ACC Mock Draft Look-in

Are Austin Rivers and Harrison Barnes going to be the first two ACC players selected in this year's draft? (Follow the link). -photo via Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jawliw9ZphU

Mason Plumlee announced via twitter today that he was excited to return for his senior season at Duke and became the latest ACC player to announce one way or the other. While this is the time for players to either get ready to come back and represent their school for another season or prepare for the draft, it is also time to look at mock drafts and see where they are likely to be selected. So, I’ve decided to look into several different mock drafts and discuss whether I agree with the experts or not on those who are definitely going to be in the pool in June. (Remember that the NBA draft is based on a ping pong ball selection where the worst team in the league gets 25 of 100 balls, the second worst gets 17 out of 100, etc… so when you see Portland listed as drafting 5 in one mock draft and 7 in the other it is because of this.)

Harrison Barnes, 6’8”, 223, SF, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 5, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 7, Portland
Walter Football: No. 8, Cleveland
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 6, Toronto
Me: No. 6, Toronto. Barnes may have actually moved up because of James Michael McAdoo’s decision to return for his sophomore season at UNC just because the top ten in this year’s draft (besides Anthony Davis) does not boast many game-changers and McAdoo may have been the one with the most upside. The Raptors are a team that boasts futures at the center (Andrea Bargnani), shooting guard (DeMar DeRozan), and point guard (Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless) positions. They need some help at the forward positions, however. James Johnson, a second year player out of Wake Forest, has gotten most of their starts, but has not progressed as quickly as Raptor fans might like. Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may be the only small forward that is going to be drafted earlier this year than Barnes. In terms of the other predicted locations for Barnes, I do not see Portland as a great fit because both Nicolas Batum and Gerald Wallace are solid small forwards. Cleveland could work, but they also have a better chance of drafting lower than the Trailblazers, who are drafting in New Jersey’s spot.

Austin Rivers, 6’4”, 203, SG, Duke, Fr.
nbadraft.net: No. 9, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 16, Philadelphia
Walter Football: No. 17, Minnesota
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 14, Phoenix
Me: No. 13, Utah. First of all, Utah should be drafting lower than number nine with Golden State’s pick. The Jazz are going younger and could have a fully set, youth-filled lineup with Rivers joining Al Jefferson (C), Paul Millsap (PF), and Gordon Hayward (SF) to follow veteran Devin Harris (PG). The problem for the Jazz is the do not have a one-on-one player who can break down defenses with their dribble. That is exactly what Rivers is best at. I could also see the Jazz looking for a point guard to replace Harris, who turns 30 this year and seems to be stuck at 10 points and 5 assists. The Jazz could also look at Rivers as a point project, who can be turned into a playmaker from that position if his passing improves. Rivers will not be an immediate impact player and has to get used to NBA defenses, but could be a key addition for a Jazz team that seems to be playing too slowly. It will be a stretch for Rivers to make it past the lottery but if he makes it to Philadelphia that could be ideal for him. The Sixers are another team that plays slower and could use a guard that could break down defenses. They do, however, pride themselves on defense, something Rivers needs to improve on tremendously. Minnesota would be another good fit if he made it that far, mostly because they do not have a true shooting guard on their roster besides Wesley Johnson, who has been a bit of a bust in his first two seasons. Luke Ridnour has been starting the majority of their games at shooting guard and can certainly score but is not a break down type of player and does not have the size to play the two guard spot. The Wolves have a tremendous future in the frontcourt with Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic and should be looking to draft a guard, whether it’s Rivers or not.

