebounds) but never played completely healthy this season. Could develop into the best low post scorer in the ACC if completely healthy. SG Durand Scott- The team’s emotional leader is a natural scorer who has improved his defense. The go-to player for the Hurricanes in the clutch will be the main threat from the outside next season. PG Shane Larkin- The All-Freshman team player showed off his quickness throughout the season and improved his passing. A pesty defender, should be amongst the top point guards in the conference next season. SG Rion Brown- Showed flashes of a top-notch offensive game while battling injuries. Tough player needs to work on staying consistent. G/F Trey McKinney Jones- A pure athlete who improved his long range shooting. Should return better defensively and could earn minutes when playing against good opposing small forwards. G/F Garrius Adams- Tore his meniscus early in the season and ended a campaign in which he was once again improving. Strong swingman was missed during second half of season.
Adding: SG Melvin Johnson- Another among a now long line of New Yorkers to commit to Miami, Johnson is a scorer at heart and regarded as a top player at his position.
Bottom Line: Without a huge class coming in Miami needs the return of Kadji and Johnson. Both of them, plus Scott and Larkin could be all-conference performers. This team was among the first out of the NCAA tournament but do not expect a healthy Hurricanes team to be left out next season.

7. Maryland
Losing: G/F Sean Mosley- The defensive stopper for the team this year was very versatile. A good build allowed Mosley to play opposing point guards or power forwards. C Berend Weijs- Skinny center played more this season but lost minutes at the end of the season to freshman Alex Len.
Returning: G Terrell Stoglin- The conference’s top scorer was named second team all-conference. He spurned to NBA draft to come back and Terps fans hope he can work on becoming more of a team player. G/F Nick Faust- The sensational freshman continued to improve as the season went on. An athletic specimen who can score from anywhere showed the ability to play anywhere from point guard to small forward. PF James Padgett- The best low post player all season for the team seemed to lose confidence with the emergence of other players but stayed the most consistent big on the team. Better defense and continued low post moves will complete a solid improvement. PG Pe’Shon Howard- Missed the second half of the season with a foot injury and was soon realized as one of the most important players in the conference. Stoglin and Faust were forced to play more point, which is not the natural position of either. Led the team in assists and was a good on-the-ball defender. Alex Len- Perhaps the best pro prospect on the team, the seven footer continued to improve and show of an impressive plethora of offensive moves as the season continued. Will be look to as a serious offensive weapon next season. F Ashton Pankey- The redshirt freshman showed his ability on the defensive end and on the boards. May earn a spot right off the bench next season and get significant minutes when opposing big men are having a good night. SG Mychal Parker- A good rebounder for a guard, turned the ball over too much. Should continue to add depth next season.
Adding: C Shaquille Cleare- A wide body who has great hands and good rebounding ability lacks a mid-range game. SF Jake Layman- An athletic swingman who can score from deep needs to add strength. PF/C Charles Mitchell- Another big body that plays bigger than his 6-7 frame but lacks pure athleticism.
Bottom Line: Coach Mark Turgeon is letting his presence be known by bringing in one of the best recruiting classes in the conference. The return of Stoglin, Faust, Howard, Padgett, and Len sets up a good starting five to mature the freshmen. Look for Maryland to make a push toward the NCAA tournament.


8. Virginia
Losing: PF Mike Scott- Perhaps the worse loss of a single player for any team in the conference, Scott was the bailout guy for the Cavaliers. He played as a power forward but had the ability to shoot from the outside and was gifted as a defender. G Sammy Zeglinski- The starting shooting guard and backup point guard for the Cavaliers may have been their best long-range weapon. He developed nicely into a defensive stopper and his leadership will be missed. C Assane Sene- A big man who showed so much promise continued to fight injuries throughout his career and had to end his final year after 19 games. A shot blocker who rebounded with the best of them would have been a huge boost this past season.
Returning: F/G Joe Harris- The Cavalier best offensive weapon not named Mike Scott was a good outside scorer who could also put the ball on the floor. If not for a hand injury, the end of his season could have gone much better. Will be looked at for leadership next season. PG Jontel Evans- Maybe the quickest player in the conference will need to improve his outside shot. A continued improvement of his vision could make him a dangerous driver in the form of a Ty Lawson. G/F Malcolm Brogdon- The freshman showed signs of true talent before being injured late in the season. He should come back as a serious weapon for the Cavalier and showed a lot of interest in Tony Bennett’s defensive formula. F/C Akil Mitchell- The lanky big man proved himself as a rebounder and continued to get better as a shot blocker as the season progressed. More weight to a slender frame will help the sophomore. PF Darion Atkins- Should make a two-headed lengthy nightmare for opponents when teaming up with Mitchell down low and with more strength will become a serious rebounding threat. G/F Paul Jesperson- The freshman was supposed to redshirt until the plethora of injuries left no other option than to bring him off the bench. He was clearly not ready for the college game but showed promise as a shooter.
Adding: SF Justin Anderson- A defensive minded athlete who fits perfectly in Bennett’s system and will do great to learn under Harris. F Evan Nolte- Known as a good shooter, his 6-8 frame makes it tough for opponents to defend him on the outside. C Mike Tobey- A player with all the potential in the world needs to get stronger to add to his already stellar ability to block shots.

