Showing posts with label Virginia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Virginia. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Recapping Virginia's Season: Poor, poor Mike Scott
Virginia fell hard in the opening round of the NCAA tournament to Florida on Friday and capped off a harsh ending to a once promising season. The Cavaliers were not only led, but completely dictated by the play of Mike Scott. There could be an argument made that no other player in the conference could have led this team to a number four final seed in the conference and a birth in the Big Dance. But it was not all gravy for Virginia, and here's a month by month recap:
November- Grade: B+. Virginia was preseason number four in the conference and came out hot, scorching lowly South Carolina State and Winthrop. Then, they traveled to St. Thomas for the "Paradise Jam" and things got a little iffy. They had one of their worst losses of the year to TCU, but they rebounded by beating a good Drexel team and finishing off Drake in the fourth-place game of the preseason tourney. Virginia returned home and beat coach Tony Bennett's old school, Green Bay, and then got perhaps their most impressive victory of the season by beating Michigan in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Record after November: 6-1, Unranked.
Mike Scott had the Wahoo faithful flying high after beating Michigan and a successful December. -photo via Virginiasports.com
December- Grade: A. The Cavaliers were riding high after their win over Michigan. They had realized that the Wolverines were more than likely the best non-conference opponent they were going to face and beating them would go a long ways towards their RPI ranking. In December the Wahoos would go 6-0 with a successful cross country trip to Oregon and Seattle. The win over the Ducks in Eugene was the best win of the month but a 20 point whooping of George Mason at home looked good too. Scott was coming into his own during December until the win over then-winless Towson where he was held to just 7 points. Record after December: 12-1, Ranked 23 in ESPN/21 in AP.
January- Grade: B. This is where things began to become inconsistent for Virginia. They opened the new year with an impressive win over a solid LSU team and an impressive home victory over Miami. They looked good in losing by only three to Duke in Durham, but that's when everyone started talking about how the then-number-seventeen Cavaliers needed someone else besides Scott. The all-conference senior had 23 points and 9 rebounds and while Joe Harris had 14 points two starters did not score. "Basically, he was responsible for 60 percent of their offense in the first half," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "When a man does that in this type of game, he's a hell of a player." The rest of January was up and down with mostly the right results. They crushed lowly Georgia Tech on the road but came back and were surprised by Virginia Tech at home. They blew out Boston College before beating an eventual Sweet Sixteen team in NC State on their home floor. They continued by beating a decent Clemson team in a fashion that did not please Bennett. The Cavaliers, who were still ranked number 17 going into the game with the Hokies, began to look the part of a lower seed after the blemish on their home court and took a big hit from the media after that. The win at NC State was needed to quickly bring back their respectability. Record after January: 18-4, 5-3 ACC. Ranked 18 ESPN/16 AP.
Injuries were among the things that left Tony Bennett wondering at the end of the season. -photo via Virginiasports.com
February- Grade: C+. The Cavaliers went 3-4 during February but did not have a bad loss besides one to Clemson, who they had already defeated. It was not a good month in Charlottesville though, and any thoughts of Bennett being named conference (or even national) coach of the year or Scott being named conference player of the year were quickly vanishing. Virginia's other three losses of the month were at Florida State and to North Carolina twice. The matchup with Florida State was one of the most entertaining games of the season, especially from a defensive standpoint but the three point loss was just the beginning of a series of tough luck games for the Wahoos. "We got sped up and rattled in a stretch there where if you want to be successful in a game like this, you can't turn it away," Bennett said after the game, "We've got to clean up some of these turnovers and be more efficient to play against a team like this because baskets aren't easy to come by." The message never seemed to fully get across as the team lost a week later by 18 in Chapel Hill and three days after that by 12 at Clemson. The Cavaliers had a decent week after that by beating rivals Maryland and righting the ship against Virginia Tech but then fell to North Carolina after doing everything right and holding the Tar Heels to a season low 51 points. The Cavaliers were clearly confused after that game as their style of play still just was not winning the games for them. Record after February: 21-7, 8-6 ACC. Ranked 24 in AP.
March- Grade: C. The Cavaliers opened the final month of the season by losing by three to Florida State in the home finale. They left of Florida State's third buzzer beater of the season and Scott, who was clearly hurting after his, guard Sammy Zeglinski, and injured forward Assane Sene's senior night, put it perfectly by saying, "That was our last chance to play one of the top teams in the ACC. That was our last chance to beat one of the best teams. We had it, but we gave it away." Virginia, who now had injuries to both Sene and freshman Malcolm Brogdon, bounced back by beating a charged up Maryland team on their senior night, but had to go to overtime to do it. They finished the season by losing by three to an upstart NC State club in the ACC quarterfinals and getting dominated by Florida in the first round of the Big Dance. Scott scored 15 points in the finale and had his most impressive offensive performance in the Maryland game, scoring a career high 35. But it was not about that for him. Scott teared up after the final defeat because he knew how much farther this team could have gone. Final record: 22-10, 9-7 ACC. Second round, NCAA Tournament.
A healthy Joe Harris (defending) will be the leader of next year's Virginia team. -photo via the Daily Tar Heel
Next year: Joe Harris (So., 6-6 swingman who played anywhere from shooting guard to power forward. Top returning scorer at 11.3 points per game), Jontel Evans (Jr., one of the quickest players in the country, struggle shooting outside. First team all-defensive, former football player, has ability and strength to guard taller opponents. Led team with 3.9 assists and 1.6 steals per game), Malcolm Brogdon (Fr., injured his ankle late in the season and put a major dent in Virginia's offense. Top player off the bench averaged 6.7 ppg and 2.8 rpg), Akil Mitchell (So., listed at 6-8 but played bigger opponents all year. Long arms, sure to work with Bennett to improve shot blocking ability and come back as a defensive minded center), Darion Atkins (Fr., came in with similar style and mindset as Mitchell. At 6-8 and only 220 pounds, sure to add on weight and become a two-headed defensive monster on inside with Mitchell), Paul Jesperson (Fr., showed some promise and had to give up redshirt year after all the injuries. Clearly was not ready for college game but gained good experience and should learn under Harris.)
Incoming class: Evan Nolte- 6-7, 190 pound small forward. ESPN grade: 94, Scout.com 4 stars- "Nolte is one of the best shooters in the class. A big wing with length and a quick release, he is excellent in pick and pop situations. He does need to get better laterally on the defensive end, and isn't a super athlete, but his size and shooting ability makes him a nightmare to defend."
Justin Anderson- 6-5, 210 pounds small forward. ESPN grade: 94, Scout.com 4 stars- "At 6-foot-6, Anderson, a wing out of Virginia, is an elite level athlete that has molded himself into a terrific defender. He moves well laterally, has the strength to take contact and is a presence on the defensive end. He also make his mark rebounding the basketball and corralling put backs. He still needs to develop his offense, as well as his outside shot, but he has a lot of raw talent."
Mike Tobey- 6-11, 210 pound center. ESPN grade: 92, Scout.com 4 stars- "Right now Tobey is more about what he will be rather than what he is, but at 7-feet tall, very few players run the floor like him. He is a good shot blocker and someone who can also hit a mid-range jumper. Now Tobey needs to get stronger and have a better feel for how to score on the block, but the upside is there once he gets into a college weight program."
Teven Jones- 6-0, 180 pound point guard. ESPN grade: unranked, Scout.com 3 stars- no biography available.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
ACC Matchups: The Players
Vermont won its play-in game Wednesday night and now all the matchups for the ACC are set up. Here are how the players for each team look:
Monday, March 12, 2012
Are Any of the ACC Teams Making a Deep Run?
Florida State won the ACC Championship. Can they make a splash in the Big Dance?