Tyler Zeller, 6’11”, 240, PF/C, North Carolina, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 11, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 10, New Orleans
Walter Football: No. 11, Milwaukee
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 10, New Orleans
Me: No. 10, New Orleans. Zeller made his living throughout college by outrunning opposing big men and receiving feeds from point guard Kendall Marshall for easy lay-ins. He had a decent post game but, much like Tyler Hansbrough before him, used strength more than agility much of the time. His defensive presence continued to improve. I don’t see Zeller making an immediate impact as a pro, mostly because he won’t be able to outrun opponents and needs to work on his post moves more and not rely on his frame, which will not hold up against NBA bigs, as much. That’s why I see New Orleans being a perfect fit. Chris Kaman is one of the only consistent players on a weak roster in New Orleans and has a similar mindset to the game as Zeller. Kaman came out of Central Michigan with a similar repertoire as Zeller, and, after adding 25 pounds, came out as a starting center. Emeka Okafor is also there, but injuries have continued to deplete his once promising career. If Zeller can work his way into the system and follow Kaman’s footsteps they could make a tough frontcourt. Portland works similarly with LaMarcus Aldrige, but the Trailblazers forward has more talent and a better mid-range game than Zeller and plays the position that he is best suited for. The Blazers lack a consistent center, even though Marcus Camby has had his healthiest year in a long time. But I do not see Zeller being an immediate starter as a center, especially with his lack of size. Milwaukee just lost Andrew Bogut but Ersan Ilyasova, who also mimics a lot of Zeller’s game, is only 24 and seems to be the future inside for the Bucks. The bad news for Zeller is that he is competing against a plethora of power forwards, including Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson of Kansas, Andre Drummond of Connecticut, Arnett Moultrie of Mississippi State, Perry Jones of Baylor, Jared Sullinger of Ohio State, and Meyers Leonard of Illinois. Zeller could be seen as the most mature, but also the least ready for a starting role.

Kendall Marshall, 6’4”, 197, PG, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 14, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 14, Phoenix
Walter Football: No. 16, Denver
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 11, Portland
Me: No. 14, Phoenix. I really think that Marshall is going to end up having the best NBA career out of all the ACC prospects coming out this year. He has the best vision out of anyone coming out of the college ranks in years and reminds many of Jason Kidd. His shot remains the biggest question but point guards have succeeded in the NBA without a great outside shot (i.e. Rajon Rondo, Ty Lawson, etc…). Marshall looks the most NBA ready to me, and with improved defense, could be a solid contributor right away for whichever team he plays for. If he were picked by Phoenix that would just be a plus. Although he does not play like Steve Nash, he certainly could learn a lot from him. From his outside shooting to his dribbling ability, Nash is one of the most complete offensive players of the past decade. A Utah pick could make sense, but if they pick Rivers I don’t see Marshall joining him in the backcourt. Denver makes no sense to me, as fellow Tar Heel Ty Lawson is playing the best basketball of his career and is not showing any signs of letting up. Portland also has a Tar Heel in Raymond Felton who has been a traveler throughout his career but is a solid contributor. Felton plays more like Marshall and could take him under his wing, but there are still significant differences in their game. The only other true point guard who could be selected this early in the draft is Weber State’s Damian Lillard, who is a better scorer but not nearly as good of a passer. He also does not possess the size that makes Marshall a matchup nightmare already.

John Henson, 6’10”, 220, PF, North Carolina, Jr.
nbadraft.net: No. 17, Denver
draftexpress.com: No. 8, Detroit
Walter Football: No. 19, Philadelphia
Me: No. 18, Philadelphia. The problem for Henson is that there are the immense amounts of power forwards that I mentioned in the bit about Zeller. He has to compete with them, and he is clearly the most slender out of the group. Zeller is always going to be known as defense first, which bodes well for a lot of teams. He has the height to play against power forwards and does his best work coming as a help defender. Philadelphia prides themselves on defense and while the have Elton Brand set as a power forward, could see Henson as not only a replacement, but also someone who can give him rest and give opponents a completely different look. Brand is again and has a tremendous low post offensive game that he could teach to Henson. Henson could also step in with Brand and make a tough frontcourt to read with one strong, good rebounder and one long, athletic shot-blocker. I don’t see Denver mostly because they just traded to get JaVale McGee, who is a young and athletic center who has a tremendous upside. Al Harrington is the veteran here and should concentrate most of his efforts in raising McGee. Detroit could definitely work for two reasons. Ben Wallace, while reaching the end of his career, plays defensively a lot like Henson does and could help his shot blocking and rebounding. Greg Monroe is also the future at the center position and could team up with Henson to make a good frontcourt. But drafting him at eighth overall is a stretch and I see Detroit drafting one of the many other power forwards ahead of him.