9. Pittsburgh
Losing: G Ashton Gibbs- The only player who got significant time in Pitt’s final four days of three years ago leaves the program after having his (and the team’s) worst season. A pure scorer who enjoyed playing defense, his leadership will be missed. SF Nasir Robinson- A swing player who can score in a variety ways and rebound well for his position. His strength and apparent love for hustle are the biggest losses for the Panthers.
Returning: PG Tray Woodall- A pass first player who led the team in assists will be looked at for more scoring next season with the departure of Gibbs. A big factor in the Panthers’ success will be whether or not Woodall can handle more of a burden. SF Lamar Patterson- A slasher with a well-rounded game, has the ability to lead this team in points and rebounds from a smaller position next year. Could step into a leadership role. G/F JJ Moore- Another talented wing player who enjoys jacking up the threes. Needs to work on consistency from deep but could be another scoring weapon. PF Dante Taylor- Maybe the biggest key for the Panthers because he will be the main option in the post. A solid rebounder with good size, will have to improve on his defense. F Talib Zanna- Another forward who will be forced into more work in the paint than anywhere else. Minutes went up tremendously this year and should continue next season. PG John Johnson- The freshman will be counted on much more next year and showed signs of being a good passer. He will be Woodall’s immediate backup and should improve on his minutes played. SG Cameron Wright- The freshman struggled at times this year but showed signs of being able t do some dirty work. An improved shot will give him more minutes.
Adding: C Steven Adams- An athletic big man who enjoys playing defense needs to add strength. PG James Robinson- A good passer will be used sparingly but should do good to learn under Woodall.
Bottom Line: The good news for the Panthers is that they had depth last season. The bad news is that they are losing two key parts and Adams should be the only freshman coming in to get significant playing time. Everyone needs to step up in order for this team to be in the top half of the conference.

10. Virginia Tech
Losing: G/F Dorenzo Hudson- The team leader had the ability and body to match up with opponents of all sizes and offensive skills from long range. A bit of a quiet year this year after saying farewell to the Malcolm Delaney led offense and hello to the Erick Green led team. PF Victor Davila- The oft-injured forward was known more for his ability to match up with anyone in the low post but never felt comfortable in the system because he was never on the court for a long enough amount of time.
Returning: G Erick Green- The all-conference performer led the team in points, assists, and steals and played both the guard positions. A talented scorer also improved on the defensive end and will continue to be the team leader next season. F Jarell Eddie- A good scorer who can put the ball in the basket inside and out improved defensively this year. Should be a leader next season and will be asked to play a variety of positions. SG Robert Brown- A slasher who came into the league as a scorer. Did not get a tremendous amount of minutes playing behind Green but should develop into a nice complement. PF Dorian Finney-Smith- The best big man on the roster is unique in that he can guard opposing centers and also stretch them with his outside game. More athletic than most big men, Finney-Smith was able to score at will at times late in the season. C Cadarian Raines- There is a lot of talent with Raines and if his low post game continues to get better he could develop into a NBA talent. Although he led the team in blocks (25) he needs to improve on the defensive end. F CJ Barksdale- Another member of a good freshman class this year for the Hokies, Barksdale has the ability to slash or play with his back to the basket. Needs to improve his consistency and mid-range game.
Adding: PF Montrezl Harrell- A big time athlete who puts everything into every moment on the court needs to work on his mid-range game.
Bottom Line: This may be do-or-die for coach Seth Greenburg. And yes, everyone has said that for three years now, but with the return of a star in Green and a young team full of talent, Greenberg has to return the Hokies to the top of the conference.

11. Georgia Tech
Losing: G/F Glen Rice, Jr.- The talented son of a former NBA star, Rice continued to have off the court issues. He was kicked off the team a couple weeks after a nightclub incident led to arrests. G Nick Foreman- Although not a regular, he would come off the bench and give the Yellow Jackets a spark on the defensive end for a few minutes every game. G Pierre Jordan- Another bench player who similarly would come in to give a quick boost of energy. Was best known for his ability to steal on the defensive end.
Returning: PG Mfon Udofia- Perhaps the most important player on the team not including Rice, Udofia is known for his quickness and passing. A good motor should come back as the team leader as a senior. F Kammeon Holsey- Can play either forward position and is athletically talented. Part of the group of Jackets that can jump out of the gym, needs to continuing improving as a rebounder. C Daniel Miller- Perhaps the best draft prospect on the team because of his size, Miller continues to be a work in progress. The seven footer has shown signs of developing post moves and blocking ability. He needs to continue to learn the game and become a force for this team. SF Jason Morris- Maybe the most athletic player on an athletic team, Morris is the best dunker in the conference. He can score in bunches but needs to expand his game and could become a shut down defender. SG Brandon Reed- The long-range threat remains inconsistent but has Jackets fans hoping for an Anthony Morrow result. A talented player needs to work on scoring from other places when his three point shot is not working. F Julian Royal- A big man needs to work on becoming more of a force. Could be a great rebounder with more work.
Adding: C Robert Carter- One of the best big men in a class dominated by centers, Carter has soft hands and good touch around the rim. SF Marcus Hunt- A good sized small forward is known for his athleticism. He could contend for minutes with the numerous other athletes on this roster. SG Chris Bolden- A good shooter who can score in a variety of ways should jump right in for the Yellow Jackets.
Bottom Line: The Jackets have the most upside out of the bottom teams in the conference, and if there talent comes together could make a splash. A good recruiting class only adds hope, and I see Georgia Tech trying to break into the top half of the league by the end of next season.

