ACC Mock Draft Look-in

Are Austin Rivers and Harrison Barnes going to be the first two ACC players selected in this year's draft? (Follow the link). -photo via Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jawliw9ZphU

Mason Plumlee announced via twitter today that he was excited to return for his senior season at Duke and became the latest ACC player to announce one way or the other. While this is the time for players to either get ready to come back and represent their school for another season or prepare for the draft, it is also time to look at mock drafts and see where they are likely to be selected. So, I’ve decided to look into several different mock drafts and discuss whether I agree with the experts or not on those who are definitely going to be in the pool in June. (Remember that the NBA draft is based on a ping pong ball selection where the worst team in the league gets 25 of 100 balls, the second worst gets 17 out of 100, etc… so when you see Portland listed as drafting 5 in one mock draft and 7 in the other it is because of this.)

Harrison Barnes, 6’8”, 223, SF, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 5, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 7, Portland
Walter Football: No. 8, Cleveland
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 6, Toronto
Me: No. 6, Toronto. Barnes may have actually moved up because of James Michael McAdoo’s decision to return for his sophomore season at UNC just because the top ten in this year’s draft (besides Anthony Davis) does not boast many game-changers and McAdoo may have been the one with the most upside. The Raptors are a team that boasts futures at the center (Andrea Bargnani), shooting guard (DeMar DeRozan), and point guard (Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless) positions. They need some help at the forward positions, however. James Johnson, a second year player out of Wake Forest, has gotten most of their starts, but has not progressed as quickly as Raptor fans might like. Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may be the only small forward that is going to be drafted earlier this year than Barnes. In terms of the other predicted locations for Barnes, I do not see Portland as a great fit because both Nicolas Batum and Gerald Wallace are solid small forwards. Cleveland could work, but they also have a better chance of drafting lower than the Trailblazers, who are drafting in New Jersey’s spot.

Austin Rivers, 6’4”, 203, SG, Duke, Fr.
nbadraft.net: No. 9, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 16, Philadelphia
Walter Football: No. 17, Minnesota
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 14, Phoenix
Me: No. 13, Utah. First of all, Utah should be drafting lower than number nine with Golden State’s pick. The Jazz are going younger and could have a fully set, youth-filled lineup with Rivers joining Al Jefferson (C), Paul Millsap (PF), and Gordon Hayward (SF) to follow veteran Devin Harris (PG). The problem for the Jazz is the do not have a one-on-one player who can break down defenses with their dribble. That is exactly what Rivers is best at. I could also see the Jazz looking for a point guard to replace Harris, who turns 30 this year and seems to be stuck at 10 points and 5 assists. The Jazz could also look at Rivers as a point project, who can be turned into a playmaker from that position if his passing improves. Rivers will not be an immediate impact player and has to get used to NBA defenses, but could be a key addition for a Jazz team that seems to be playing too slowly. It will be a stretch for Rivers to make it past the lottery but if he makes it to Philadelphia that could be ideal for him. The Sixers are another team that plays slower and could use a guard that could break down defenses. They do, however, pride themselves on defense, something Rivers needs to improve on tremendously. Minnesota would be another good fit if he made it that far, mostly because they do not have a true shooting guard on their roster besides Wesley Johnson, who has been a bit of a bust in his first two seasons. Luke Ridnour has been starting the majority of their games at shooting guard and can certainly score but is not a break down type of player and does not have the size to play the two guard spot. The Wolves have a tremendous future in the frontcourt with Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic and should be looking to draft a guard, whether it’s Rivers or not.