The brackets have been released and five ACC teams made the Big Dance. North Carolina was the third overall number 1 seed and has to travel to Saint Louis if it made it to the regional semifinals. Duke was thought to have a chance at a one seed but their loss to Florida State in the ACC semifinals dropped them to a two seed in the South Region. Florida State moved into a third seed after their ACC championship and is set up in the East Region. Virginia dropped down to a ten seed after many thought they could have gone as a high as four back in the beginning of February. They play in the West Region. NC State snuck in as an 11 seed in the Midwest Region after an impressive ACC tournament. Miami is the first team out for the ACC. Here is a look at each team's path to success in the tournament:
1. North Carolina: North Carolina, as expected, gets its first two games in Greensboro. This is about as close to a home court advantage out of any team in the tournament. They play the winner of Vermont and Lamar, two teams that won their conference tournaments to get an at-large bid. While Carolina will be heavily favored over either team, both have under-the-radar personalities. Vermont is led by by do-everything Brian Voelkel and freshman all-namer Four McGlynn. Lamar got publicity when coach Pat Knight (son of the great Bob Knight) called out his seniors two weeks ago. Since, Lamar has not lost and won their tournament with a 21 point romp of McNeese State. If Carolina wins they play either Creighton or Alabama. Both of these teams could have arguable been seeded higher, but for different reasons. Creighton ended their season 28-5 and besides a sloppy three game losing streak looked strong all year. All-American Doug McDermott is the leader of this team, and is very familiar with Carolina's Harrison Barnes, as the two played together in high school. Alabama comes in with a top 20 strength of schedule and finished fifth in the SEC. The knock against them is that they only have three wins over tournament teams, the best being over Wichita State in November. The top seeds in UNC's region are Michigan, Kansas, and Georgetown. While the Jayhawks are probably the toughest matchup of the group, it's hard to name anyone that player-of-the-year candidate Thomas Robinson has matched up with that plays better defense than John Henson or Tyler Zeller. Carolina has shown problems matching up against teams that can knock down threes, which is Michigan's specialty. But a lack of size for the Wolverines may end up a bigger problem. Georgetown has the ability to be really good or really bad. Jason Clark is a superb wing player and Henry Sims has come into his own as a center. Catch the Hoyas on a good day, and they could beat UNC. Catch them on a bad day and Carolina could beat them by 20.
2. Duke: The Blue Devils opening round matchup is against the Patriot League Champion Lehigh Mountain Hawks. Lehigh has now won eight in a row, counting their victory over Regular Season Champion Bucknell on Wednesday. The Mountain Hawks feature in offense surrounding junior guard CJ McCollum, who leads the team with 21.9 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. The team is offensive minded, averaging 76.2 points per game and have an interior presence in Gabe Knutson. It is still hard to see the 26-7 Mountain Hawks defeating mighty Duke, especially with a healthy Ryan Kelly to stretch a suspect defense. If Duke wins they face either Notre Dame or Xavier, two teams that have gone in different directions this year. The Irish were not favored to do much this season after losing all-Big East big man Tim Abromaitis. But a strong February led them to a number three seed in the Big East tournament, where they were ousted by eventual champion Louisville. Xavier was a top ten team that featured all-American candidate Tu Holloway until they slipped off a bit after the notorious brawl with Cincinnati in December. The top seeds in the South Region include Kentucky, Indiana, and Baylor. The Blue Devils would face off against Baylor in the Sweet Sixteen, a team that has size to match anyone in the country but has been beaten by teams with excellent guard play, something Duke possesses. Indiana and Kentucky would be a rematch of Kentucky's only regular season loss in the other Sweet Sixteen matchup. Kentucky is the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing and the number overall seed. Indiana is a young and talented team that has weapons at every position.
3. Florida State- I like Florida State to make a better run at the final four than any other team in the conference. Experience is necessary for a big tournament run, as is size. These are the two attributes you first think of with a deep Seminole team that is rolling at the right time. They start off with a matchup against Atlantic 10 tournament champion St. Bonaventure's in the 3-14 game. The Bonnies stole a bubble team's spot and surprised most by winning the A-10. But Florida State is too hot right now to be slowed down by an average offensive team like the Bonnies. Their second round matchup will be interesting. They get the winner of Cincinnati and Texas. Cincy may be a bit overrated in my opinion, and probably moved way up in the seeding with a strong Big East tournament. But they were slowed by a good defensive team in Louisville in the championship and the Seminoles are even stronger than the Cardinals on that end of the floor. Texas was a bubble team till the very end of the season but possess one of the nation's elite scorers in J'Covan Brown. ACC Tournament MVP Michael Snaer will probably get that individual matchup and there is nothing that tells me that Snaer, who may be the hottest player in the country right now, would not win that battle. The other top seeds in the East Region are Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Syracuse has a tough draw to reach the elite eight, as a potential second round matchup with a fiery Kansas State team looms. Wisconsin can shoot the three and stretch defenses with the best of them, and that is exactly what you need to beat Syracuse's patented 2-3 zone. However, a first and second draw includes Vanderbilt, Harvard, and Montana, perhaps the most competitive draw of the first two round anywhere in the bracket. Ohio State, I believe, has the power and talent to win the whole thing. If they play the way they did against Duke back in December they beat anyone in the country. But Jared Sullinger, Aaron Craft, William Buford and the gang are inconsistent and have appeared vulnerable on both ends of the court before.
10. Virginia- The Cavaliers open with one of the opening rounds most enticing matchups. They drew the Florida Gators, who have been a top 25 team all year long but have lost 4 of 5. The Cavaliers have lost 3 of 4 themselves, including a heartbreaking defeat to NC State in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. The Gators possess talent, and a lot of NBA level caliber at that. Irving Walker is small but makes plays while Kenny Boynton adds athletic ability and a good shot to the backcourt. Brad Beal is thought by many to be a top ten pick in this year's draft and is joined in the frontcourt by big man Patric Young, who is one of the best inside talent's in the country. None of them, though, have had as much of an impact on this season as Mike Scott. The power forward is having an all-American type of year and the Cavs defense is one of a few that could slow Florid'a high powered attack. If Virginia were to win, they would more than likely play second seeded Missouri in the second round. The Tigers feature a four guard lineup that can score and run with anyone. Virginia's backcourt would be challenged in this one but Missouri would struggle to find an answer for Scott. Unfortunately for the Cavs, I don't think they will win going basket for basket with Mizzou.
11. NC State: The Wolfpack were the last team announced on the CBS broadcast of the unveiling of the brackets, so had to hold their breath. They were not, however, the last team in, and proved to the committee they belonged with a strong ACC tournament performance. Their reward: San Diego State, the regular season champions in the strong Mountain West conference. The Aztecs were supposed to be having a rebuilding year but, led by sophomore guard Jamaal Franklin, have another good seed. This is a matchup that the more experience Wolfpack team could win, however, and a good matchup to watch will be CJ Leslie and the Aztecs' Deshawn Stephens. Stephens is defense first but Leslie is playing the best basketball of his career. If State were to win they would get the winner of Georgetown and Belmont. A lot of people are looking for an upset out of Belmont, and while they are a strong mid-major I don't see it happening. Georgetown is too strong at every position and has senior leadership. This might also spell doom if the Wolfpack get the Hoyas in the second round. Henry Sims is playing great basketball in the middle and has done a good job of getting opposing centers into foul trouble, something that has plagued the Wolfpack all year. Like Virginia, I am going to steer clear of anymore what-ifs with the Wolfpack.
The brackets have been released and five ACC teams made the Big Dance. North Carolina was the third overall number 1 seed and has to travel to Saint Louis if it made it to the regional semifinals. Duke was thought to have a chance at a one seed but their loss to Florida State in the ACC semifinals dropped them to a two seed in the South Region. Florida State moved into a third seed after their ACC championship and is set up in the East Region. Virginia dropped down to a ten seed after many thought they could have gone as a high as four back in the beginning of February. They play in the West Region. NC State snuck in as an 11 seed in the Midwest Region after an impressive ACC tournament. Miami is the first team out for the ACC. Here is a look at each team's path to success in the tournament:
1. North Carolina: North Carolina, as expected, gets its first two games in Greensboro. This is about as close to a home court advantage out of any team in the tournament. They play the winner of Vermont and Lamar, two teams that won their conference tournaments to get an at-large bid. While Carolina will be heavily favored over either team, both have under-the-radar personalities. Vermont is led by by do-everything Brian Voelkel and freshman all-namer Four McGlynn. Lamar got publicity when coach Pat Knight (son of the great Bob Knight) called out his seniors two weeks ago. Since, Lamar has not lost and won their tournament with a 21 point romp of McNeese State. If Carolina wins they play either Creighton or Alabama. Both of these teams could have arguable been seeded higher, but for different reasons. Creighton ended their season 28-5 and besides a sloppy three game losing streak looked strong all year. All-American Doug McDermott is the leader of this team, and is very familiar with Carolina's Harrison Barnes, as the two played together in high school. Alabama comes in with a top 20 strength of schedule and finished fifth in the SEC. The knock against them is that they only have three wins over tournament teams, the best being over Wichita State in November. The top seeds in UNC's region are Michigan, Kansas, and Georgetown. While the Jayhawks are probably the toughest matchup of the group, it's hard to name anyone that player-of-the-year candidate Thomas Robinson has matched up with that plays better defense than John Henson or Tyler Zeller. Carolina has shown problems matching up against teams that can knock down threes, which is Michigan's specialty. But a lack of size for the Wolverines may end up a bigger problem. Georgetown has the ability to be really good or really bad. Jason Clark is a superb wing player and Henry Sims has come into his own as a center. Catch the Hoyas on a good day, and they could beat UNC. Catch them on a bad day and Carolina could beat them by 20.