12. Clemson
Losing: PG Andre Young- The team leader in assists was also the vocal leader and leaves Clemson among the top five in scoring, assists and steals. His work ethic and leadership ability will be missed the most. SG Tanner Smith- The senior put on his best performances near the end of his career and helped rally the Tigers to a good finish of the season. A good shooter who plays hard. F Brian Narcisse- A high flyer who stepped away from most outside looks was considered a good defender and shot blocker.
Returning: F/C Devin Booker- Booker has to come back with the philosophy that this is his team. He has the strength to battle anyone and his post moves improved tremendously. More work on the defensive end and a better mid-range game could make him an NBA prospect. F Milton Jennings- The most talented player on the roster has the ability to shoot from the outside, make post moves, and block shots. Consistency and a better mental game are the biggest needs in order for him to be a star. C Catalin Baciu- A big man (7-2) did not get enough minutes because of his lack of endurance. An improved work ethic and he could come back as a starter and a solid shot blocker. PG KJ McDaniels- The freshman may have to step up more than anyone else on the team in order to replace Young. A quick first step gives him a great drive but a lack of vision hurt his assist totals. G/F Rod Hall- Showed a lot of promise early in the season but seemed to fade away as others stepped up. He’ll be put more in the spotlight next season and needs to continue improving this year. G TJ Sapp- Is going to be looked for in order to help replace Young and Smith, has the ability to be a big time player, just needs to realize his potential. G Devin Coleman- Another freshman guard got inconsistent playing time because of the plethora of guards on the team. Should get more minutes next season as a serious player for coach Brad Brownell.
Adding: PG Adonis Filer- Won’t be counted on to play too many minutes in year one but should gain more attention with his natural ability as his game matures. C Landry Nnoko- An athletic center needs to add a lot of weight but may be counted on early with a lack of bigs on the roster.
Bottom Line: Clemson loses its two top players and will need to do a quick turn around. Brownell institutes working hard but it might not be enough to get this team ready for an NCAA tournament appearance.


13. Boston College
Losing: PG John Cahill- The only player who will receive any notice for not being there next year is Cahill. A decent back up point guard with good eyes, he should be easily replaced.
Returning: PF Ryan Anderson- Maybe the best freshman not named Austin Rivers in the conference ended up being the team go-to-guy by the end of the season. A good rebounder with a smooth game, Anderson will have to continue getting better on the offensive end. G Matt Humphrey- A talented guard who can play both the point and as a wing was the leader for the Eagles. A decent long-range shooter, struggled when guarded by larger defenders. C Dennis Clifford- The seven footer may be the biggest key for this team next season. He needs to be able to assert himself better and continue to improve on his team leading 29 blocks. SG Patrick Heckmann- The German freshman struggled with injuries all season but showed his talent when he was playing. A good long-range shooter with decent rebounding abilities, Heckmann should settle in as team’s best long-range threat. G Lonnie Jackson- Another combo guard who did a little bit of everything for this team. When I say a “little”, I mean a little. Jackson needs to expand his game and be able to face off against opposing defenders better. PG Jordan Daniels- The most improved player on the roster settled into a starting point guard role by season’s end. An incredibly quick player, Daniels should be a good leader and distributer for this team next year. G Gabe Moton- Used a little less than the other players listed here, Moton is called in if the team needs a three. Moton should continue working on his shot and fade into this role.
Adding: PG Olivier Hanlan- Another quick point guard should be Daniels’ backup, and an adequate one at that.
Bottom Line: The Eagles suffered their worst season in recent memory this year. But it’s ok, because four of their top five players were freshman and Anderson has the capability to be really good. Expect an improvement, but it may be a couple years before they return to the upper echelon in the conference.

14. Wake Forest
Losing: F Nikita Mescheriakov- The senior leader of the team made sure his loss did not go unnoticed when his career’s best came out at the end of the season. A tall wing player who was forced to guard larger opponents never shied away. PG Tony Channault- The team’s leader in assists is transferring after never fitting in at Wake. He was a good talent but never showed off his full potential. He wants to be closer to his family in Philadelphia. C Ty Walker- The career of the big man ended poorly with a suspension for violating team rules. Main objective was rebounding but he never seemed totally team-oriented.
Returning: G CJ Harris: A big time scorer could play either guard position and finished with a 16.7 point per game mark. Improved defense needs to continue in the trend that it is going now and he needs to be utilized more as a shooting guard than as a point. F Travis McKie- Another big time scorer who was not quite sure of his role all year. Had the ability to put up 25 points but was never clear on whether he was a small or power forward. The best rebounder on the team needs help down low. SG Chase Fischer- A three point specialist who really struggled from deep the majority of the season. He should be placed into a starting role next year but needs to adapt his game in order to help both him and Harris succeed. C Carson Desrosiers- Maybe the most important player for the Deacons next year, Desrosiers can add stability inside. A big body who is a good rebounder, needs to stay in shape and be able to play 30 minutes a game.
Adding: PG Codi Miller-McIntyre- With the loss of Channault, he may be asked to do a lot from the start. Wake’s best recruit is tough with a good mid-range game but lacks pure speed. SF Arnaud Moto- The slasher has continued questions about his health. SF Aaron Rountree- The lengthy forward has the ability to run the floor and could free up space for shooters.
Bottom Line: Wake needs to turn it around, and fast. The ability to get Harris and McKie to become the ultimate superstars is there, they just need to find it. A system that gets the two of them the ball where they want has to be developed. It is a long shot, but if everyone comes back on the right page, they could dig out of the ACC cellar.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Time to Step Up: Who's Next in the ACC

Duke's Ryan Kelly and Florida State's Ian Miller (30) could take on a much larger role for their teams next season. -photo via US Presswire.

