Ok, things are just beginning to change in the ACC with the most recent new of North Carolina’s Kendall Marshall, John Henson, and Harrison Barnes leaving early but the landscape in the conference is also becoming more clear for next season. Austin Rivers of Duke and Dion Waiters of Syracuse (who, along with Pittsburgh, is joining the conference in the coming years) are the only other conference underclassmen who have declared for the NBA draft. Now Syracuse and Pitt are both possibilities to join next season, but may not. Either way, this is how it would play out in my mind if the teams stayed as they are now.
1. Duke
Losing: SG Austin Rivers- The team’s best playmaker and leading scorer left to fulfill his dream of playing in the NBA. The only true playmaker on the team, Duke does not lose much on defense. F/C Miles Plumlee- The senior captain of the team came on late as a rebounder, including a Coach K era record 22 boards against Maryland. Strongest player down low.
Returning: G Seth Curry- The best offensive weapon returning improved his defense as the season went along. A great long-range shooter proved he could score in other ways during stretches. F/C Mason Plumlee- The big man led the team in rebounding and may have been the best athlete on the squad. Needs to continue to work on his post moves and free throw shooting. F Ryan Kelly- Can stretch the court unlike any player in the conference with his outside shooting and length (6-11). PG Tyler Thornton- The team’s best on the ball defender helps his team by leading with energy. Needs to continue working towards being able to fully run the point. SG Andre Dawkins- The first person anyone thinks of when describing inconsistency. Can make the outside shot look very easy or go scoreless with a few turnovers. F Josh Hairston- A big body who hustles and plays good defense. PG Quinn Cook- The team’s best ball handler showed signs of great passing at times. Will probably gain more time with the departure of Rivers and could end up being the starting point guard.
Adding: F/C Marshall Plumlee-The freshman redshirted this season but has been called the best pure post player of any of the brothers. F Alex Murphy- Said to play like his brother at Florida, meaning a good outside shooter who can rebound. SG Rasheed Sulaimon- Incoming freshman is one of the top shooting guards in the country and just won the McDonald’s All-American 3-point contest.
Bottom Line: The loss of Rivers could go either way for Duke. Sure, he was their top offensive weapon, but also went against Coach K’s philosophy and ended in too many one on one scenarios for the Blue Devils. This will become Curry’s team and the consistency of the guard play, along with the maturity of the bigs, will determine whether Duke can make a late run.
2. NC State
Losing: SF CJ Williams- The senior leader of this squad has to be up for most improved player in the conference, if not the country this year. Hard work, hustle, and best body to battle opposing swingmen will be missed. PG Alex Johnson- Transfer came in and immediately made an impact with both his ball handling and outside shot.
Returning: PF CJ Leslie- One of the best talents in the country should come back and be a preseason All-ACC pick. Versatility to shoot a mid range shot and attacks the rim. PG Lorenzo Brown- Maybe the biggest upside of any player on the roster continued to get used to his role as ball handler as the season continued. Athletic freak that can drive and shoot. G/F Scott Wood- Arguably the best shooter in the conference was streaky at the end of the season. Opponents began to expend most of their energy in shutting down his outside shot. F/C Richard Howell- Best post player on the team almost averaged a double double. Should come back as a more aware player who will stay out of constant foul trouble. F Deshawn Painter- A good option off the bench has length and strength down low. An improved mid-range game will make him the best sixth man in the conference. C Jordan Vandenberg- The big Australian mysteriously never returned after injuring his shoulder in December. The big man takes up space however, and is one of the taller players in the country. F Tyler Harris- Little used but big upside with excellent athleticism. PF Thomas de Thaey- Also used sparingly but was called on when bigs got into foul trouble.
Adding: SF TJ Warren- Although not necessarily a great athlete, Warren has worked his way up to a top recruit with a solid build and an excellent shot. G Rodney Purvis- An excellent offensive weapon who can score and pass and is listed as one of the top guards in the country. PG Tyler Lewis- Leader who has excellent vision and knowledge of the point guard position.
Bottom Line: NC State is looking forward to next season. Their recruiting class is listed as one of the tops in the country, as all three are McDonald’s All-Americans. However they will have to figure out a true leader of the team, and Brown seems to fit that mould. Look for this team to continue to improve throughout the season and be near the top of the ACC standings come year’s end.
3. Syracuse
Losing: F Kris Joseph- The team’s leading scorer was an all-Big East performer this season and was the go-to player in the clutch for the Orange. G Scoop Jardine- The fifth year senior was the team leader in assists and was a co-captain. Hated by other teams, but loved by his teammates. SG Dion Waiters- Maybe the most talented player on the deep Orange squad was lost at times, including a couple boneheaded plays that led to the end of Syracuse’s season in the Elite Eight.