Tyler Zeller, 6’11”, 240, PF/C, North Carolina, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 11, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 10, New Orleans
Walter Football: No. 11, Milwaukee
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 10, New Orleans
Me: No. 10, New Orleans. Zeller made his living throughout college by outrunning opposing big men and receiving feeds from point guard Kendall Marshall for easy lay-ins. He had a decent post game but, much like Tyler Hansbrough before him, used strength more than agility much of the time. His defensive presence continued to improve. I don’t see Zeller making an immediate impact as a pro, mostly because he won’t be able to outrun opponents and needs to work on his post moves more and not rely on his frame, which will not hold up against NBA bigs, as much. That’s why I see New Orleans being a perfect fit. Chris Kaman is one of the only consistent players on a weak roster in New Orleans and has a similar mindset to the game as Zeller. Kaman came out of Central Michigan with a similar repertoire as Zeller, and, after adding 25 pounds, came out as a starting center. Emeka Okafor is also there, but injuries have continued to deplete his once promising career. If Zeller can work his way into the system and follow Kaman’s footsteps they could make a tough frontcourt. Portland works similarly with LaMarcus Aldrige, but the Trailblazers forward has more talent and a better mid-range game than Zeller and plays the position that he is best suited for. The Blazers lack a consistent center, even though Marcus Camby has had his healthiest year in a long time. But I do not see Zeller being an immediate starter as a center, especially with his lack of size. Milwaukee just lost Andrew Bogut but Ersan Ilyasova, who also mimics a lot of Zeller’s game, is only 24 and seems to be the future inside for the Bucks. The bad news for Zeller is that he is competing against a plethora of power forwards, including Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson of Kansas, Andre Drummond of Connecticut, Arnett Moultrie of Mississippi State, Perry Jones of Baylor, Jared Sullinger of Ohio State, and Meyers Leonard of Illinois. Zeller could be seen as the most mature, but also the least ready for a starting role.

Kendall Marshall, 6’4”, 197, PG, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 14, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 14, Phoenix
Walter Football: No. 16, Denver
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 11, Portland
Me: No. 14, Phoenix. I really think that Marshall is going to end up having the best NBA career out of all the ACC prospects coming out this year. He has the best vision out of anyone coming out of the college ranks in years and reminds many of Jason Kidd. His shot remains the biggest question but point guards have succeeded in the NBA without a great outside shot (i.e. Rajon Rondo, Ty Lawson, etc…). Marshall looks the most NBA ready to me, and with improved defense, could be a solid contributor right away for whichever team he plays for. If he were picked by Phoenix that would just be a plus. Although he does not play like Steve Nash, he certainly could learn a lot from him. From his outside shooting to his dribbling ability, Nash is one of the most complete offensive players of the past decade. A Utah pick could make sense, but if they pick Rivers I don’t see Marshall joining him in the backcourt. Denver makes no sense to me, as fellow Tar Heel Ty Lawson is playing the best basketball of his career and is not showing any signs of letting up. Portland also has a Tar Heel in Raymond Felton who has been a traveler throughout his career but is a solid contributor. Felton plays more like Marshall and could take him under his wing, but there are still significant differences in their game. The only other true point guard who could be selected this early in the draft is Weber State’s Damian Lillard, who is a better scorer but not nearly as good of a passer. He also does not possess the size that makes Marshall a matchup nightmare already.

John Henson, 6’10”, 220, PF, North Carolina, Jr.
nbadraft.net: No. 17, Denver
draftexpress.com: No. 8, Detroit
Walter Football: No. 19, Philadelphia
Me: No. 18, Philadelphia. The problem for Henson is that there are the immense amounts of power forwards that I mentioned in the bit about Zeller. He has to compete with them, and he is clearly the most slender out of the group. Zeller is always going to be known as defense first, which bodes well for a lot of teams. He has the height to play against power forwards and does his best work coming as a help defender. Philadelphia prides themselves on defense and while the have Elton Brand set as a power forward, could see Henson as not only a replacement, but also someone who can give him rest and give opponents a completely different look. Brand is again and has a tremendous low post offensive game that he could teach to Henson. Henson could also step in with Brand and make a tough frontcourt to read with one strong, good rebounder and one long, athletic shot-blocker. I don’t see Denver mostly because they just traded to get JaVale McGee, who is a young and athletic center who has a tremendous upside. Al Harrington is the veteran here and should concentrate most of his efforts in raising McGee. Detroit could definitely work for two reasons. Ben Wallace, while reaching the end of his career, plays defensively a lot like Henson does and could help his shot blocking and rebounding. Greg Monroe is also the future at the center position and could team up with Henson to make a good frontcourt. But drafting him at eighth overall is a stretch and I see Detroit drafting one of the many other power forwards ahead of him.