Let’s take a look at the players who may have not had the biggest roles on their teams this year and are ready for the spotlight next season. This list is taking into account both players that are graduating and players that are possibly going to the NBA.

1. James Michael McAdoo, North Carolina- The freshman came on strong late in the season, culminating with a team high 15 points in the loss to Kansas. McAdoo has been high on almost all draft boards and is predicted as a top ten pick if he chooses to go. The thoughts of most outsiders are that he will stay, however. The loss of Tyler Zeller to graduation already opens up a starting spot for him, and if John Henson were to declare, McAdoo would become the focal point of Carolina’s inside game.

2. Ian Miller, Florida State- Miller has high hopes, and is listed as a first rounder on a lot of draft boards. If he were to return to Tallahassee, which it seems he will do, he will become the beginning and end of the Seminoles offense. He was second on the team at 11 points per game, but did it coming off the bench. A streaky outside shooter, Miller has the ability to create his own shots, and at 6-3, has the size to shoot over a lot of opposing point guards. The biggest need for improvement is his vision and passing ability. A shoot first, shoot second player, Miller needs to change his philosophy before next season.

3. Ryan Kelly, Duke- The Blue Devils are losing Miles Plumlee and possibly Mason Plumlee as well. That means there will be a humongous hole in the inside that needs to be filled. Duke redshirted younger brother Marshall Plumlee and 6-8 Alex Murphy this season. Both came in as highly touted recruits but will not be expected to step right into stardom. Kelly, who has the ability to stretch the floor unlike anyone in the conference, has to be the middleman here. Not only is he going to be counted on to defend other bigs, but also has to become a larger part of the offense.

4. Richard Howell, NC State- This is completely based on CJ Leslie deciding to go pro or not. With Leslie out, Howell will immediately become the main post player for NC State and will have to carry an extra burden, as the Wolfpack will not be deep inside. Howell’s main problem was his foul trouble, as he average a team high 3.4 fouls per game and fouled out of four key losses late in the season. No one doubts his abilities, however, as he averages near a double double a game (10.7 ppg, 9.3 rpg).

5. Jontel Evans, Virginia- Virginia is losing Mike Scott, yes, but they are also losing senior Sammy Zeglinski, perhaps their best outside threat and backup point guard. Evans was the starter at the point and has to expand his game. He proved numerous times that he is as quick, if not quicker, than anyone in the league when his drives seemed to be the focal point of the Cavaliers offense every time Scott was on the bench. Evans has a terrible outside shot, however, and although that probably will not improve tremendously, he needs to improve his vision for Virginia’s other outside shooters.

6. Pe’Shon Howard, Maryland- Howard proved he is the most valuable player on this Maryland team during his absence due to injury. ACC scoring champion Terrell Stoglin along with sensational freshman Nick Faust were thrust into the point guard position when Howard went down. Neither is a true point guard, and both struggled at times with this role. Those two, along with Alex Len and a crop of solid freshmen coming in, need someone to give them the ball. The weapons are there for Maryland, and Howard has a chance to become the top assist man in the conference.

7. Jason Morris, Georgia Tech- Perhaps the greatest leaper in the conference, Morris came on hot at the end of the season. His game seemed to take on a new level after the suspension of Glen Rice, Jr. and he proved himself on both end of the court. Morris is going to be counted on as not only the top swing player on this team, but along with Mfon Udofia, the leader of the offense. The sophomore needs to improve his shot and has the ability to become a shut down defender.

8. Cadarian Raines, Virginia Tech- Raines (6-9, 240) is maybe the only player on the Virginia Tech roster who has the size to battle other teams on the inside. He came on late, including averaging over 13 points and 6 boards during a three game stretch against top teams in February. Raines, and Dorian Finney-Smith, who prefers to play from the outside, will be the centerpieces at the big positions and may prove to be the key to the Hokies success.

9. Jordan Daniels, Boston College- The Eagles future centers on Ryan Anderson, the second best freshman in the conference this season. The team started four freshman, including Daniels, and their junior leader, Matt Humphrey. Daniels continued to improve as the season went along and is one of the quicker players in the conference. He is clearly a pass first player and with improvements to the rest of the roster he should be able to improve upon his 2.6 assists per game.

10. TJ Sapp, Clemson- Sapp had a mediocre year, with poor per game averages (3.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg). With the departures of Andre Young and Tanner Smith in the backcourt, Sapp is pushed into a starting role. The freshman showed his quickness and athleticism, but has failed to show off any scoring or passing prowess. He has quick hands (22 steals) and seems to fit coach Brad Brownell’s system of going hard every play, but a huge improvement is needed for the young fella to step in and be a leader of this team.

11. Trey McKinney Jones, Miami- The Hurricanes starting lineup was pretty set in stone by the end of the year and Jones may have been the first one left off of it. But with the departure of Malcolm Grant, Jones could be thrust into a starting role. The junior showed his ability score from outside or on the drive and had a big role on the boards for Miami as well. Jones gives Miami an option as a swing player and another player for freshman Shane Larkin to feed off of drives.