Returning: SG Brandon Triche- Very athletic guard was also streaky. Ability to go on runs in a game where he was the best shooter and also scoring off the bounce, but also the ability to get lost on defense and turn the ball over too much on offense. C Fab Melo- The Big East defensive player of the year may have improved more than anyone in the country this season. Had off the court problems in the classroom and it would not be surprising if he spurned the college scene. F CJ Fair- A long, athletic big with the ability to shoot mid range shots over most players in the country. Also inconsistent, had the ability to score 20 points in a game at times. SF James Southerland- Maybe the best shooter on the team, came on late as a serious threat from outside. Another streaky player who could break into stardom. F/C Rakeem Christmas- The freshman was thrust into a starting role after Melo was suspended for the NCAA tournament. A talent that is waiting to mature.
Adding: C/F DeJuan Coleman- A big body who is a tremendous rebounder and low post scorer. F Jerami Grant- Good offensive player who needs to add strength to his slender frame.
Bottom Line: Another good year could be shaping up for the Orange but the team needs to come together and play consistently up to their capabilities if they want to return to the final eight.
4. Florida State
Losing: F Bernard James- The team leader among bigs. 27-year-old seemed to have an awareness of his surrounding that cannot be replaced. SG Deividas Dulkys¬- Maybe the team’s best outside shooter, improved his defense by the end of the season, and worked off his inconsistent offense with consistent hustle. PG Luke Loucks- The floor general for the Seminoles continued to improve throughout his career. Heads up play may have only been matched by Marshall within the ACC. C/F Xavier Gibson- Talented athlete made his presence known on defense and around the rim on offense. A great dunker who seemed to amp up his teammates. G Jeff Peterson- One of the first players off the bench had the ability to shoot and pass. Strong but short guard made the most of his time on the court. C Jon Kreft- Another player who improved mightily as the season progressed. A hard worker who fixed his low post game.
Returning: SG Michael Snaer- Florida State’s best player was a second team All-conference selection and All-defensive selection. A hustle player who was there to make the clutch shot needs to continue improving his expanding, offensive game. G Ian Miller- A shoot first player who was second on the team in scoring despite coming off the bench. Should start next season and be one of the first couple of option on offense. Needs to improve his sight. PF Terrance Shannon- Big man averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds off the bench before a shoulder injury ended his season early. Applying for a medical redshirt and will be a key contributor next season. PF Okaro White- Big man came on late as his athleticism made him one of the better defenders on the team. Needs to add strength. G Terry Whisnant- Came in as the top recruit from North Carolina but struggled throughout the season. Could not find his shot and did not make the most of the minutes he got. Will be counted on much more next season.
Adding: G/F Montay Brandon- Athletic wing player is applauded for his versatility and upside. SG Aaron Thomas – Scorer has great range and is very athletic.
Bottom Line: The Seminoles are going through a state of change after this season and need to make adjustments. Snaer, however, has the ability to be the best player in the conference and could team up with Miller to make one of the best backcourts in the country. A successful transition could lead to another long run for the Seminoles.
5. North Carolina
Losing: F/C Tyler Zeller- The ACC player of the year will be missed but there are numerous ways the Tar Heels can go to replace him. Zeller can outrun any big in the country and finished averaging near a double double. PG Kendall Marshall- A pass first guard who can look up the court unlike anyone in the country, has already broken the single season ACC assist record. F Harrison Barnes- Barnes came in as the highest touted recruit since Lebron James but has failed to live up to the high standards set by the media. Thought of as a better fit in the pros, the small forward has the ability to be one of the best in the country. F John Henson- The best shot-blocker this side of Lexington, Henson made his presence known on the offensive end as well, scoring 13.7 points a game. The long forward will be counted on to gain more strength and toughness if he returns. G/F Justin Watts- The do everything senior will be missed more for his leadership and hard work than anything else. Not even close to the best talent on the roster, Watts may have worked harder this season than any Tar Heel.
Returning: G Reggie Bullock- The best outside shooter on North Carolina will be looked to take an increasing role as a scorer. G Dexter Strickland- The guards season was cut short after suffering an ACL tear in the 19th game of the season. The best defender on the team will most certainly jump back into the starting lineup. F James Michael McAdoo- A world of talent and the body that looks ready to make the jump to a premiere player. May be hurting his stock by coming back. G Leslie McDonald- The junior redshirted this season due to injury and will come back as feisty as ever. SG PJ Hairston- Came in as a shooter but wound up shooting less than 30% from long range. This should continue to be his game, and look for it to only improve.