2. Duke: The Blue Devils opening round matchup is against the Patriot League Champion Lehigh Mountain Hawks. Lehigh has now won eight in a row, counting their victory over Regular Season Champion Bucknell on Wednesday. The Mountain Hawks feature in offense surrounding junior guard CJ McCollum, who leads the team with 21.9 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. The team is offensive minded, averaging 76.2 points per game and have an interior presence in Gabe Knutson. It is still hard to see the 26-7 Mountain Hawks defeating mighty Duke, especially with a healthy Ryan Kelly to stretch a suspect defense. If Duke wins they face either Notre Dame or Xavier, two teams that have gone in different directions this year. The Irish were not favored to do much this season after losing all-Big East big man Tim Abromaitis. But a strong February led them to a number three seed in the Big East tournament, where they were ousted by eventual champion Louisville. Xavier was a top ten team that featured all-American candidate Tu Holloway until they slipped off a bit after the notorious brawl with Cincinnati in December. The top seeds in the South Region include Kentucky, Indiana, and Baylor. The Blue Devils would face off against Baylor in the Sweet Sixteen, a team that has size to match anyone in the country but has been beaten by teams with excellent guard play, something Duke possesses. Indiana and Kentucky would be a rematch of Kentucky's only regular season loss in the other Sweet Sixteen matchup. Kentucky is the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing and the number overall seed. Indiana is a young and talented team that has weapons at every position.
3. Florida State- I like Florida State to make a better run at the final four than any other team in the conference. Experience is necessary for a big tournament run, as is size. These are the two attributes you first think of with a deep Seminole team that is rolling at the right time. They start off with a matchup against Atlantic 10 tournament champion St. Bonaventure's in the 3-14 game. The Bonnies stole a bubble team's spot and surprised most by winning the A-10. But Florida State is too hot right now to be slowed down by an average offensive team like the Bonnies. Their second round matchup will be interesting. They get the winner of Cincinnati and Texas. Cincy may be a bit overrated in my opinion, and probably moved way up in the seeding with a strong Big East tournament. But they were slowed by a good defensive team in Louisville in the championship and the Seminoles are even stronger than the Cardinals on that end of the floor. Texas was a bubble team till the very end of the season but possess one of the nation's elite scorers in J'Covan Brown. ACC Tournament MVP Michael Snaer will probably get that individual matchup and there is nothing that tells me that Snaer, who may be the hottest player in the country right now, would not win that battle. The other top seeds in the East Region are Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Syracuse has a tough draw to reach the elite eight, as a potential second round matchup with a fiery Kansas State team looms. Wisconsin can shoot the three and stretch defenses with the best of them, and that is exactly what you need to beat Syracuse's patented 2-3 zone. However, a first and second draw includes Vanderbilt, Harvard, and Montana, perhaps the most competitive draw of the first two round anywhere in the bracket. Ohio State, I believe, has the power and talent to win the whole thing. If they play the way they did against Duke back in December they beat anyone in the country. But Jared Sullinger, Aaron Craft, William Buford and the gang are inconsistent and have appeared vulnerable on both ends of the court before.
10. Virginia- The Cavaliers open with one of the opening rounds most enticing matchups. They drew the Florida Gators, who have been a top 25 team all year long but have lost 4 of 5. The Cavaliers have lost 3 of 4 themselves, including a heartbreaking defeat to NC State in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. The Gators possess talent, and a lot of NBA level caliber at that. Irving Walker is small but makes plays while Kenny Boynton adds athletic ability and a good shot to the backcourt. Brad Beal is thought by many to be a top ten pick in this year's draft and is joined in the frontcourt by big man Patric Young, who is one of the best inside talent's in the country. None of them, though, have had as much of an impact on this season as Mike Scott. The power forward is having an all-American type of year and the Cavs defense is one of a few that could slow Florid'a high powered attack. If Virginia were to win, they would more than likely play second seeded Missouri in the second round. The Tigers feature a four guard lineup that can score and run with anyone. Virginia's backcourt would be challenged in this one but Missouri would struggle to find an answer for Scott. Unfortunately for the Cavs, I don't think they will win going basket for basket with Mizzou.
11. NC State: The Wolfpack were the last team announced on the CBS broadcast of the unveiling of the brackets, so had to hold their breath. They were not, however, the last team in, and proved to the committee they belonged with a strong ACC tournament performance. Their reward: San Diego State, the regular season champions in the strong Mountain West conference. The Aztecs were supposed to be having a rebuilding year but, led by sophomore guard Jamaal Franklin, have another good seed. This is a matchup that the more experience Wolfpack team could win, however, and a good matchup to watch will be CJ Leslie and the Aztecs' Deshawn Stephens. Stephens is defense first but Leslie is playing the best basketball of his career. If State were to win they would get the winner of Georgetown and Belmont. A lot of people are looking for an upset out of Belmont, and while they are a strong mid-major I don't see it happening. Georgetown is too strong at every position and has senior leadership. This might also spell doom if the Wolfpack get the Hoyas in the second round. Henry Sims is playing great basketball in the middle and has done a good job of getting opposing centers into foul trouble, something that has plagued the Wolfpack all year. Like Virginia, I am going to steer clear of anymore what-ifs with the Wolfpack.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Bracketology: Explained ACC Style March 5th
North Carolina's Big Four of (from left) Kendall Marshall, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Harrison Barnes are focused on a long tournament run.
I realize that a few more teams punched their tickets to the Big Dance last night and the bracketology that I released last night would have already changed but the only two games that had any bearing on the seeds for ACC teams were the Virginia Commonwealth victory over Drexel in the CAA championship and the St. Mary's win over Gonzaga in the West Coast championship. Both VCU and Drexel entered the Colonial championship with the possibility of making the tournament regardless of a victory. VCU had a bit better of a resume and I believe it will be a stretch for Drexel, 225th ranked strength of schedule, to make it as an at large school. However, if they do there is a good chance that Miami or NC State would be one of those teams pushed out. Gonzaga and Saint Mary's were both in no matter the result, and the overtime win for the Gaels will just give them a higher seed. Now, I had St. Mary's as an eight seed, but see them pushing ahead to about a six. Gonzaga should feel comfortable as a five, with a chance they will move down to a six or seven. The only affect this would have is that both of these teams may have a chance at facing NC State or Miami, who both could be a 12 or 11 seed. Anyways, let's look at the bracket I released and what it means for ACC schools...
1. North Carolina vs. UT-Arlington- North Carolina moved up to a one seed after their beatdown of previous-one-seed Duke on Saturday. It would be the biggest upset in tournament history if the Tar Heels lost to a 16 seed, and in all reality if they played Arlington 1,000 times they would win 998 times. Looking ahead, the half of their region here is not easy. A second round matchup against a surging Nevada team or an underrated New Mexico club would be a battle. Looking beyond that, Indiana would be the most likely candidate in the sweet sixteen, and the Hoosiers have already beaten Kentucky and Ohio State, when they were ranked number 1 and 2 in the nation, respectably. I believe North Carolina would go in as the third best one seed if the tournament started today, so I matched them with the second best two seed, Michigan State, who they already beat in the first game of the season.