12. Chase Fischer, Wake Forest- Wake goes into the offseason with perhaps more questions than any team in the conference. Fischer could help answer those with a tremendous offseason. A shooting guard by nature, Fischer needs to work on his passing and defense and develop into a point guard. CJ Harris will be the starter and centerpiece for the offense from the two guard spot and Travis McKie is the only other definite part of this team, from his power forward position. Tony Chennault was most certainly going to be the starter at point guard for this team, but decided to transfer. Now Fischer, who showed his scoring ability against Miami and Boston College, has the ability to feed these players the ball, and start the offense for the Deacons.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Don't Blame Marshall, Carolina Just Ran Into It's Toughest Matchup

Was point guard Kendall Marshall's lack of availability really the reason Carolina lost Sunday? -photo via Charlie Riedel

When North Carolina lost to Kansas this weekend there were immediate question for coach Roy Williams and the team about whether Kendall Marshall's injury was the reason for the defeat. Marshall had been repeatedly referred to as the most indispensable player on any team in the ACC, even the nation. After backup point guard and starting shooting guard Dexter Strickland went down Marshall was averaging near 35 minutes a game. Stillman White or senior Justin Watts running the point for about the other five minutes of the game supplanted his breathers. Neither were viable backups, White being a freshman who was given a scholarship because there was a last minute opening for one, nor Watts, being a do-everything veteran who was better suited as a defender. But when looking across the way at Kansas, one can see that it was the Jayhawks, rather than North Carolina injuries, that caused the Tar Heels to fall one game short of reaching the first final four since 2009.

Kansas' starting five is one of the best in the country. Not only that, they are arguably the most well rounded. Point guard Tyshawn Taylor is the senior leader of the team and had been applauded all year for his offensive ability. If Marshall had been in the game the two most certainly would have been matched up. Two things to argue here to prove that the Tar Heels’ point guard would not have made a difference: Marshall is not recognized for being a great defender, and a good on-the-ball defender is not the way to slow Marshall down. The sophomore has beaten the best defenders on opposite teams such as Duke’s Tyler Thornton, Virginia’s Jontel Evans, and Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor not off the dribble, but by passing up the court and starting a fast break before the opposing defense could set up. Granted White cannot do this as well as Marshall, but the freshman came in and dished out seven assists without a turnover in the loss to the Jayhawks. The Tar Heels, especially in the first half, were trying to push the tempo and play the same way they had all year. It worked, too, as Carolina put up 47 first half points and Tyler Zeller was getting his quick under the basket, fast-break layups while Harrison Barnes was heating up after receiving passes from White before the defense was set up to stop him.

The key to beating Carolina with Marshall was always to play better offensively. You saw it when Duke’s Austin Rivers scored 29 points on the Tar Heels, or when Florida State guard scorched them with eight threes. Taylor, more than any other point guard in the country, has the ability to score. Against Marshall, White, Watts, or any defender on the Carolina squad, he was ready to put up the 22 points he ended with. Running into guards that could put up big point totals had been an issue for Carolina all year long, and no matter what you were going to throw at him Taylor was ready to answer. Rivers may have been the closest thing to Taylor in the ACC in terms of scoring ability from the backcourt, but even he did not possess the maturity to score at will all the time.

National Player of the Year candidate Thomas Robinson (0) presented a frontcourt matchup Carolina had never seen before. -photo via Charlie Riedel

The next matchup that hurt the Tar Heels was in the frontcourt. UNC had utilized their size inside all year to beat up teams and it was only vulnerable when matched up with teams that had size to match it. Losses to Kentucky and Florida State twice can be attributed to the fact that these teams had the length to matchup with Zeller and John Henson down low. Kansas’ front line seems to go unnoticed because they play in the same conference as Baylor, which has three lengthy big men that are ready for NBA stardom, and are player of the year candidate Thomas Robinson seems to have lost that distinction to Kentucky’s phenomenal freshman Anthony Davis. But the duo of Robinson and Big 12 defensive player of the year Jeff Withey are a low post tandem that needs to be recognized with the best. Both teams came out shooting lights out in the first half, and Robinson was no exception, scoring 14 of his 18 points in the opening sequence. Withey has the size, shot blocking ability, and toughness to matchup with ACC player of the year Zeller, something that the Carolina senior never saw in conference play. Zeller was held to 12 points and six rebounds, a line that looks impressive, but is not when speaking of the senior. Withey outplayed him, finishing with 15 points, eight boards, and three blocks.

Harrison Barnes seemed to be the key though. The media has attacked the sophomore since the game for not stepping up. He came in as the top recruit and many thought he was the best prep player since Lebron James, giving him a reputation that would have only be fulfilled if he had been an All-American. But Barnes, who came into the halftime break scorching hot, was shut down in the second half by Travis Releford, Kansas’ best perimeter defender, and finished with 13 points. Barnes has been criticized impeccably for the past couple months for not stepping up, a player with so much talent is disappointing if he could not step in as the power forward in Henson’s ACC tournament absence or be the leader with the ball in Marshall’s absence. But Barnes, who continues to live as a wing player who does best when pulling up for a mid-range jumper, was shut down by Releford, who has done the same job with Missouri’s Marcus Denmon, Georgetown’s Jason Clarke, and Texas A&M’s Kris Middleton.