Adding: PG Marcus Paige- One of the top incoming point guards would do great to add strength. PF Brice Johnson- The skinny big man is thought of as one of the top players at his position. C Joel James- One of the biggest recruits (280 pounds) in the country is known for his defense. SF JP Tokoto- The swingman is best known for his athleticism.
Bottom Line: The Tar Heels have the most to lose or most to win this offseason. They could end up losing five of their top seven players or coming back fully loaded. If everyone comes back they could be the early favorite to win a national title.
6. Miami
Losing: G Malcolm Grant- An all around player was looked to for late scoring. A driver by nature, was asked to play both guard positions and was known for good defense. SF DeQuan Jones- A good wing option who was always known as a role player but developed into a good defender and rebounder.
Returning: PF Kenny Kadji- A player with good size (6-11, 250) who can play with his back to the basket or from the outside. Was the most consistent player for a team that remained inconsistent. Transfer from Florida will be focal point of the offense next season. C Reggie Johnson- The biggest player in the conference (284 pounds) is remembered for his dominating performance in the win over Duke (27 points, 12 rebounds) but never played completely healthy this season. Could develop into the best low post scorer in the ACC if completely healthy. SG Durand Scott- The team’s emotional leader is a natural scorer who has improved his defense. The go-to player for the Hurricanes in the clutch will be the main threat from the outside next season. PG Shane Larkin- The All-Freshman team player showed off his quickness throughout the season and improved his passing. A pesty defender, should be amongst the top point guards in the conference next season. SG Rion Brown- Showed flashes of a top-notch offensive game while battling injuries. Tough player needs to work on staying consistent. G/F Trey McKinney Jones- A pure athlete who improved his long range shooting. Should return better defensively and could earn minutes when playing against good opposing small forwards. G/F Garrius Adams- Tore his meniscus early in the season and ended a campaign in which he was once again improving. Strong swingman was missed during second half of season.
Adding: SG Melvin Johnson- Another among a now long line of New Yorkers to commit to Miami, Johnson is a scorer at heart and regarded as a top player at his position.
Bottom Line: Without a huge class coming in Miami needs the return of Kadji and Johnson. Both of them, plus Scott and Larkin could be all-conference performers. This team was among the first out of the NCAA tournament but do not expect a healthy Hurricanes team to be left out next season.
7. Maryland
Losing: G/F Sean Mosley- The defensive stopper for the team this year was very versatile. A good build allowed Mosley to play opposing point guards or power forwards. C Berend Weijs- Skinny center played more this season but lost minutes at the end of the season to freshman Alex Len.
Returning: G Terrell Stoglin- The conference’s top scorer was named second team all-conference. He spurned to NBA draft to come back and Terps fans hope he can work on becoming more of a team player. G/F Nick Faust- The sensational freshman continued to improve as the season went on. An athletic specimen who can score from anywhere showed the ability to play anywhere from point guard to small forward. PF James Padgett- The best low post player all season for the team seemed to lose confidence with the emergence of other players but stayed the most consistent big on the team. Better defense and continued low post moves will complete a solid improvement. PG Pe’Shon Howard- Missed the second half of the season with a foot injury and was soon realized as one of the most important players in the conference. Stoglin and Faust were forced to play more point, which is not the natural position of either. Led the team in assists and was a good on-the-ball defender. Alex Len- Perhaps the best pro prospect on the team, the seven footer continued to improve and show of an impressive plethora of offensive moves as the season continued. Will be look to as a serious offensive weapon next season. F Ashton Pankey- The redshirt freshman showed his ability on the defensive end and on the boards. May earn a spot right off the bench next season and get significant minutes when opposing big men are having a good night. SG Mychal Parker- A good rebounder for a guard, turned the ball over too much. Should continue to add depth next season.
Adding: C Shaquille Cleare- A wide body who has great hands and good rebounding ability lacks a mid-range game. SF Jake Layman- An athletic swingman who can score from deep needs to add strength. PF/C Charles Mitchell- Another big body that plays bigger than his 6-7 frame but lacks pure athleticism.
Bottom Line: Coach Mark Turgeon is letting his presence be known by bringing in one of the best recruiting classes in the conference. The return of Stoglin, Faust, Howard, Padgett, and Len sets up a good starting five to mature the freshmen. Look for Maryland to make a push toward the NCAA tournament.