Mike Scott, 6’8”, 237, PF, Virginia, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 43, Atlanta
draftexpress.com: No. 60, LA Lakers
Me: No. 37, Sacramento. Scott is going to be looked at to add depth for a roster. This is something that the Kings need. Not to say that Atlanta and the Lakers do not need this but I think Scott has the ability to be drafted ahead of New Mexico’s Drew Gordon, Seton Hall’s Herb Pope, and Cincinnati’s Yancey Gates, all big men who are expected to be drafted around the same time. I just think Scott has the most polished game out of the group, with a strong upper body, good rebounding skills, and a good outside shot.

Recapping Virginia's Season: Poor, poor Mike Scott

Virginia fell hard in the opening round of the NCAA tournament to Florida on Friday and capped off a harsh ending to a once promising season. The Cavaliers were not only led, but completely dictated by the play of Mike Scott. There could be an argument made that no other player in the conference could have led this team to a number four final seed in the conference and a birth in the Big Dance. But it was not all gravy for Virginia, and here's a month by month recap:

November- Grade: B+. Virginia was preseason number four in the conference and came out hot, scorching lowly South Carolina State and Winthrop. Then, they traveled to St. Thomas for the "Paradise Jam" and things got a little iffy. They had one of their worst losses of the year to TCU, but they rebounded by beating a good Drexel team and finishing off Drake in the fourth-place game of the preseason tourney. Virginia returned home and beat coach Tony Bennett's old school, Green Bay, and then got perhaps their most impressive victory of the season by beating Michigan in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Record after November: 6-1, Unranked.

Mike Scott had the Wahoo faithful flying high after beating Michigan and a successful December. -photo via Virginiasports.com

December- Grade: A. The Cavaliers were riding high after their win over Michigan. They had realized that the Wolverines were more than likely the best non-conference opponent they were going to face and beating them would go a long ways towards their RPI ranking. In December the Wahoos would go 6-0 with a successful cross country trip to Oregon and Seattle. The win over the Ducks in Eugene was the best win of the month but a 20 point whooping of George Mason at home looked good too. Scott was coming into his own during December until the win over then-winless Towson where he was held to just 7 points. Record after December: 12-1, Ranked 23 in ESPN/21 in AP.

January- Grade: B. This is where things began to become inconsistent for Virginia. They opened the new year with an impressive win over a solid LSU team and an impressive home victory over Miami. They looked good in losing by only three to Duke in Durham, but that's when everyone started talking about how the then-number-seventeen Cavaliers needed someone else besides Scott. The all-conference senior had 23 points and 9 rebounds and while Joe Harris had 14 points two starters did not score. "Basically, he was responsible for 60 percent of their offense in the first half," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "When a man does that in this type of game, he's a hell of a player." The rest of January was up and down with mostly the right results. They crushed lowly Georgia Tech on the road but came back and were surprised by Virginia Tech at home. They blew out Boston College before beating an eventual Sweet Sixteen team in NC State on their home floor. They continued by beating a decent Clemson team in a fashion that did not please Bennett. The Cavaliers, who were still ranked number 17 going into the game with the Hokies, began to look the part of a lower seed after the blemish on their home court and took a big hit from the media after that. The win at NC State was needed to quickly bring back their respectability. Record after January: 18-4, 5-3 ACC. Ranked 18 ESPN/16 AP.