All in all, these matchups are where North Carolina has hurt opposing teams in the past and have been hurt when teams have the firepower to combat their attack. Give credit to Jayhawks’ coach Bill Self for implementing the triangle and two defense that may have confused White and UNC’s offense, but it was more about the matchups that gave the Tar Heels trouble than the set zones. Roy Williams mentioned this in the press conference after the game, saying “they may have used the triangle and two a play or two” but clearly that was not what he thought lost them the game. So whether Marshall, who may have added a few more assists and some scoring to the mix, was in or not, I think this game came down more to Kansas’ ability to use their strengths to combat Carolina’s strengths in a way that the Tar Heels have only seen in their losses this year.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Recapping Florida State's Season: A Disappointing, Good Season


Florida State was an interesting case all season, to say the least. The Seminoles had one of the most experienced teams (six seniors) and one of the most talented, especially defensively, teams in the country. All that wound up in a number three seed in the ACC tournament, a 12-4 record in conference, a school-first ACC tournament title, and a number three seed in the NCAA tournament. Coach Leonard Hamilton was named ACC coach of the year and both Bernard James and Michael Snaer were named to the All-ACC defensive team. All in all it was more than a successful season for the ‘Noles, but it was not necessarily smooth sailing the whole way.

November: Grade B-. The result in November that sticks out most when looking at Florida State’s results is the five-point loss to Harvard. The Seminoles caught a lot of flack for the loss and the question later in the year that was constantly brought up is how this team could have lost a game like that to an Ivy League school. You have to take into account, however, that Harvard was not their worst loss. They would go on to have two worse losses against ACC foes. Either way, November was unstable for the Seminoles. They were not ranked in the preseason polls but gathered some votes for honorable mention and were picked to finish third in the conference. After a win over Jacksonville they slid into the rankings and continued by winning four straight after that. They ventured to the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas as the 20th best team in the country and dismantled Massachusetts. Flying high, the Seminoles were beat at their own game by the Crimson, 46-41. Then they lost an overtime thriller to then-number-four Connecticut to finish the tournament. A trip to Michigan State was not what they needed to ease the pain and suddenly they were on a three game losing streak. Record after November: 5-3, Unranked.

Bernard James, Delvydas Dulkys (back) and Florida State could not stop Harvard in the Bahamas. -photo via gocrimson.com

December: C. Much like other teams, Florida State only played five games in the month of December but it was not pretty. Coming into the month reeling and tired after playing four games in seven days, the Seminoles were able to get rid of some anger against a decent-at-best Charleston Southern team and then were really quite unimpressive in a win over UNC-Greensboro, who was in the midst of a nine game losing streak. At this point it looked as though FSU had the athletic ability and defensive prowess to play with anyone but they just kept coming out sluggish. The month ended with a loss at rival Florida and then a triple overtime loss to another Ivy, Princeton. Suddenly, something was very wrong with this team. They only put up ten points, at home, to Princeton. Princeton? At home? Record after December: 8-5, Unranked.

January: A-. The game against Princeton seemed to strike the ‘Noles the wrong way. Or did it? The New Year started with a romp over Auburn, a team from a power-six conference. But then, a twenty point loss to Clemson. Michael Snaer, their leader, was not scoring. Bernard James was grabbing rebounds but not doing anything offensively. They had no role players besides Ian Miller who could not do much more than score. Then Hamilton earned his stripes. Something he said pumped his team up. This same team that had lost to two Ivys and Clemson came back a week later and gave third ranked North Carolina the whooping of a lifetime. UNC coach Roy Williams’ worst defeat came on January 14th in Tallahassee, when the ‘Noles won by 33. Devydas Dulkys was finally another role player (although he would remain somewhat quiet the rest of the year). James and Snaer were looking like all-conference performers, the bench went six deep, led by Miller and Okaro White, both good choices for the best sixth man in the conference. If that was not enough, the team rolled into Durham, Snaer hit a buzzer beater, and they put an end to Duke’s 45-game home winning streak. Talk about a hot team, the Noles ended the month at 14-6 but were the best team in the conference. Record after January: 14-6, 4-1 ACC. Ranked 24 ESPN/21 AP.

Michael Snaer (shooting) and Florida State not only handed UNC their worst loss in the Roy Williams era, they also beat Duke at Cameron. -photo via Getty Images

February: B. Going into February it was a safe pick to say that Florida State was one of the most dangerous teams in the country. They furthered that by beating Virginia at home in what I consider to be the best defensive game all season. But then came their actual worst loss of the season. Yes, Boston College, a lower ranked team in the RPI than Harvard or Princeton, got their best win of the season. An impressive win against a soaring Miami team after that seemed to get them back on track, but they looked very shaky in a win over Virginia Tech. At home, the ‘Noles were down by 8 with a minute and a half left. The Hokies missed their free throws and Florida State, which was having its worst shooting night of the conference season, started hitting everything. “The basketball gods just smiled on us in this one,” Hamilton said afterwards. Snaer hit a three with 2.6 seconds left and the Seminoles escaped with a one point win. A dismantling of NC State was followed by a rematch with Duke in Tallahassee. The crowd, which appeared to be more excited than ever before, was disappointed as the Devils righted the ship. A second straight loss was handed down in Miami, and suddenly Florida State looked shaky again. Record after February: 19-9, 10-4 ACC. Ranked 21 ESPN/21 AP.