Mike Scott, 6’8”, 237, PF, Virginia, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 43, Atlanta
draftexpress.com: No. 60, LA Lakers
Me: No. 37, Sacramento. Scott is going to be looked at to add depth for a roster. This is something that the Kings need. Not to say that Atlanta and the Lakers do not need this but I think Scott has the ability to be drafted ahead of New Mexico’s Drew Gordon, Seton Hall’s Herb Pope, and Cincinnati’s Yancey Gates, all big men who are expected to be drafted around the same time. I just think Scott has the most polished game out of the group, with a strong upper body, good rebounding skills, and a good outside shot.

Previewing Next Year's Duke-UNC Matchups

Is it possible to have another game as good as the one in Chapel Hill this year? -photo via AP

James Michael McAdoo gave Carolina fans a huge breath of relief when he announced that he was going to return for his sophomore season yesterday. But that does not mean there are not glaring holes that Roy Williams is going to have to patch up with freshmen. The Tar Heels have another solid recruiting class coming in and return some key players from injury. Everyone that follows ACC basketball knows that the biggest two games of the schedule are the two matchups between Duke and UNC almost every year. Duke loses Miles Plumlee to graduation and Austin Rivers to early entry. However, the Blue Devils, who were considered very young this year, return with more experience than they have had since their championship run in 2010. Here’s a way-too-early look at the rivalry next season.

North Carolina

Point guard: Marcus Paige, Freshman or Dexter Strickland, Senior. Strickland is a natural shooting guard but was the backup for Kendall Marshall before suffering a knee injury that ended his season prematurely. Paige is thought of as a pure point guard who has excellent vision and good ball handling skills. With all freshmen not named Anthony Davis, Paige will most certainly have a getting-used-to first month or so before being able to handle all the responsibilities of the point. It would not surprise me if Strickland, who is the team’s best returning defender, to start off as the floor leader until Paige gets his feet under him. The other option here would be Stillman White, who did an excellent job in replacing Marshall during the NCAA tournament. However, White is out next season while venturing on a religious exodus. Either way, replacing Marshall may be the hardest thing Williams will have to do.

Shooting guard: Dexter Strickland, Senior, Leslie McDonald, Junior, PJ Hairston, Sophomore, or Reggie Bullock, Junior. This position certainly has the most depth out of any for the Tar Heels, and the most experience. As I mentioned above Strickland was the starting shooting guard until his season ending injury and should be in the starting lineup throughout. McDonald also missed the entire season with an injury and will return as a serious three-point threat. I don’t see McDonald getting many starts, but will certainly be one of the first players off the bench. Hairston came in as a big three point shooter as well, but struggled throughout the season, finishing with a 27.3% average from deep while jacking up almost four threes a game. He has shown signs of athletic talent and with more experience should become more comfortable. The problem for him is he has to compete against three other players that have shown their ability already. Bullock stepped into the starting lineup after Strickland went down and did an adequate job as both their best long-range shooter and a solid defender. With a talented backcourt it wouldn’t be surprising if the 6’7” Bullock moved into the small forward spot.

Small forward: Reggie Bullock, Junior, JP Tokoto, Freshman. With the only other real option at the small forward position being the freshman Tokoto, Bullock should get the nod as the starter here. Tokoto may be the weakest of Carolina’s recruits, but that says something because of his ability. A natural athlete who has an ongoing motor, the 6’6” wing player enjoys playing above the rim. He is not a great shooter and need to add weight to his slender 190-pound frame.

Power Forward: James Michael McAdoo, Sophomore, Desmond Hubert, Sophomore, Brice Johnson, Freshman. McAdoo will become the best post player for this team next year and his late season surge (averaged over 10 points the last seven games) should carry over into next season. He is a freak athlete and has good strength for a player his age. However, maturity becomes a question and his ability to handle the pressure of being the guy who is replacing the production of both John Henson and Tyler Zeller could weigh on him. Hubert was another freshman this year, but got little time on the court. He is a long player and it would not surprise me if Roy had him watch tape of Henson on the defensive end to turn him into a shot blocker. He should get more playing time this season, but is far from a solid contributor on the offensive end. Johnson is one recruit that Carolina fans should be anxious to see. A natural shot-blocker who can run the floor, he should fit into Roy’s system perfectly. He is not a great post up player yet and is another player who should watch Henson to find out exactly how he should play.