2. Duke vs. Valparaiso- Valpo can clinch their ticket with a win in the Horizon league championship tonight. That may be the last win of the season for them. Valpo's resume includes a 152nd ranked strength of schedule, with eight losses to teams ranked below 100 in the RPI. IF they won tonight they would be 9-1 in their last ten games however. Coach K won't be fooling around here and Duke should take this game with ease. The Blue Devils could also still clinch a one seed if they beat North Carolina on the way to an ACC tournament championship. In the second round Duke's road would start to get iffy. Iowa State has already beaten Kansas this year, and is 12-6 in the mighty Big 12. Long Beach State does not have a top 50 win on their resume but comes in hot off of a 15-1 conference record. If they handled either of those teams, Duke would have the chance for a Maui rematch with Michigan in the regional semis and Kansas in the finals. The Blue Devils beat both teams, but both are better than they were in November, and will be looking for redemption.
5. Florida State vs. Northwestern- This would be very intriguing 5-12 matchup. While Florida State is certainly a lock as the third best ACC team to make the field, Northwestern is square on the bubble. For the Seminoles, their 12th ranked strength of schedule is helping, but two losses to sub-150 teams is still hurting them. Clearly, they have improved since a shaky early season that featured losses to Princeton and Harvard, but a late season surprise loss to Boston College took them from a three down to a five seed. Northwestern's RPI of 48 and SOS of 14 are solid, but a 1-10 mark against top-50 teams is only helped by that lone victory over Ohio State. Florida State's next stop would be Murray State most likely, a team that is seeded anywhere from 3 to 9 in brackets but still boasts that 29-1 record. They are, however, without a win over a power six conference foe and it could be a good set up for the Seminoles. A sweet sixteen matchup with deadly Syracuse may be a different story.
9. Virginia vs. Notre Dame- A lot of brackets have Notre Dame higher than an eight, but when I look at their 10 losses, including four to sub-100 teams, I can't put them higher without a strong Big East tournament appearance. Virginia is an interesting team as well, as they are thought of as a lock in almost all predictions, but have been slipping lately, going just 5-5 in their past 10 games. This is a battle of teams going in different positions, but the two had good seasons in good conferences. On the other hand, they are just battling to play Kentucky, who just about no one wants to see.
13. NC State vs. Temple- This is the dream for NC State. To play against a non-power conference leader as a lower seed would be the best matchup they could hope for. If this was the matchup, however, they could not count their chickens before they hatched. Temple already beat Duke, and is coming in having won 9 of 10. Of course NC State is not looking forward to this yet as many think if they lose one of their first two games in the ACC tournament they would be done. However, I'm not NC State and I'm looking ahead. If they pulled an upset over Temple here they would go up against Washington or Memphis, two young teams who took the regular season crown in their conferences. Both would be favored over the Wolfpack, and one wold think that Memphis, who has gone 13-3 in Conference-USA, would not be the preferred opponent. However, Washington is 8-2 in their last ten games and is proving themselves as the leader of the Pac-12.
13. Miami vs. Tennessee in Play-in game- These two teams may be my last two in right now and one may be able to get out of the play-in with VCU's win last night. However, this would be a great play-in matchup. Miami is getting in holding on to wins over Duke and Florida State, with a solid 41st ranked strength of schedule, while Tennessee has won 8 of 10 on the way to a 10-6 mark in the SEC. Both have to win a couple games in their respective tournaments, but both would be coming in hot if that was the case. Looking ahead, the winner would take on Wisconsin, who slows down the game and wins with defense. Miami beat Florida State, who is similar to this style, and one would think they would not mind this game with their inside presence and Wisconsin's lack of the same. This could set up well for Miami, as they could also match up well with Gonzaga or Texas, who they would have to play in their third game.
I realize that a few more teams punched their tickets to the Big Dance last night and the bracketology that I released last night would have already changed but the only two games that had any bearing on the seeds for ACC teams were the Virginia Commonwealth victory over Drexel in the CAA championship and the St. Mary's win over Gonzaga in the West Coast championship. Both VCU and Drexel entered the Colonial championship with the possibility of making the tournament regardless of a victory. VCU had a bit better of a resume and I believe it will be a stretch for Drexel, 225th ranked strength of schedule, to make it as an at large school. However, if they do there is a good chance that Miami or NC State would be one of those teams pushed out. Gonzaga and Saint Mary's were both in no matter the result, and the overtime win for the Gaels will just give them a higher seed. Now, I had St. Mary's as an eight seed, but see them pushing ahead to about a six. Gonzaga should feel comfortable as a five, with a chance they will move down to a six or seven. The only affect this would have is that both of these teams may have a chance at facing NC State or Miami, who both could be a 12 or 11 seed. Anyways, let's look at the bracket I released and what it means for ACC schools...
1. North Carolina vs. UT-Arlington- North Carolina moved up to a one seed after their beatdown of previous-one-seed Duke on Saturday. It would be the biggest upset in tournament history if the Tar Heels lost to a 16 seed, and in all reality if they played Arlington 1,000 times they would win 998 times. Looking ahead, the half of their region here is not easy. A second round matchup against a surging Nevada team or an underrated New Mexico club would be a battle. Looking beyond that, Indiana would be the most likely candidate in the sweet sixteen, and the Hoosiers have already beaten Kentucky and Ohio State, when they were ranked number 1 and 2 in the nation, respectably. I believe North Carolina would go in as the third best one seed if the tournament started today, so I matched them with the second best two seed, Michigan State, who they already beat in the first game of the season.
2. Duke vs. Valparaiso- Valpo can clinch their ticket with a win in the Horizon league championship tonight. That may be the last win of the season for them. Valpo's resume includes a 152nd ranked strength of schedule, with eight losses to teams ranked below 100 in the RPI. IF they won tonight they would be 9-1 in their last ten games however. Coach K won't be fooling around here and Duke should take this game with ease. The Blue Devils could also still clinch a one seed if they beat North Carolina on the way to an ACC tournament championship. In the second round Duke's road would start to get iffy. Iowa State has already beaten Kansas this year, and is 12-6 in the mighty Big 12. Long Beach State does not have a top 50 win on their resume but comes in hot off of a 15-1 conference record. If they handled either of those teams, Duke would have the chance for a Maui rematch with Michigan in the regional semis and Kansas in the finals. The Blue Devils beat both teams, but both are better than they were in November, and will be looking for redemption.
5. Florida State vs. Northwestern- This would be very intriguing 5-12 matchup. While Florida State is certainly a lock as the third best ACC team to make the field, Northwestern is square on the bubble. For the Seminoles, their 12th ranked strength of schedule is helping, but two losses to sub-150 teams is still hurting them. Clearly, they have improved since a shaky early season that featured losses to Princeton and Harvard, but a late season surprise loss to Boston College took them from a three down to a five seed. Northwestern's RPI of 48 and SOS of 14 are solid, but a 1-10 mark against top-50 teams is only helped by that lone victory over Ohio State. Florida State's next stop would be Murray State most likely, a team that is seeded anywhere from 3 to 9 in brackets but still boasts that 29-1 record. They are, however, without a win over a power six conference foe and it could be a good set up for the Seminoles. A sweet sixteen matchup with deadly Syracuse may be a different story.
9. Virginia vs. Notre Dame- A lot of brackets have Notre Dame higher than an eight, but when I look at their 10 losses, including four to sub-100 teams, I can't put them higher without a strong Big East tournament appearance. Virginia is an interesting team as well, as they are thought of as a lock in almost all predictions, but have been slipping lately, going just 5-5 in their past 10 games. This is a battle of teams going in different positions, but the two had good seasons in good conferences. On the other hand, they are just battling to play Kentucky, who just about no one wants to see.
13. NC State vs. Temple- This is the dream for NC State. To play against a non-power conference leader as a lower seed would be the best matchup they could hope for. If this was the matchup, however, they could not count their chickens before they hatched. Temple already beat Duke, and is coming in having won 9 of 10. Of course NC State is not looking forward to this yet as many think if they lose one of their first two games in the ACC tournament they would be done. However, I'm not NC State and I'm looking ahead. If they pulled an upset over Temple here they would go up against Washington or Memphis, two young teams who took the regular season crown in their conferences. Both would be favored over the Wolfpack, and one wold think that Memphis, who has gone 13-3 in Conference-USA, would not be the preferred opponent. However, Washington is 8-2 in their last ten games and is proving themselves as the leader of the Pac-12.