March: A-. March for the Seminoles started off incredibly strong. A win at Virginia disappointed the Cavalier seniors but James getting thrown out for kicking Virginia guard Joe Harris tainted the victory. James had been applauded for his maturity all year after spending time serving in the Air Force. “Bernard James- you are better than that,” ESPN analyst Jay Williams would go on to say. But the ‘Noles continued and after finishing the ACC season in third place got rematches with Miami and then Duke in the ACC tournament. They won both and took the season series from both clubs. Now they had North Carolina in the final. The Tar Heels had looked sharp since getting destroyed in Tallahassee and wanted revenge. Not to be had, the ‘Noles beat the fourth ranked Heels and secured their first ever ACC championship. Snaer was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player and was turning into a household name. The Seminoles received a three seed for the Big Dance and were paired up with St. Bonaventure’s, who was coming in hot off of a win in the Atlantic Ten tournament. Florida State was down most of the game but went on a 16-2 run to beat the Bonnies and move on. A popular pick for a lot of people to make a run to the final four, the Seminoles lost their second round matchup to a surging Cincinnati team. The game was close throughout but Cincinnati pulled away at the end and a senior-laden group watched their dreams fade away.

Luke Loucks (3) and Xaver Gibson (1) ended their Seminole career in a disappointing way to Cincinnati. -photo via AP

Next year: Michael Snaer (Jr., Florida State’s leader and a second team all-conference, Snaer will return as one of the favorites to be player of the year in the conference), Ian Miller (So., a true scorer, NBA scouts like Miller’s ability to shoot and put the ball on the floor as a point guard or shooting guard)*, Okaro White (So., long and athletic big man will carry a big burden of replace James and Xavier Gibson), Terrance Shannon (Jr., out for a season ending injury in December, averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds in only seven games. Big man may try for a redshirt), Terry Whisnant (Fr., streaky freshman showed he can score at times, should get more playing time after being behind Miller and Snaer, along with Dulkys and Loucks).

*Pending NBA draft early entry

Incoming Class:
Montay Brandon: 6-4, 180 pound shooting guard. ESPN grade: 95, Scout.com 4 stars- “Brandon, a 6-foot-5 guard that can play anywhere from the wing to the lead guard spot, is an interesting prospect. He spent a lot of time playing on the ball during his final season of summer ball and as a bigger guard he can be effective as a passer and scorer. He's also a high level athlete with a tremendous upside because of his versatility and length. Brandon excels in an up-tempo environment where he can get out on the break.”

Aaron Thomas: 6-5, 195 pound shooting guard. ESPN grade: UR, 4 stars, Scout.com 4 stars- “Thomas is on the right track. Considered mostly a good mid-major prospect as a junior, Thomas simply blew up over the spring and summer. He is one of the best scorers in the class and has big time athleticism. When he is hot, his size and high release allow him to get shots off and put up big numbers. Though it has come a long way his ball handling needs some work. Also defensively he shows very little interest at times.”

Devon Bookert: 6-2, 180 pound point guard. ESPN grade: UR, 3 stars, Scout.com NR.

Robert Gilchrist: 6-9, 210 pound power forward. ESPN grade: UR, Scout.com JC. Junior College transfer.

FSU fans: Get ready for Montay Brandon. -photo via Andrew Shurtleff

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Recapping Duke's Season: The Epitome of "Up-and-Down"


Duke had the most disappointing performance they have had under Mike Krzyzewski when they lost by five to 15th seeded Lehigh. The Blue Devils have had worse season under Coach K, but it is hard to argue that there has ever been a worse performance when the Blue Devils made the tournament. Duke had been booted only twice before under Krzyzewski; in 1996 they lost to Eastern Michigan after gaining an eight seed in the first year the coach was back after surgery, and in 2007, when the 22-11 Devils were thought of as one of the weaker teams in recent memory, and lost to eleventh seeded Virginia Commonwealth as a six seed. But never has a Duke team gotten into the tournament and had a more disappointing season. That is not to say everything went wrong all year for the Dukies…

November: Grade A-. Duke came in as the preseason number two team in the ACC and number six in the country. But the main story of the first month of the year was around Krzyzewski, who entered the year with 900 wins, with the ability to pass his mentor, Bob Knight, for the most coaching wins in Division I men’s basketball history after just three games. With all that surrounding the team, along with a sense of doubt that the team would be relying to heavily on highly touted freshman Austin Rivers, the Devils came out a bit flat. Their first game was a one point victory over Belmont (who ended up being a more impressive team than most though). The response was perfect though. A blowout win of Presbyterian and a five point victory over future-one-seed Michigan State gave Coach K his record 903rd win. The Devils were not done there, though. They went to the Maui Invitational where they beat a decent Tennessee team, top fifteen team in Michigan, and Sweet Sixteen team Kansas to take the preseason tournament. The Blue Devils were rolling high, getting up to number four in the country. But there last game of the month is what makes that grade an A instead of an A-. Duke lost at Ohio State by 22 in the ACC-Big Ten team and looked worse. Suddenly, all the critics were reminded of why they doubted this Duke team. Record after November: 7-1, Ranked 4 in ESPN/3 in AP.

Austin Rivers and Duke were stuffed by Ohio State after a successful November. -photo via Albany Herald.

December: Grade A. The Blue Devils get an A here, but it comes with stipulations. Their best win was against NCAA tournament team Colorado State, which they beat by 23 at home. But the Devils played just four games, and the only other one of note was a six point win against Washington in New York. This month was when Rivers began to emerge, scoring no less than 14 points in any game, and the Devils were clearly looking to him early and often. Record after December: 12-1, Ranked 5 in ESPN/7 in AP.