Center: Joel James, Freshman. James is coming into Carolina as a recruit that reminds a lot of people of Reggie Johnson of Miami. He is a huge player who can take up room on the block and has good rebounding skills. He is not quite the offensive player that Johnson is, but his strength matches that of anyone coming into college this year. It would not surprise me to see Carolina go small and have McAdoo at the center position a lot or to see McAdoo and Brice Johnson getting the starts down low.

Duke

Point guard: Quinn Cook, Sophomore, Tyler Thornton, Junior, Seth Curry, Senior. Cook may have the most upside out of the returning natural point guards (Thornton being the other) and has excellent vision for a freshman. He had the best assist to turnover ratio on the team and with more playing team could become a solid contributor. His shot remains a big question but if he is getting into the paint and finding the other shooters on the team while averaging around five assists a game, no Duke fan will complain. Thornton is the best defender on the team and seems to play with more energy than his teammates. Far from the most talented player on the squad, the rising junior makes up for it with grit and hustle. He needs to work on his offense, however, both as a passer and shooter. Teams were leaving him alone on the outside and trying to make him beat them instead of Curry or Rivers. It would not surprise me if he ended up just working on his shot all summer and coming back as more of a shooter than playmaker next season. Curry is a natural shooting guard but ran the point at times last year as well. Next year he needs to take over this team, and certainly has the offensive efficiency to do so. He is turning into a natural scorer and a better defender and will be looked to for leadership next year.

Shooting guard: Seth Curry, Junior, Andre Dawkins, Senior, Rasheed Sulaimon, Freshman. As I mentioned above, Curry is the best offensive threat returning for the Blue Devils. He will probably end up starting at the shooting guard position and having Cook become the main ball handler. Dawkins is one of the best shooters in the country, but only when he is on. He is very streaky and needs to work on his defense. He also came out of high school known as an athlete and has yet to show his confidence in driving to the rim. He has certainly shown glimpses of being able to jump as high as anyone on the court but shies away from moments where he has to find his own shot. Sulaimon is the only prospect that has committed to the Blue Devils so far and has a big upside. During the McDonald’s All American game, ESPN commentator and former Blue Devil Jay Williams said of Sulaimon, “Coach K envisions him being a Nolan Smith type of player.” These are big words, as Smith was a national player of the year finalist and helped lead the Blue Devils to a National Championship. He should fit into the Duke system well as he is one of the best shooters and scorers in the incoming class.

Small forward: Michael Gbinije, Sophomore, Alex Murphy, Freshman. Gbinije was used very sparingly this season, which comes as a mystery to many. A 6’7” athletic player who showed he can play defense and get above the rim seemed to be exactly what Duke needed this year. He has gotten high praise on social media from teammates and could gain a larger role next season. Murphy is more of a natural big but can spread the floor with his outside shot. He redshirted this season because Coach K did not see him as getting much playing time with the other bigs on the roster. Other options to start here are Dawkins, who got the start when the Devils went to their three-guard lineup, which was a majority of the time, or Shabazz Muhammad, who has yet to declare for a school. Muhammad is the number two overall recruit and certainly would be a major player for the Devils if he deciding to commit.

Power forward: Josh Hairston, Junior, Ryan Kelly, Senior. Hairston has been a role player both of his first two seasons at Duke and has shown signs of being able to body up with opposing bigs. At 235 pounds he is strong enough to annoy opposing centers. Kelly will more than likely be the starter here. He was missed when he went out with a foot injury before the ACC tournament. He has the ability to play defense on opposing bigs and at 6’11” he can stretch them outside with his three point shooting. A captain this past year, Kelly will be looked at to once again be a leader. Duke is waiting on another recruit here, in Amile Jefferson. Jefferson seems to have narrowed his choices down to Duke, NC State or Kentucky. He is a competitive, long player who has a tremendous upside.