Injuries were among the things that left Tony Bennett wondering at the end of the season. -photo via Virginiasports.com

February- Grade: C+. The Cavaliers went 3-4 during February but did not have a bad loss besides one to Clemson, who they had already defeated. It was not a good month in Charlottesville though, and any thoughts of Bennett being named conference (or even national) coach of the year or Scott being named conference player of the year were quickly vanishing. Virginia's other three losses of the month were at Florida State and to North Carolina twice. The matchup with Florida State was one of the most entertaining games of the season, especially from a defensive standpoint but the three point loss was just the beginning of a series of tough luck games for the Wahoos. "We got sped up and rattled in a stretch there where if you want to be successful in a game like this, you can't turn it away," Bennett said after the game, "We've got to clean up some of these turnovers and be more efficient to play against a team like this because baskets aren't easy to come by." The message never seemed to fully get across as the team lost a week later by 18 in Chapel Hill and three days after that by 12 at Clemson. The Cavaliers had a decent week after that by beating rivals Maryland and righting the ship against Virginia Tech but then fell to North Carolina after doing everything right and holding the Tar Heels to a season low 51 points. The Cavaliers were clearly confused after that game as their style of play still just was not winning the games for them. Record after February: 21-7, 8-6 ACC. Ranked 24 in AP.

March- Grade: C. The Cavaliers opened the final month of the season by losing by three to Florida State in the home finale. They left of Florida State's third buzzer beater of the season and Scott, who was clearly hurting after his, guard Sammy Zeglinski, and injured forward Assane Sene's senior night, put it perfectly by saying, "That was our last chance to play one of the top teams in the ACC. That was our last chance to beat one of the best teams. We had it, but we gave it away." Virginia, who now had injuries to both Sene and freshman Malcolm Brogdon, bounced back by beating a charged up Maryland team on their senior night, but had to go to overtime to do it. They finished the season by losing by three to an upstart NC State club in the ACC quarterfinals and getting dominated by Florida in the first round of the Big Dance. Scott scored 15 points in the finale and had his most impressive offensive performance in the Maryland game, scoring a career high 35. But it was not about that for him. Scott teared up after the final defeat because he knew how much farther this team could have gone. Final record: 22-10, 9-7 ACC. Second round, NCAA Tournament.

A healthy Joe Harris (defending) will be the leader of next year's Virginia team. -photo via the Daily Tar Heel

Next year: Joe Harris (So., 6-6 swingman who played anywhere from shooting guard to power forward. Top returning scorer at 11.3 points per game), Jontel Evans (Jr., one of the quickest players in the country, struggle shooting outside. First team all-defensive, former football player, has ability and strength to guard taller opponents. Led team with 3.9 assists and 1.6 steals per game), Malcolm Brogdon (Fr., injured his ankle late in the season and put a major dent in Virginia's offense. Top player off the bench averaged 6.7 ppg and 2.8 rpg), Akil Mitchell (So., listed at 6-8 but played bigger opponents all year. Long arms, sure to work with Bennett to improve shot blocking ability and come back as a defensive minded center), Darion Atkins (Fr., came in with similar style and mindset as Mitchell. At 6-8 and only 220 pounds, sure to add on weight and become a two-headed defensive monster on inside with Mitchell), Paul Jesperson (Fr., showed some promise and had to give up redshirt year after all the injuries. Clearly was not ready for college game but gained good experience and should learn under Harris.)

Incoming class: Evan Nolte- 6-7, 190 pound small forward. ESPN grade: 94, Scout.com 4 stars- "Nolte is one of the best shooters in the class. A big wing with length and a quick release, he is excellent in pick and pop situations. He does need to get better laterally on the defensive end, and isn't a super athlete, but his size and shooting ability makes him a nightmare to defend."

Justin Anderson- 6-5, 210 pounds small forward. ESPN grade: 94, Scout.com 4 stars- "At 6-foot-6, Anderson, a wing out of Virginia, is an elite level athlete that has molded himself into a terrific defender. He moves well laterally, has the strength to take contact and is a presence on the defensive end. He also make his mark rebounding the basketball and corralling put backs. He still needs to develop his offense, as well as his outside shot, but he has a lot of raw talent."