13. Miami vs. Tennessee in Play-in game- These two teams may be my last two in right now and one may be able to get out of the play-in with VCU's win last night. However, this would be a great play-in matchup. Miami is getting in holding on to wins over Duke and Florida State, with a solid 41st ranked strength of schedule, while Tennessee has won 8 of 10 on the way to a 10-6 mark in the SEC. Both have to win a couple games in their respective tournaments, but both would be coming in hot if that was the case. Looking ahead, the winner would take on Wisconsin, who slows down the game and wins with defense. Miami beat Florida State, who is similar to this style, and one would think they would not mind this game with their inside presence and Wisconsin's lack of the same. This could set up well for Miami, as they could also match up well with Gonzaga or Texas, who they would have to play in their third game.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Crazy Weekend in the ACC May Have Gone Unnoticed
The weekend was another crazy one throughout the country, as Kansas and Missouri completed their storied rivalry with an overtime game in Lawrence. Wisconsin upset Ohio State on the road. Florida, Michigan, Notre Dame, and New Mexico all joined Ohio State in being upset. This all may have left the happenings of the ACC in the back of some analyst’s minds. It should not have, the last couple of days in the conference left storylines that are going to dominate the rest of the season. Here is what happened if you missed it…
Reggie Johnson can only watch from the bench during the Hurricanes win versus Florida State. -photo via Associated Press.
Reggie Johnson of Miami was declared ineligible… According to ESPN.com news services Johnson “has been declared ineligible by the Hurricanes after an investigation revealed that members of his family took impermissible travel benefits that…came from a member of former coach Frank Haith’s staff…The Hurricanes said Johnson was not aware of the benefits and personally received nothing.” Miami is currently seeking his immediate reinstatement and first-year coach Jim Larranaga is sticking to the fact that Johnson did not do anything wrong. This is tough for the Hurricanes as Johnson averages 10.6 points and 6.9 rebounds a game. Johnson has been up and down but recorded an 11-point and 9 rebound game against North Carolina and is a key part for the Canes bubble chances. Johnson was replaced in the starting lineup by Raphael Akperjiori (1.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg).
Without Johnson, Miami routed Florida State… Not only does this boost Miami’s chances of being on the right side of the bubble as they add another big win to go along with their victory at Duke, but it also ended a poor week for the Seminoles. Florida State lost this one 78-62 and was outscored by 24 points this week. Surely, it was tough to travel to Coral Gables after falling at home to Duke on Thursday but a three-day layoff should have given the Seminoles more rest to challenge the Hurricanes. Bernard James, Xavier Gibson, Jon Kreft, and Okaro White managed only 16 points between the four of them while not taking advantage of a 280-pound opening on the inside with the absence of Johnson. Durand Scott led the Hurricanes with a 17 point, 7 rebound, 2 assist, one steal performance.
Tyler Zeller (44) completes a key last minute dunk at Virginia. -photo via Star News Online.
North Carolina grinds out win over Virginia… The Cavaliers could not have asked for a better pace. The Tar Heels average a third best nationally 81.9 points per game while the Cavalier average a second best nationally 51 points per game. The final score of this one was 54-51. Carolina shot a poor 33.3% while the Cavaliers scored four more field goals while shooting 35%. Virginia committed only four turnovers to North Carolina’s 11. The game plan was clear for the Wahoos, but they struggled with foul trouble. Player of the year candidate was thrown out of rhythm when four fouls forced him into only 22 minutes. The team committed six more fouls than UNC and the Tar Heels shot 18-23 from the line while the Cavaliers shot just 3-6. Henson should win an Oscar for this one, as his acting helped Scott pick up his fourth foul with 12 minutes left. Tyler Zeller’s 20 point performance, including a clutch last minute dunk, may have gave him the edge over Scott for the player of the year race, but I am still not convince that it is a lock.
NC State’s bubble may have just burst… Barring a run to an ACC tournament championship, the Wolfpack may be done. A 72-69 loss to Clemson in overtime means State has lost four in a row in the most important stretch of their season. Clemson tied NC State at 7-7 in the conference for sixth place. For the first time in this stretch, foul trouble was not the main point of interest for the Wolfpack, as CJ Leslie, who was the most consistent player down the stretch, was the only player who picked up four fouls. Clemson big man Devin Booker, who finished with a very respectable 9 points and 10 rebounds, fouled out for the Tigers. Down the stretch, the story may have to belong to Clemson guard Tanner Smith, however. Smith finished with 15 points, four rebounds, and five assists, while scoring five points in the final minute and overtime. This also included the two free throws with six seconds left that forced overtime.
Austin Rivers (0) goes up for a tough shot against Virginia Tech in the first half. -photo via Gerry Broome/AP
Duke survived to keep hope of a number one seed… Virginia Tech came into Durham with a mission to take advantage of Duke’s tired legs and come out with an upset. Duke looked lackadaisical, not giving their normal effort for loose balls while coming off a tough battle in Tallahassee two days earlier. But Coach K applauded his team’s effort, saying that this is just like a tournament game, where you have to face two solid teams in three days. Krzyzewski gave all the credit in the world, noting that the Hokies have been part of 11 games in the conference that have been decided by four points or less, now with a 4-7 record in those games. Cadarian Raines had a bit of a coming out party for Tech, with a 16 point, 5 rebound game, and their best player, Erick Green, scored all 16 of his points in the second half, but missed the biggest shot of them all with a missed jumper from the elbow with three seconds left. Seth Curry and Austin Rivers both made three free throws in overtime, and scored 19 and 23 points, respectably. Miles Plumlee continued a charge with 15 rebounds.
Other results…
Wake 85, Boston College 56- CJ Harris and Travis McKie combine for 44 points in battle for tenth place in conference.
Maryland 61, Georgia Tech 63- Disappointing loss in Atlanta for the Terps, who could have been in sixth place right now. Leading scorer Terrell Stoglin shot just 5-17 from the field as Maryland drops to eighth.
Reggie Johnson can only watch from the bench during the Hurricanes win versus Florida State. -photo via Associated Press.
Reggie Johnson of Miami was declared ineligible… According to ESPN.com news services Johnson “has been declared ineligible by the Hurricanes after an investigation revealed that members of his family took impermissible travel benefits that…came from a member of former coach Frank Haith’s staff…The Hurricanes said Johnson was not aware of the benefits and personally received nothing.” Miami is currently seeking his immediate reinstatement and first-year coach Jim Larranaga is sticking to the fact that Johnson did not do anything wrong. This is tough for the Hurricanes as Johnson averages 10.6 points and 6.9 rebounds a game. Johnson has been up and down but recorded an 11-point and 9 rebound game against North Carolina and is a key part for the Canes bubble chances. Johnson was replaced in the starting lineup by Raphael Akperjiori (1.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg).
Without Johnson, Miami routed Florida State… Not only does this boost Miami’s chances of being on the right side of the bubble as they add another big win to go along with their victory at Duke, but it also ended a poor week for the Seminoles. Florida State lost this one 78-62 and was outscored by 24 points this week. Surely, it was tough to travel to Coral Gables after falling at home to Duke on Thursday but a three-day layoff should have given the Seminoles more rest to challenge the Hurricanes. Bernard James, Xavier Gibson, Jon Kreft, and Okaro White managed only 16 points between the four of them while not taking advantage of a 280-pound opening on the inside with the absence of Johnson. Durand Scott led the Hurricanes with a 17 point, 7 rebound, 2 assist, one steal performance.
Tyler Zeller (44) completes a key last minute dunk at Virginia. -photo via Star News Online.
North Carolina grinds out win over Virginia… The Cavaliers could not have asked for a better pace. The Tar Heels average a third best nationally 81.9 points per game while the Cavalier average a second best nationally 51 points per game. The final score of this one was 54-51. Carolina shot a poor 33.3% while the Cavaliers scored four more field goals while shooting 35%. Virginia committed only four turnovers to North Carolina’s 11. The game plan was clear for the Wahoos, but they struggled with foul trouble. Player of the year candidate was thrown out of rhythm when four fouls forced him into only 22 minutes. The team committed six more fouls than UNC and the Tar Heels shot 18-23 from the line while the Cavaliers shot just 3-6. Henson should win an Oscar for this one, as his acting helped Scott pick up his fourth foul with 12 minutes left. Tyler Zeller’s 20 point performance, including a clutch last minute dunk, may have gave him the edge over Scott for the player of the year race, but I am still not convince that it is a lock.