Center: Mason Plumlee, Senior, Marshall Plumlee, Freshman. Mason will be a potential all-conference player if he returns. The best interior presence on the team last year has still not publicly stated if he is going to enter the draft or return for his senior season. He has incredible athleticism and is a good shot-blocker. He needs to continue to improve his post moves but could be a force if he returns. Marshall joined Murphy as a redshirt this season but is thought of as the best offensive post player out of the three brothers. He is long at 6’11” but needs to add weight to his slender frame. He is not thought of as quite as athletic as Mason or Miles but seems to have good basketball IQ. The final recruit Duke is waiting to hear from is Tony Parker. Parker is a big player at 255 pounds and can take up space down low. He would be another immediate impact player for the Blue Devils and is deciding between Duke, Ohio State and Georgia.

The Skinny: Clearly both teams have tremendous depth and that could only get better for Duke if they sign one or all three of the recruits they are waiting to hear from. UNC will have a new look this season without their top four players but returns from injury should give them confidence. Duke will also have a new look without Rivers, who was their best playmaker. I feel as though Rivers leaving may have been a blessing in disguise for Duke, however, as he did not seem to fit the mold of a Coach K player. It should be another interesting matchup between these two and I will be surprised if they fail to split again.

The Ten Best Freshman of the past Decade

Duke's JJ Redick (4) drives on North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough (50). These two had sensational careers, but how do their freshman years stack up against the best the ACC had to offer. -photo via Fayetteville Observer.


After Kentucky took home the National Championship behind the play of sensational freshmen, I got to thinking. I was remembering the best players that have come through the ACC and was thinking about the teams that won the national championships in the past decade. Then I started to think about how none of those teams had a freshman as their best player, as Anthony Davis was for Kentucky this season. But then when I thought about it more, there have been some sensational freshmen that have come through the conference since 2002. The “one-and-done” players have made their presence known in the conference, maybe not as much as Davis this year of Carmelo Anthony for Syracuse in 2003, but still have been there. So I decided to look into further and figure out who the best freshmen of the past decade (since the 2001-02 year) have been. I looked at both their stats and how far their team advanced that season. Anyways, here is your top ten:

10. Rashad McCants, North Carolina (2002-03)- McCants would eventually go down as one of the better players in the conference in recent memory after his three seasons at Carolina. That is surprising, considering his very productive freshman year. The guard averaged a team-high 17 points per game, while shooting a career best 49 percent from the field. What made the difference between McCants freshman year to junior year was that in his first season coach Matt Doherty could only take the Tar Heels to the NIT. Roy Williams was brought in in 2003 and immediately brought the Heels back to prominence. McCants teamed up with Raymond Felton and Sean May to bring Carolina their fourth National Championship in 2005. McCants would leave after that, his junior, season and suffer through a rocky first couple of years in the NBA.

9. JJ Hickson, NC State (2007-08)- Hickson stepped into a tough situation at NC State. Coach Sidney Lowe was a tremendous recruiter, as evidenced by his getting Hickson, a McDonald’s All American, but struggled to bring the Pack to any type of national recognition. Hickson was immediately looked at to be the number one option for the Wolfpack and did his absolute best to deliver. He was named ACC freshman of the year after averaging 15 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, but the team finished 15-16 and failed to make any postseason tournament. The forward left after one year and has enjoyed a mediocre career that includes starting for the Cleveland Cavaliers along with Lebron James.

-photo via Getty Images

8. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech (2009-10)- 2010 was not a special year for freshmen in the conference, but Favors, who came in as the number two overall recruit, did not disappoint Yellow Jacket fans. Favors started off a bit slow but ended with a 12.4 points per game average to go with 8.4 rebounds per game and an ACC best 61% FG shooting. Favors, much like Hickson, was immediately the go-to player for the Jackets, and led the Paul Hewitt-coached team to the second round of the NCAA tournament and a 23-13 record. Favors was consistently looked at as a top-rated NBA prospect and left after one season in Atlanta. He was picked third overall by New Jersey and has since been shipped to Utah. People are still waiting for the forward to deliver on his tremendous potential in the pros.

