I realize that a few more teams punched their tickets to the Big Dance last night and the bracketology that I released last night would have already changed but the only two games that had any bearing on the seeds for ACC teams were the Virginia Commonwealth victory over Drexel in the CAA championship and the St. Mary's win over Gonzaga in the West Coast championship. Both VCU and Drexel entered the Colonial championship with the possibility of making the tournament regardless of a victory. VCU had a bit better of a resume and I believe it will be a stretch for Drexel, 225th ranked strength of schedule, to make it as an at large school. However, if they do there is a good chance that Miami or NC State would be one of those teams pushed out. Gonzaga and Saint Mary's were both in no matter the result, and the overtime win for the Gaels will just give them a higher seed. Now, I had St. Mary's as an eight seed, but see them pushing ahead to about a six. Gonzaga should feel comfortable as a five, with a chance they will move down to a six or seven. The only affect this would have is that both of these teams may have a chance at facing NC State or Miami, who both could be a 12 or 11 seed. Anyways, let's look at the bracket I released and what it means for ACC schools...
1. North Carolina vs. UT-Arlington- North Carolina moved up to a one seed after their beatdown of previous-one-seed Duke on Saturday. It would be the biggest upset in tournament history if the Tar Heels lost to a 16 seed, and in all reality if they played Arlington 1,000 times they would win 998 times. Looking ahead, the half of their region here is not easy. A second round matchup against a surging Nevada team or an underrated New Mexico club would be a battle. Looking beyond that, Indiana would be the most likely candidate in the sweet sixteen, and the Hoosiers have already beaten Kentucky and Ohio State, when they were ranked number 1 and 2 in the nation, respectably. I believe North Carolina would go in as the third best one seed if the tournament started today, so I matched them with the second best two seed, Michigan State, who they already beat in the first game of the season.
2. Duke vs. Valparaiso- Valpo can clinch their ticket with a win in the Horizon league championship tonight. That may be the last win of the season for them. Valpo's resume includes a 152nd ranked strength of schedule, with eight losses to teams ranked below 100 in the RPI. IF they won tonight they would be 9-1 in their last ten games however. Coach K won't be fooling around here and Duke should take this game with ease. The Blue Devils could also still clinch a one seed if they beat North Carolina on the way to an ACC tournament championship. In the second round Duke's road would start to get iffy. Iowa State has already beaten Kansas this year, and is 12-6 in the mighty Big 12. Long Beach State does not have a top 50 win on their resume but comes in hot off of a 15-1 conference record. If they handled either of those teams, Duke would have the chance for a Maui rematch with Michigan in the regional semis and Kansas in the finals. The Blue Devils beat both teams, but both are better than they were in November, and will be looking for redemption.
5. Florida State vs. Northwestern- This would be very intriguing 5-12 matchup. While Florida State is certainly a lock as the third best ACC team to make the field, Northwestern is square on the bubble. For the Seminoles, their 12th ranked strength of schedule is helping, but two losses to sub-150 teams is still hurting them. Clearly, they have improved since a shaky early season that featured losses to Princeton and Harvard, but a late season surprise loss to Boston College took them from a three down to a five seed. Northwestern's RPI of 48 and SOS of 14 are solid, but a 1-10 mark against top-50 teams is only helped by that lone victory over Ohio State. Florida State's next stop would be Murray State most likely, a team that is seeded anywhere from 3 to 9 in brackets but still boasts that 29-1 record. They are, however, without a win over a power six conference foe and it could be a good set up for the Seminoles. A sweet sixteen matchup with deadly Syracuse may be a different story.
9. Virginia vs. Notre Dame- A lot of brackets have Notre Dame higher than an eight, but when I look at their 10 losses, including four to sub-100 teams, I can't put them higher without a strong Big East tournament appearance. Virginia is an interesting team as well, as they are thought of as a lock in almost all predictions, but have been slipping lately, going just 5-5 in their past 10 games. This is a battle of teams going in different positions, but the two had good seasons in good conferences. On the other hand, they are just battling to play Kentucky, who just about no one wants to see.
13. NC State vs. Temple- This is the dream for NC State. To play against a non-power conference leader as a lower seed would be the best matchup they could hope for. If this was the matchup, however, they could not count their chickens before they hatched. Temple already beat Duke, and is coming in having won 9 of 10. Of course NC State is not looking forward to this yet as many think if they lose one of their first two games in the ACC tournament they would be done. However, I'm not NC State and I'm looking ahead. If they pulled an upset over Temple here they would go up against Washington or Memphis, two young teams who took the regular season crown in their conferences. Both would be favored over the Wolfpack, and one wold think that Memphis, who has gone 13-3 in Conference-USA, would not be the preferred opponent. However, Washington is 8-2 in their last ten games and is proving themselves as the leader of the Pac-12.
13. Miami vs. Tennessee in Play-in game- These two teams may be my last two in right now and one may be able to get out of the play-in with VCU's win last night. However, this would be a great play-in matchup. Miami is getting in holding on to wins over Duke and Florida State, with a solid 41st ranked strength of schedule, while Tennessee has won 8 of 10 on the way to a 10-6 mark in the SEC. Both have to win a couple games in their respective tournaments, but both would be coming in hot if that was the case. Looking ahead, the winner would take on Wisconsin, who slows down the game and wins with defense. Miami beat Florida State, who is similar to this style, and one would think they would not mind this game with their inside presence and Wisconsin's lack of the same. This could set up well for Miami, as they could also match up well with Gonzaga or Texas, who they would have to play in their third game.