NC State’s bubble may have just burst… Barring a run to an ACC tournament championship, the Wolfpack may be done. A 72-69 loss to Clemson in overtime means State has lost four in a row in the most important stretch of their season. Clemson tied NC State at 7-7 in the conference for sixth place. For the first time in this stretch, foul trouble was not the main point of interest for the Wolfpack, as CJ Leslie, who was the most consistent player down the stretch, was the only player who picked up four fouls. Clemson big man Devin Booker, who finished with a very respectable 9 points and 10 rebounds, fouled out for the Tigers. Down the stretch, the story may have to belong to Clemson guard Tanner Smith, however. Smith finished with 15 points, four rebounds, and five assists, while scoring five points in the final minute and overtime. This also included the two free throws with six seconds left that forced overtime.
Austin Rivers (0) goes up for a tough shot against Virginia Tech in the first half. -photo via Gerry Broome/AP
Duke survived to keep hope of a number one seed… Virginia Tech came into Durham with a mission to take advantage of Duke’s tired legs and come out with an upset. Duke looked lackadaisical, not giving their normal effort for loose balls while coming off a tough battle in Tallahassee two days earlier. But Coach K applauded his team’s effort, saying that this is just like a tournament game, where you have to face two solid teams in three days. Krzyzewski gave all the credit in the world, noting that the Hokies have been part of 11 games in the conference that have been decided by four points or less, now with a 4-7 record in those games. Cadarian Raines had a bit of a coming out party for Tech, with a 16 point, 5 rebound game, and their best player, Erick Green, scored all 16 of his points in the second half, but missed the biggest shot of them all with a missed jumper from the elbow with three seconds left. Seth Curry and Austin Rivers both made three free throws in overtime, and scored 19 and 23 points, respectably. Miles Plumlee continued a charge with 15 rebounds.
Other results…
Wake 85, Boston College 56- CJ Harris and Travis McKie combine for 44 points in battle for tenth place in conference.
Maryland 61, Georgia Tech 63- Disappointing loss in Atlanta for the Terps, who could have been in sixth place right now. Leading scorer Terrell Stoglin shot just 5-17 from the field as Maryland drops to eighth.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Bracketology: Explained ACC Style
CJ Leslie and NC State have to be nervous about their current position. -photo via The Sports Fan Journal
The ACC teams, in my opinion of bracketology, turned out like this:
Duke: 1 seed, Midwest Region (St. Louis). RPI:3 SOS: 3. Best Win: Michigan St.-N (4th in RPi). 6-4 vs. Top-50. Worst Loss: Miami (49). Last 10: 8-2. Right now, Duke has one of the top 4 resumes in the country. A win tonight against Florida State would also erase the memory of one of their losses. Duke's road is going to travel through Greensboro in the first and second round no matter what, giving a nice home court feeling. I have them going to St. Louis for their regional games just because Kentucky is arguable the overall number one seed and certainly one of the top two. They want to go to Atlanta just as much as the Blue Devils and deserve their choice a little more as of right now. If the tournament set up as it is here, I see Duke cruising over UNC-Asheville, beating a surging Kansas State team in a close game, taking down an overrated Louisville team, and then a neutral court rematch with Ohio State, who pasted the Blue Devils in Columbus earlier this year.
North Carolina: 2 seed, West Region (Phoenix). RPI: 5 SOS: 12. Best Win: Michigan St.-N (4th in RPI). 5-4 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Florida St (19). L10: 9-1. North Carolina is certainly the two seed that is challenging most for a one seed right now, with Missouri right behind them. They had to be put in the West Region in order to play the lowest ranked two seed (Michigan State). This could easily change to the East Region in order to be closer to home, but they would then have to play Syracuse in Boston. A rematch against Kentucky is something the committee tries to avoid and there is no way they are going to be put in the same region as Duke. The Tar Heels will also start in Greensboro no matter what and if the tournament set up like so I would see them winning easily over Bucknell, getting and beating Iowa State in the second round, defeating a big Baylor team in the Sweet Sixteen and setting up a rematch with the Spartans for the regional championship.
Florida State: 5 seed, East Region (Boston) RPI: 19 SOS: 13. Best Win: @Duke (3rd in RPI). 4-4 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Boston College (222). L10: 9-1. That Boston College loss does not look good on Florida State's resume. Neither does a loss to Clemson (150) or Princeton (98). But the Seminoles do still boast a tough schedule and solid RPI. Wins over Duke and Virginia in their remaining games and then a good showing in the ACC tournament could boost them into a top three seed. Because they are in a 4-5 region the four seed would not get a very good pick at where it wanted to go, meaning these matchups may end up being in Portland or Albuquerque. If it shaped up like this, I like Florida State beating a pesky St. Joe's in the first round, a close battle with Indiana or Northern Iowa (could see NI pulling that upset), and then a showdown in Boston with Syracuse.
Virginia: 7 seed, South Region (Atlanta) RPI: 34 SOS: 101. Best Win: Michigan (10th in RPI). 2-3 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Clemson (150). L10: 6-4. Virginia needs to beat North Carolina on Saturday if they want better than the 7 seed I gave them. They are clinging on to a victory of Michigan early in the year and love seeing the Wolverines succeeding but they need some more help. In this scenario they would have to go to Omaha and play a feisty and hot New Mexico team. If they snuck by New Mexico they would have to go up against Missouri, which I think would be a game that Mike Scott could control and Virginia would match up well with their guards. However, this is far from comfortable territory for Virginia and a win over UNC, followed by Florida State, and then a strong showing in the tournament should boost them up.
Miami: 12 seed, West Region (Phoenix) RPI: 49 SOS: 32. Best Win: @Duke (3rd in RPI). 1-6 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Maryland (89). L10: 6-4. Miami is limping hard and needs a win over Florida State on Sunday to patch up their record versus the top teams in the country. They are still riding the Duke win hard and manage to sneak in as one of the last four in because of a strong strength of schedule. Southern Miss would be a blessing for Miami to get in the first round but Florida would not stop short of putting a smack down on the Hurricanes.
NC State: 13 seed, West Region (Phoenix) RPI: 64 SOS: 33. Best Win: @Miami (49th in RPI). 1-8 Top-50. Worst Loss: Georgia Tech (186). L10: 5-5. I'm not sure that NC State actually makes it at this point, but I wanted to put them in mostly to talk about them. State needs to finish the season without anymore losses. 49th ranked Miami is not a "big time win" but beating them twice would help their chances. State blew its chances in the last three games versus Duke, UNC, and Florida State. Unless they get to the finals of the ACC tournament I don't see much of a chance for them. But just for fun let's see what they would do if the tournament shaped up like this: they would lose in the play-in game to a reeling Illinois team. Maybe it would be better to try to make a run in the NIT?
The ACC teams, in my opinion of bracketology, turned out like this:
Duke: 1 seed, Midwest Region (St. Louis). RPI:3 SOS: 3. Best Win: Michigan St.-N (4th in RPi). 6-4 vs. Top-50. Worst Loss: Miami (49). Last 10: 8-2. Right now, Duke has one of the top 4 resumes in the country. A win tonight against Florida State would also erase the memory of one of their losses. Duke's road is going to travel through Greensboro in the first and second round no matter what, giving a nice home court feeling. I have them going to St. Louis for their regional games just because Kentucky is arguable the overall number one seed and certainly one of the top two. They want to go to Atlanta just as much as the Blue Devils and deserve their choice a little more as of right now. If the tournament set up as it is here, I see Duke cruising over UNC-Asheville, beating a surging Kansas State team in a close game, taking down an overrated Louisville team, and then a neutral court rematch with Ohio State, who pasted the Blue Devils in Columbus earlier this year.