January: Grade B. January is where everyone began to see what this Duke team was going to be all about: inconsistency. The month started with a blowout of Penn, but was followed up by a fluke loss at Temple, in which they could not stop the hot shooting Owls. The Devils had hit their highest ranking of the season at number three, but quickly dropped them three spots. A win over Virginia was nice for Duke fans, but in all honesty they could not beat the good defense of the Cavaliers and could not stop Mike Scott, the two things Coach K has always instituted into Duke teams. Then the biggest stunner came; Florida State came into Durham and ended the 45 game win streak for the Devils at Cameron. The last five minutes were a perfect representation of Duke’s season: Rivers drove to the rim and made a beautiful play to tie the game, but then everyone seemed to stare while Seminole guard Luke Loucks dribbled past everyone and found an open Michael Snaer, who hit the buzzer beating three. The Devils ended the month with two wins but the victory over St. John’s was described by Krzyzewski as “a loss today for me”. He continued, "I didn't like today. And if my team doesn't like today, then we'll get better. If my team is OK about today, then we're going to fight a little bit, because I'm not going to change on this." One has to wonder where the team mentality actually went from there. Record after January: 19-3, 6-1 ACC, Ranked 5 in ESPN/7 in AP.

Mason Plumlee (5) had Duke in a mediocre spot after a rocky January. -photo via AP

February: Grade A-. February was surprisingly successful for a Duke team that lost its second game at home and had to go to overtime to beat lowly Virginia Tech to avoid their third. But the Blue Devils completed their improbable run to an 8-0 record on the road in the ACC. The month began by beating the Hokies in Blacksburg, a welcome response to the above quote from Krzyzewski. But then the weirdest of weird’s, a home loss to Miami? Duke looked dead when getting down by 14 at the half but worked their way back behind Rivers and Seth Curry, who were clearly the two best playmakers on the team. The game went to overtime and weird again, the Devils missed all six free throws in the extra time. Then they were traveling to Chapel Hill. This could not be good; visiting your archrival after falling to a weaker team and the Tar Heels are starting to feel like they deserve to be in the conversation or best team in the country. But then Rivers put his name in Duke-UNC lore forever by beating the Heels with a buzzer beating three. Maybe “The Shot” will go down as a top five moment in this storied rivalry, but perhaps it should be mentioned that this began a seven game winning streak. The streak included a comeback win over NC State, a redemption victory at Florida State, and iffy wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The month ended with Duke feeling like the top team in the conference and a very possible number one seed in the NCAA tournament. Senior Miles Plumlee was playing his best basketball, having set a single game record for any player during the Coach K era with 23 in the Maryland game, Rivers was now a lock for freshman of the year, and Curry had become a top scorer in the conference. Record after February: 26-4, 13-2 ACC, Ranked 3 in ESPN/4 in AP.

March: Grade D-. Something stopped clicking all of the sudden. Sure those last two wins against the Hokies and Deacons were not great but they were still wins. The first game was a domination for the Tar Heels in a rematch and seemingly took away Duke’s bid for a number one seed. The Blue Devils fell two a two seed in the ACC tournament and drew Virginia Tech once again. They beat the Hokies but looked super flat on offense, winning 60-56. Then they continued their struggles on the offensive end as eventual ACC champ Florida State won by three in the semifinals. So Duke was all of the sudden entering the Big Dance having lost two of three. While all analysts were writing off Duke to make a serious move in the tournament, they expected them to get past Lehigh. Not to be had. The Mountain Hawks seemed to outplay the Devils throughout, and Lehigh’s best player CJ McCollum could not be stopped, just not Krzyzewski’s normal prerogative.

Consistency from Dawkins, continued improvement from Curry, and another year out of Rivers will help Duke return to greatness next season.

Next year: Austin Rivers* (Fr., the guard was the most talented player on the roster and became a first team all-conference player. All-American potential could add more strength before declaring for the NBA), Seth Curry (Jr., no one doubts his outside shot, but proved his ability to score from anywhere by the end of the season. Defense is an issue), Mason Plumlee*(Jr., team’s best post player average 11 points and 9 rebounds and remained solid through tough late season times. Would be a late first round pick if he left), Ryan Kelly (Jr., injured at the end of the season, ability to stretch defense with his outside shooting and his length(6-11). Will be a constant for this team next year), Andre Dawkins (Jr., the ultimate in terms of inconsistency. Beautiful stroke but goes night’s without scoring. Certainly expanding his game and improving defense will be focal point of offseason), Quinn Cook (Fr., showed great promise as both a defender and passer. Takes good care of the ball and reminds Duke fans of a young Chris Duhon), Tyler Thornton (So., Duke’s best perimeter defender may have improved more than anyone else on roster. Constantly put on other team’s best player, needs to work on shot and offensive point guard responsibilities), Josh Hairston (So., another solid improvement, big body that reminds some fans of Lance Thomas) Michael Gbinije (Fr., wing player was oddly used very sparingly, promising athlete with length), Marshall Plumlee (Fr., redshirt, described as having the best post moves on the team but needs to add muscle), Alex Murphy (Fr., another big body who also has the ability to shoot from the outside. Also redshirted.)

*Pending NBA entry

Incoming Class:
Rasheed Sulaimon- 6-3, 175 pound shooting guard. ESPN grade: 97, Scout.com 5 stars- One of the better pure scorers in the 2012 class, Sulaimon has put up huge numbers on the AAU circuit running with the Houston Hoops. Sulaimon has a quick trigger and range that extends past the three-point stripe. There are still areas for improvement like his ball handling and his strength, but he's one of the best guards the class has to offer.
Duke fans: time to get to know Rasheed Sulaimon. -photo via scout.com