Mike Tobey- 6-11, 210 pound center. ESPN grade: 92, Scout.com 4 stars- "Right now Tobey is more about what he will be rather than what he is, but at 7-feet tall, very few players run the floor like him. He is a good shot blocker and someone who can also hit a mid-range jumper. Now Tobey needs to get stronger and have a better feel for how to score on the block, but the upside is there once he gets into a college weight program."

Teven Jones- 6-0, 180 pound point guard. ESPN grade: unranked, Scout.com 3 stars- no biography available.

If the favorites win, how the ACC Tournament will play out

This is a bracket of what the tournament would like like if the favored teams won the games they were supposed to in the final week. Most notably in those games is Duke beating North Carolina, but there is also Maryland losing twice, including to Virginia at home, and Miami losing tonight at NC State. The bottom four teams should all end up at 4-12, provided NC State beats Virginia Tech in Blacksburgh (no easy feat), Boston College beats Georgia Tech at home, and Georgia Tech beats Wake Forest at home. If this happened, Virginia Tech would own the tiebreaker with a better overall record, followed by Wake, Georgia Tech, and finally Boston College.

The things the immediately pop out when looking at this bracket from top to bottom are numerous. First, NC State has beaten Boston College twice this year, escaping with a five point win in Chestnut Hill. However, they lost at home to Virginia in a hard fought battle, where they had no answer for Mike Scott and lost by just one. Still one has to believe NC State would like to draw Virginia over Florida State or North Carolina, both of whom dismantled the Wolfpack with relative ease. Next, Maryland and Virginia Tech may end up being the most interesting game on the first day. The two teams have only played once this year, with Maryland winning by four at home. Terrell Stoglin had 28 points that game and Virginia Tech's backcourt could not match up with him. We have seen improvement in the Hokies since then, especially from Erick Green, and that matchup could be between potential all-conference guards. The Hokies would love another shot at Duke in the second round after just losing to them in overtime in Durham, although they have already beaten Virginia once and took Florida State down to the last second. Neither of those matchups seems likely for Tech, as they are pretty comfortably in the nine spot.

In the bottom of the bracket, Miami would love to draw Georgia Tech, already beating them by an easy 15 in Atlanta. The Hurricanes would also love to get Florida State again, a team they see as being able to put away comfortably with or without the reinstated Reggie Johnson. Florida State has to be rooting for the Hurricanes tonight versus NC State, as they would much prefer to play a Wolfpack team they dismantled earlier this month. If the draw came out like this, look for Miami to increase their NCAA tournament chances by making a push to the semifinals. In the final quadrant Clemson meets Wake Forest in a matchup that Clemson would love. The Tigers have beaten the Deacons by a combined 31 points in two game this year and are on a roll at the moment. If the Tigers got North Carolina one would think they would be excited, as well. The Tigers lost by 22 in Chapel Hill earlier this month but kept the game within ten for about 32 minutes. The Tar Heels' feelings could go either way after the Duke game. If they win, count on them having a lot of energy and momentum going into the postseason. If they lose, they could either drag themselves down or regroup and try to make it to the championship for a third meeting. Also, they have to be rooting for the Hurricanes the rest of the way, too. Tonight, they will be going for Miami just because NC State is not their favorite, and during the tournament (if it played out like this) they would love to face them instead of Florida State, who beat them by 33 points in January.

Anyway you look at it, get ready for a hell of a ACC tournament.

Top 40 Players of the ACC: No. 5-1

North Carolina's Harrison Barnes (center) tries to break free through the stifling defense of Virginia's Mike Scott (23). -photo via Gerry Broome/Associated Press


The anticipation is finally over folks, it's time to unveil the top 5 players in the ACC. Without further ado...