North Carolina: 2 seed, West Region (Phoenix). RPI: 5 SOS: 12. Best Win: Michigan St.-N (4th in RPI). 5-4 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Florida St (19). L10: 9-1. North Carolina is certainly the two seed that is challenging most for a one seed right now, with Missouri right behind them. They had to be put in the West Region in order to play the lowest ranked two seed (Michigan State). This could easily change to the East Region in order to be closer to home, but they would then have to play Syracuse in Boston. A rematch against Kentucky is something the committee tries to avoid and there is no way they are going to be put in the same region as Duke. The Tar Heels will also start in Greensboro no matter what and if the tournament set up like so I would see them winning easily over Bucknell, getting and beating Iowa State in the second round, defeating a big Baylor team in the Sweet Sixteen and setting up a rematch with the Spartans for the regional championship.
Florida State: 5 seed, East Region (Boston) RPI: 19 SOS: 13. Best Win: @Duke (3rd in RPI). 4-4 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Boston College (222). L10: 9-1. That Boston College loss does not look good on Florida State's resume. Neither does a loss to Clemson (150) or Princeton (98). But the Seminoles do still boast a tough schedule and solid RPI. Wins over Duke and Virginia in their remaining games and then a good showing in the ACC tournament could boost them into a top three seed. Because they are in a 4-5 region the four seed would not get a very good pick at where it wanted to go, meaning these matchups may end up being in Portland or Albuquerque. If it shaped up like this, I like Florida State beating a pesky St. Joe's in the first round, a close battle with Indiana or Northern Iowa (could see NI pulling that upset), and then a showdown in Boston with Syracuse.
Virginia: 7 seed, South Region (Atlanta) RPI: 34 SOS: 101. Best Win: Michigan (10th in RPI). 2-3 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Clemson (150). L10: 6-4. Virginia needs to beat North Carolina on Saturday if they want better than the 7 seed I gave them. They are clinging on to a victory of Michigan early in the year and love seeing the Wolverines succeeding but they need some more help. In this scenario they would have to go to Omaha and play a feisty and hot New Mexico team. If they snuck by New Mexico they would have to go up against Missouri, which I think would be a game that Mike Scott could control and Virginia would match up well with their guards. However, this is far from comfortable territory for Virginia and a win over UNC, followed by Florida State, and then a strong showing in the tournament should boost them up.
Miami: 12 seed, West Region (Phoenix) RPI: 49 SOS: 32. Best Win: @Duke (3rd in RPI). 1-6 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Maryland (89). L10: 6-4. Miami is limping hard and needs a win over Florida State on Sunday to patch up their record versus the top teams in the country. They are still riding the Duke win hard and manage to sneak in as one of the last four in because of a strong strength of schedule. Southern Miss would be a blessing for Miami to get in the first round but Florida would not stop short of putting a smack down on the Hurricanes.
NC State: 13 seed, West Region (Phoenix) RPI: 64 SOS: 33. Best Win: @Miami (49th in RPI). 1-8 Top-50. Worst Loss: Georgia Tech (186). L10: 5-5. I'm not sure that NC State actually makes it at this point, but I wanted to put them in mostly to talk about them. State needs to finish the season without anymore losses. 49th ranked Miami is not a "big time win" but beating them twice would help their chances. State blew its chances in the last three games versus Duke, UNC, and Florida State. Unless they get to the finals of the ACC tournament I don't see much of a chance for them. But just for fun let's see what they would do if the tournament shaped up like this: they would lose in the play-in game to a reeling Illinois team. Maybe it would be better to try to make a run in the NIT?
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
What Last Night Proved- February 22
Clemson 56, Georgia Tech 37-
Milton Jennings drives on Kammeon Holsey (24). photo via John Bazemore/AP
This may be the late-in-the-season game that Clemson needed to show off next year's cornerstones. Junior Milton Jennings scored 15 points and grabbed 5 rebounds in 23 minutes while freshman K.J. McDaniels scored 10 points in 13 minutes as the Tigers overcame a down night for leading scorer Andre Young. While Young is graduating this year, Jennings, McDaniels, and Devin Booker seem to be the face of this talented team going into next season. The Tigers have now won 3 of 4 including a win over Virginia. If they can win two of their final three they could quietly grab the number five seed in the ACC tournament.
For Georgia Tech this marks now losing 9 of 10 and 14 of 16. Georgia Tech is bad and worse with Glen Rice, Jr. suspended. The good that came out of it is the continuing improvement of sophomore Kammeon Holsey, who led the team with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Holsey has now put up double digit point totals in 4 of Tech's last 5 games.
North Carolina 86, NC State 74-
Kendall Marshall goes for a layup over Lorenzo Brown (2). photo via Gerry Broome/AP
Kendall Marshall can score. The point guard and nationally-leading assist getter led the Tar Heels with a career high 22 points. He also dished out 13 assists while committing no turnovers. The sophomore was 7-8 from the field including 4-5 from deep. Teams have been daring Marshall to shoot and if he can put out even half of his effort from three point land the rest of the country is in trouble. The Tar Heels asserted dominance over the Wolfpack in the last season the two teams will meet twice, beating their Raleigh rivals by a combined 31 points.
For an impressive performance in a losing effort, one looks to NC State's CJ Leslie. The forward led the team with 24 points and 12 rebounds while not committing any turnovers. This team has to become Leslie and point guard Lorenzo Brown's. Brown's 18 point, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists were good enough to put him in the same category as Marshall when looking at ACC point guards. Mark Gottfried has done a good job in his first season at Raleigh but just lost three straight to the best the conference has to offer and NC State's bubble is quickly popping.
Maryland 75, Miami 70-
James Padgett (35) is surrounded by teammates after completing a late three point play. photo via Baltimore Sun/Kenneth K. Lam
Maryland may have the harshest crowd in the conference. The team rode the momentum of the screaming fans to a clutch victory. James Padgett was the hero, grabbing an offensive rebound and completing a three point play in the closing minute to help the Terps secure their sixth ACC victory. Sean Mosley may have been the most impressive Terp, scoring 15 points while dishing out 6 assists and grabbing 5 boards. The conference's leading scorer Terrell Stoglin scored 20 points on 6 of 17 shooting after Mark Turgeon claimed the star sophomore "gets his" while not necessarily looking for the team win.
Miami may have just fell off the NCAA train. The Hurricanes were riding their victory at Duke hard in order to stay on the bubble and now have dropped to 7-6 in ACC play. They clearly missed Durand Scott after he fouled out in the final minute as they wasted an opportunity to tie with a Shane Larkin turnover. Kenny Kadji scored 16 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in the losing effort.
Virginia 61, Virginia Tech 59-
Virginia's Mike Scott goes up for a dunk against Virginia Tech. photo via Don Peterson/AP
Virginia righted the ship by not allowing a Virginia Tech sweep of the season series. Virginia did it with their defense, holding the Hokies scoreless for an eight minute stretch to overcome a three point halftime deficit. Both teams were cold in the last four minutes and the Cavaliers defense outdid the Hokies'. Mike Scott led all scorers with 20 points while grabbing 9 boards. Sammy Zeglinski helped out with 13 but Virginia still won this almost entirely with defense.
Erick Green continues to impress, scoring 17 of his 19 points in the second half. Green has endured a rough season, becoming a complete player while his team is far from a finished project. The junior has to use this momentum into next season though, as he will be joined by sensational freshman Dorian Finney-Smith and sophomore Jarell Eddie, who showed his athleticism with a block on possible ACC player of the year Mike Scott.
Milton Jennings drives on Kammeon Holsey (24). photo via John Bazemore/AP
This may be the late-in-the-season game that Clemson needed to show off next year's cornerstones. Junior Milton Jennings scored 15 points and grabbed 5 rebounds in 23 minutes while freshman K.J. McDaniels scored 10 points in 13 minutes as the Tigers overcame a down night for leading scorer Andre Young. While Young is graduating this year, Jennings, McDaniels, and Devin Booker seem to be the face of this talented team going into next season. The Tigers have now won 3 of 4 including a win over Virginia. If they can win two of their final three they could quietly grab the number five seed in the ACC tournament.
For Georgia Tech this marks now losing 9 of 10 and 14 of 16. Georgia Tech is bad and worse with Glen Rice, Jr. suspended. The good that came out of it is the continuing improvement of sophomore Kammeon Holsey, who led the team with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Holsey has now put up double digit point totals in 4 of Tech's last 5 games.
