The ACC teams, in my opinion of bracketology, turned out like this:
Duke: 1 seed, Midwest Region (St. Louis). RPI:3 SOS: 3. Best Win: Michigan St.-N (4th in RPi). 6-4 vs. Top-50. Worst Loss: Miami (49). Last 10: 8-2. Right now, Duke has one of the top 4 resumes in the country. A win tonight against Florida State would also erase the memory of one of their losses. Duke's road is going to travel through Greensboro in the first and second round no matter what, giving a nice home court feeling. I have them going to St. Louis for their regional games just because Kentucky is arguable the overall number one seed and certainly one of the top two. They want to go to Atlanta just as much as the Blue Devils and deserve their choice a little more as of right now. If the tournament set up as it is here, I see Duke cruising over UNC-Asheville, beating a surging Kansas State team in a close game, taking down an overrated Louisville team, and then a neutral court rematch with Ohio State, who pasted the Blue Devils in Columbus earlier this year.
North Carolina: 2 seed, West Region (Phoenix). RPI: 5 SOS: 12. Best Win: Michigan St.-N (4th in RPI). 5-4 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Florida St (19). L10: 9-1. North Carolina is certainly the two seed that is challenging most for a one seed right now, with Missouri right behind them. They had to be put in the West Region in order to play the lowest ranked two seed (Michigan State). This could easily change to the East Region in order to be closer to home, but they would then have to play Syracuse in Boston. A rematch against Kentucky is something the committee tries to avoid and there is no way they are going to be put in the same region as Duke. The Tar Heels will also start in Greensboro no matter what and if the tournament set up like so I would see them winning easily over Bucknell, getting and beating Iowa State in the second round, defeating a big Baylor team in the Sweet Sixteen and setting up a rematch with the Spartans for the regional championship.
Florida State: 5 seed, East Region (Boston) RPI: 19 SOS: 13. Best Win: @Duke (3rd in RPI). 4-4 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Boston College (222). L10: 9-1. That Boston College loss does not look good on Florida State's resume. Neither does a loss to Clemson (150) or Princeton (98). But the Seminoles do still boast a tough schedule and solid RPI. Wins over Duke and Virginia in their remaining games and then a good showing in the ACC tournament could boost them into a top three seed. Because they are in a 4-5 region the four seed would not get a very good pick at where it wanted to go, meaning these matchups may end up being in Portland or Albuquerque. If it shaped up like this, I like Florida State beating a pesky St. Joe's in the first round, a close battle with Indiana or Northern Iowa (could see NI pulling that upset), and then a showdown in Boston with Syracuse.
Virginia: 7 seed, South Region (Atlanta) RPI: 34 SOS: 101. Best Win: Michigan (10th in RPI). 2-3 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Clemson (150). L10: 6-4. Virginia needs to beat North Carolina on Saturday if they want better than the 7 seed I gave them. They are clinging on to a victory of Michigan early in the year and love seeing the Wolverines succeeding but they need some more help. In this scenario they would have to go to Omaha and play a feisty and hot New Mexico team. If they snuck by New Mexico they would have to go up against Missouri, which I think would be a game that Mike Scott could control and Virginia would match up well with their guards. However, this is far from comfortable territory for Virginia and a win over UNC, followed by Florida State, and then a strong showing in the tournament should boost them up.
Miami: 12 seed, West Region (Phoenix) RPI: 49 SOS: 32. Best Win: @Duke (3rd in RPI). 1-6 Top-50. Worst Loss: @Maryland (89). L10: 6-4. Miami is limping hard and needs a win over Florida State on Sunday to patch up their record versus the top teams in the country. They are still riding the Duke win hard and manage to sneak in as one of the last four in because of a strong strength of schedule. Southern Miss would be a blessing for Miami to get in the first round but Florida would not stop short of putting a smack down on the Hurricanes.
NC State: 13 seed, West Region (Phoenix) RPI: 64 SOS: 33. Best Win: @Miami (49th in RPI). 1-8 Top-50. Worst Loss: Georgia Tech (186). L10: 5-5. I'm not sure that NC State actually makes it at this point, but I wanted to put them in mostly to talk about them. State needs to finish the season without anymore losses. 49th ranked Miami is not a "big time win" but beating them twice would help their chances. State blew its chances in the last three games versus Duke, UNC, and Florida State. Unless they get to the finals of the ACC tournament I don't see much of a chance for them. But just for fun let's see what they would do if the tournament shaped up like this: they would lose in the play-in game to a reeling Illinois team. Maybe it would be better to try to make a run in the NIT?
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