5. Kendall Marshall, North Carolina- For Kendall Marshall, his journey has been a little strange. He came in as a top 30 recruit but was on the sideline for the better part of the first half of his freshman season. Larry Drew II was the starting point guard for the Tar Heels during that time. Since then Drew transferred to UCLA after riding the bench and Marshall has become the best passer in college basketball. Marshall has played the exact same amount of minutes as he did last year and now has 275 assists (9.8 apg), 45 more than he did a year ago. His total of 505 puts him at a pace to outdo Bobby Hurley's NCAA record of 1,076, provided Marshall stays all four years. The knock for the 6-4 Marshall was his scoring, and when he scored a career high 22, including 4-5 from three in the Tar Heels most recent matchup against NC State, the rest of the season had a collective "uh-oh". With the most effective "eye for the open guy", Marshall could become a lottery pick if he starts hitting outside shots.

4. Michael Snaer, Florida State- Michael Snaer's numbers are not going to wow you, averagin 13.7 ppg and 3.7 rpg but coach Leonard Hamilton recently came out saying he is "the best perimeter defender in the conference--and it's not even close". Snaer has not only showed defense prowess this season, but also exploded into the team leader. The junior came in as a McDonald's All-American and Seminole fans had high hopes 8.8 points per game as a freshman. But his sophomore year showed little hope as he remained at 8.8 exactly. This season is a different story. The multi-talented guard leads the ACC's best field goal percentage defense and is only one of two players to average double digits. Oh, I almost forgot, he hit a game winner to end Duke's 45 game home winning streak and completed a frantic comeback by hitting a game winner with 2.6 seconds left to avoid an upset bid by Virginia Tech.

3. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina- 3 is a good number for Barnes, seeing as that might be the position he will be picked in June's NBA draft. 3 is also the position that the 6-8 Barnes will snuggle into nicely as a pro for the next decade plus. 3 is also the position that no one in the country can match up with. Barnes's length and natural athleticism make him a matchup nightmare. He average's 18 points a game, good to lead the nation's second most proficient scoring offense, and good enough to be second best in the conference. Given that North Carolina will end up with four of the top seven players on this list, it's hard to imagine him not averaging more just about anywhere else in the country. As an ACC fan, it's impossible not to know what kind of expectations Barnes came in with. He was selected preseason All-AMERICAN, becoming the first ever freshman to do that, and was expected to be a good step ahead of future first round draft pick Kyrie Irving. Since the initial result was not completely up to expected, Barnes has been nothing short of spectacular.

2. Tyler Zeller, North Carolina- Tyler Zeller came into this season as probably the fourth option on this Tar Heel squad. He has come to the end of his up and down, four year career as the number one player on the squad. People wanted to criticize Zeller for being soft, not athletic enough, and hurt too often. He proved all doubters wrong by averaging a tremendous 15.4 ppg and 9.4 rpg. He is probably most noted for his work ethic and team effort these days, showing it by beating everybody down the floor throughout every game and being on the other end of a Kendall Marshall assist. While he is in the conversation for best offensive big man in the country, he has also teamed up with John Henson to make the most intimidating interior defense in the nation. Zeller is also the story that we all miss in college basketball. He's a senior who is set to graduate and has overcome injuries that kept him to 25 total games his freshman and sophomore seasons.

1. Mike Scott, Virginia- Scott, after the past few games, has reemerged as my pick for ACC player of the year. Scott averages a team high 17.3 points and 8.2 rebounds a game and is a natural team leader as a fifth year senior. Scott is also the most VALUABLE player in the conference, with only one other player on the team averaging double figures. Coach Tony Bennett has instituted a defense first, defense second philosophy in Charlottesville, as seen in their second ranked nationally scoring defense of 52.1 points against per game. Scott is the ring leader on the defensive side of the ball for the Wahoos, plugging the middle while also having the range to defend outside. Scott is taking 23% of the Cavaliers shots, and not a bad choice to do that if you are going to pick someone. To me, it's a clear choice for player of the year: who means most to their team? Mike Scott--by a long ways.