North Carolina 86, NC State 74-
Kendall Marshall goes for a layup over Lorenzo Brown (2). photo via Gerry Broome/AP
Kendall Marshall can score. The point guard and nationally-leading assist getter led the Tar Heels with a career high 22 points. He also dished out 13 assists while committing no turnovers. The sophomore was 7-8 from the field including 4-5 from deep. Teams have been daring Marshall to shoot and if he can put out even half of his effort from three point land the rest of the country is in trouble. The Tar Heels asserted dominance over the Wolfpack in the last season the two teams will meet twice, beating their Raleigh rivals by a combined 31 points.
For an impressive performance in a losing effort, one looks to NC State's CJ Leslie. The forward led the team with 24 points and 12 rebounds while not committing any turnovers. This team has to become Leslie and point guard Lorenzo Brown's. Brown's 18 point, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists were good enough to put him in the same category as Marshall when looking at ACC point guards. Mark Gottfried has done a good job in his first season at Raleigh but just lost three straight to the best the conference has to offer and NC State's bubble is quickly popping.
Maryland 75, Miami 70-
James Padgett (35) is surrounded by teammates after completing a late three point play. photo via Baltimore Sun/Kenneth K. Lam
Maryland may have the harshest crowd in the conference. The team rode the momentum of the screaming fans to a clutch victory. James Padgett was the hero, grabbing an offensive rebound and completing a three point play in the closing minute to help the Terps secure their sixth ACC victory. Sean Mosley may have been the most impressive Terp, scoring 15 points while dishing out 6 assists and grabbing 5 boards. The conference's leading scorer Terrell Stoglin scored 20 points on 6 of 17 shooting after Mark Turgeon claimed the star sophomore "gets his" while not necessarily looking for the team win.
Miami may have just fell off the NCAA train. The Hurricanes were riding their victory at Duke hard in order to stay on the bubble and now have dropped to 7-6 in ACC play. They clearly missed Durand Scott after he fouled out in the final minute as they wasted an opportunity to tie with a Shane Larkin turnover. Kenny Kadji scored 16 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in the losing effort.
Virginia 61, Virginia Tech 59-
Virginia's Mike Scott goes up for a dunk against Virginia Tech. photo via Don Peterson/AP
Virginia righted the ship by not allowing a Virginia Tech sweep of the season series. Virginia did it with their defense, holding the Hokies scoreless for an eight minute stretch to overcome a three point halftime deficit. Both teams were cold in the last four minutes and the Cavaliers defense outdid the Hokies'. Mike Scott led all scorers with 20 points while grabbing 9 boards. Sammy Zeglinski helped out with 13 but Virginia still won this almost entirely with defense.
Erick Green continues to impress, scoring 17 of his 19 points in the second half. Green has endured a rough season, becoming a complete player while his team is far from a finished project. The junior has to use this momentum into next season though, as he will be joined by sensational freshman Dorian Finney-Smith and sophomore Jarell Eddie, who showed his athleticism with a block on possible ACC player of the year Mike Scott.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Reaction: Wednesday's Mayhem
This article cannot begin with anything other than discussing how amazing THE game was. The best game of this year's college basketball season, you have to give props to Austin Rivers and the determination of a Duke team that never gave up. The other two games, in case you were too tuned in to Carolina-Duke, were a surprising loss by a hot Florida State team to bottom-dweller Boston College, and Virginia putting their stingy defense to work one more time to dominate Wake Forest.
Winners:
Austin Rivers: The star that Duke fans have seen glimpses of has finally fully arrived. The freshman, who came in as the number one recruit a year ago, poured in 29 points while etching his name into Duke-UNC lore with a shot for the ages. Not only do we know that Rivers can drive but on a court that featured the like of Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Reggie Bullock, and Harrison Barnes, Rivers was the best shooter. It will be fun to see how teams try to defend the dual threat, especially knowing that he has become Duke's top weapon.
Tyler Zeller: In a losing effort, Zeller continued to put up numbers that put him in the talks for conference player of the year. Zeller scored 19 of his 23 and secured 8 of his 11 boards in the first half, becoming the sole reason Carolina was able to stay in the game and take a three point lead into the half. Look for Zeller and Virginia's Mike Scott to battle it out for POY the rest of the season.
Jordan Daniels: The Boston College freshman made sure that his team could finish the year with at least one big time win under their belt. The guard scored a career high 19 points, including four threes, that helped push the Eagles past soaring Florida State. Daniels' first three was the beginning of a 23-3 run by the Eagles that put the game out of reach of a comeback.
Mike Scott: No surprise to see the Virginia redshirt senior here, as he has been all year. Not only did Scott put up his average 19 points but he set a school record by going 9-9 from the field. On a night when Zeller led his team for one half in a losing effort, Scott led his team to a blowout win. More good news for him? He got help, four other Cavaliers scored in double figures.
Losers:
Reggie Bullock: Bullock was in the middle of controversy during a chippy end to the first half. The sophomore was trying to keep Rivers from getting the ball with under a minute to go. The matchup got physical and Rivers ended up on the grounded. Bullock "stumbled" over Rivers and the refs had to interfere after UNC's John Henson and Duke's Tyler Thornton started talking too. What's worse? Bullock scored only four points to Rivers' 29. Carolina missing Dexter Strickland?
Wake Forest Offense: The Deacons managed just 44 points on 34% shooting against a defense that is used to seeing those kind of numbers from their opponents. Travis McKie was matched up with Scott all night and managed a rough 14 points. CJ Harris, the leading scorer for the Deacons, was held to ten. These two got no help, as the rest of the team managed a mere 20 points.
Luke Loucks, Florida State Offense: The Seminoles point guard has been on a quiet tear lately but came out flat against a determined Boston College defense. Loucks ended with just two points on 1-8 shooting, a representation of Florida State's offense as a whole, which shot below 40% and turned the ball over 14 times to just 8 assists.
Winners:
Austin Rivers: The star that Duke fans have seen glimpses of has finally fully arrived. The freshman, who came in as the number one recruit a year ago, poured in 29 points while etching his name into Duke-UNC lore with a shot for the ages. Not only do we know that Rivers can drive but on a court that featured the like of Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Reggie Bullock, and Harrison Barnes, Rivers was the best shooter. It will be fun to see how teams try to defend the dual threat, especially knowing that he has become Duke's top weapon.
Tyler Zeller: In a losing effort, Zeller continued to put up numbers that put him in the talks for conference player of the year. Zeller scored 19 of his 23 and secured 8 of his 11 boards in the first half, becoming the sole reason Carolina was able to stay in the game and take a three point lead into the half. Look for Zeller and Virginia's Mike Scott to battle it out for POY the rest of the season.
Jordan Daniels: The Boston College freshman made sure that his team could finish the year with at least one big time win under their belt. The guard scored a career high 19 points, including four threes, that helped push the Eagles past soaring Florida State. Daniels' first three was the beginning of a 23-3 run by the Eagles that put the game out of reach of a comeback.
Mike Scott: No surprise to see the Virginia redshirt senior here, as he has been all year. Not only did Scott put up his average 19 points but he set a school record by going 9-9 from the field. On a night when Zeller led his team for one half in a losing effort, Scott led his team to a blowout win. More good news for him? He got help, four other Cavaliers scored in double figures.
Losers:
Reggie Bullock: Bullock was in the middle of controversy during a chippy end to the first half. The sophomore was trying to keep Rivers from getting the ball with under a minute to go. The matchup got physical and Rivers ended up on the grounded. Bullock "stumbled" over Rivers and the refs had to interfere after UNC's John Henson and Duke's Tyler Thornton started talking too. What's worse? Bullock scored only four points to Rivers' 29. Carolina missing Dexter Strickland?
Wake Forest Offense: The Deacons managed just 44 points on 34% shooting against a defense that is used to seeing those kind of numbers from their opponents. Travis McKie was matched up with Scott all night and managed a rough 14 points. CJ Harris, the leading scorer for the Deacons, was held to ten. These two got no help, as the rest of the team managed a mere 20 points.
Luke Loucks, Florida State Offense: The Seminoles point guard has been on a quiet tear lately but came out flat against a determined Boston College defense. Loucks ended with just two points on 1-8 shooting, a representation of Florida State's offense as a whole, which shot below 40% and turned the ball over 14 times to just 8 assists.
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