7. Marvin Williams, North Carolina (2004-05)- North Carolina was really good before Williams arrived. Roy Williams had brought this team back to national prominence with the talent of McCants, Felton, and May. Then the coach brought in Marvin and his recruiting ability was seen by conference foes. The highly touted recruit did not disappoint, averaging 11.3 points and 6.6 rebounds as arguably the most talented player on the most talented team in the country. The team went on to win the national championship and Williams left after one season. He has enjoyed the most successful career out of anyone on that Carolina team, being a mainstay in the starting lineup of the very consistent Atlanta Hawks team. Williams may be this high on my list because of his talent, and it can be argued that he would have been the best player on any other team in the country that year.

6. JJ Redick, Duke (2002-03)- Most know what Redick did in his career at Duke. He finished as the ACC’s all time leading scorer (upended by Tyler Hansbrough a few years later) and the all time leader in three pointers made and free throw percentage. Redick started this amazing career during his first season. He averaged 15 points and was named third team All-ACC on his way to leading the Blue Devils to the Sweet 16. Redick ended his career at Duke as being viewed as one of the best players ever to not win a national championship. The guard has gone on to continue improving his game and is now the first person off the bench for the Orlando Magic.

-photo via AP

5. Chris Paul, Wake Forest (2003-04)- Paul was an immediate success everywhere he went to play. He was named the North Carolina player of the year in high school, third team all-conference as a freshman, and an All-Rookie team in his first season in the NBA. It is hard to point to one part of Paul’s game that was the most amazing. He averaged a conference high 2.7 steals per game while averaging a team leading 5.9 assists per game. He also put in 14.8 points per game and amazed the media with his outside shooting. Paul led Wake Forest to a 21-10 record and a Sweet 16 appearance in 2004. The point guard has enjoyed the most successful NBA career out of anyone who has come through the conference in the past decade.

4. Luol Deng, Duke (2003-04)- Deng came in as the number two recruit in the country behind just Lebron James. He finished his first season at Duke as the top freshman in the conference and best playmaker on a final four team. Deng was one of the one-and-done players to come through the conference this past decade and one of the only ones that was NBA ready after just one season. Deng averaged 15.1 points per game and 6.9 rebounds per game as the Devils had perhaps the most talented team in the country but failed to get past Connecticut in the Final Four. Deng has enjoyed a very successful pro career and was named to his first All-Star game this season.

3. Craig Smith, Boston College (2002-03)- Not many remember Smith, probably because everything went downhill for the Eagles and him after his freshman season. Smith led his team with 19.9 points per game and 7.9 rebounds per game his freshman year and was named as a member of the national All-Freshman team. Smith led Boston College to a Sweet 16 appearance that season but his averages went down every season after that year and the team never enjoyed as much success as his first year. Smith was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft and has continually been mediocre in the pros.

-photo via Getty Images

2. Chris Bosh, Georgia Tech (2002-03)- Bosh did not do too much for the Yellow Jackets in terms of postseason play but is this high because of how he was able to continually be the best player on the court throughout his only college season. Bosh averaged 16 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 56 percent from the field. The Jackets only made it to the NIT but it was not because of the forward. It could be argued that Bosh was the most dominant freshman of the past decade. He was selected fourth overall in the 2003 draft by the Raptors, where he continued to be good but not enjoy any team success. After signing with Miami last season he has come closer to team success.

1. Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina (2005-06)- Arguably the best player of any age in the conference for the past decade, Hansbrough was also the best freshman. The center ended his career at North Carolina as the ACC’s all time leading scorer, but that all started during his first season in Chapel Hill. He averaged 18.9 points and 7.8 rebounds a game while garnering the ACC freshman of the year award. He led a team that was supposed to be rebuilding to a 23-8 record and a second round exit from the NCAA tournament. Hansbrough has gone on to have a successful NBA career, being one of the first players of the bench for the Indiana Pacers.

Honorable Mention: Austin Rivers, Duke (12), Harrison Barnes, UNC (11), Sylven Landesberg, UVa (09), Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake (09), Jeff Teague, Wake (08), Kyle Singler, Duke (08), Jeff Allen, VT (08), Brandon Costner, NC State (07), Javaris Crittenton, GT (07), Ty Lawson, UNC (07), Greivis Vasquez, Maryland (07), Raymond Felton, UNC (03), Julius Hodge, NC State (02)