8. Virginia
Losing: PF Mike Scott- Perhaps the worse loss of a single player for any team in the conference, Scott was the bailout guy for the Cavaliers. He played as a power forward but had the ability to shoot from the outside and was gifted as a defender. G Sammy Zeglinski- The starting shooting guard and backup point guard for the Cavaliers may have been their best long-range weapon. He developed nicely into a defensive stopper and his leadership will be missed. C Assane Sene- A big man who showed so much promise continued to fight injuries throughout his career and had to end his final year after 19 games. A shot blocker who rebounded with the best of them would have been a huge boost this past season.
Returning: F/G Joe Harris- The Cavalier best offensive weapon not named Mike Scott was a good outside scorer who could also put the ball on the floor. If not for a hand injury, the end of his season could have gone much better. Will be looked at for leadership next season. PG Jontel Evans- Maybe the quickest player in the conference will need to improve his outside shot. A continued improvement of his vision could make him a dangerous driver in the form of a Ty Lawson. G/F Malcolm Brogdon- The freshman showed signs of true talent before being injured late in the season. He should come back as a serious weapon for the Cavalier and showed a lot of interest in Tony Bennett’s defensive formula. F/C Akil Mitchell- The lanky big man proved himself as a rebounder and continued to get better as a shot blocker as the season progressed. More weight to a slender frame will help the sophomore. PF Darion Atkins- Should make a two-headed lengthy nightmare for opponents when teaming up with Mitchell down low and with more strength will become a serious rebounding threat. G/F Paul Jesperson- The freshman was supposed to redshirt until the plethora of injuries left no other option than to bring him off the bench. He was clearly not ready for the college game but showed promise as a shooter.
Adding: SF Justin Anderson- A defensive minded athlete who fits perfectly in Bennett’s system and will do great to learn under Harris. F Evan Nolte- Known as a good shooter, his 6-8 frame makes it tough for opponents to defend him on the outside. C Mike Tobey- A player with all the potential in the world needs to get stronger to add to his already stellar ability to block shots.
9. Pittsburgh
Losing: G Ashton Gibbs- The only player who got significant time in Pitt’s final four days of three years ago leaves the program after having his (and the team’s) worst season. A pure scorer who enjoyed playing defense, his leadership will be missed. SF Nasir Robinson- A swing player who can score in a variety ways and rebound well for his position. His strength and apparent love for hustle are the biggest losses for the Panthers.
Returning: PG Tray Woodall- A pass first player who led the team in assists will be looked at for more scoring next season with the departure of Gibbs. A big factor in the Panthers’ success will be whether or not Woodall can handle more of a burden. SF Lamar Patterson- A slasher with a well-rounded game, has the ability to lead this team in points and rebounds from a smaller position next year. Could step into a leadership role. G/F JJ Moore- Another talented wing player who enjoys jacking up the threes. Needs to work on consistency from deep but could be another scoring weapon. PF Dante Taylor- Maybe the biggest key for the Panthers because he will be the main option in the post. A solid rebounder with good size, will have to improve on his defense. F Talib Zanna- Another forward who will be forced into more work in the paint than anywhere else. Minutes went up tremendously this year and should continue next season. PG John Johnson- The freshman will be counted on much more next year and showed signs of being a good passer. He will be Woodall’s immediate backup and should improve on his minutes played. SG Cameron Wright- The freshman struggled at times this year but showed signs of being able t do some dirty work. An improved shot will give him more minutes.
Adding: C Steven Adams- An athletic big man who enjoys playing defense needs to add strength. PG James Robinson- A good passer will be used sparingly but should do good to learn under Woodall.
Bottom Line: The good news for the Panthers is that they had depth last season. The bad news is that they are losing two key parts and Adams should be the only freshman coming in to get significant playing time. Everyone needs to step up in order for this team to be in the top half of the conference.
10. Virginia Tech
Losing: G/F Dorenzo Hudson- The team leader had the ability and body to match up with opponents of all sizes and offensive skills from long range. A bit of a quiet year this year after saying farewell to the Malcolm Delaney led offense and hello to the Erick Green led team. PF Victor Davila- The oft-injured forward was known more for his ability to match up with anyone in the low post but never felt comfortable in the system because he was never on the court for a long enough amount of time.
Returning: G Erick Green- The all-conference performer led the team in points, assists, and steals and played both the guard positions. A talented scorer also improved on the defensive end and will continue to be the team leader next season. F Jarell Eddie- A good scorer who can put the ball in the basket inside and out improved defensively this year. Should be a leader next season and will be asked to play a variety of positions. SG Robert Brown- A slasher who came into the league as a scorer. Did not get a tremendous amount of minutes playing behind Green but should develop into a nice complement. PF Dorian Finney-Smith- The best big man on the roster is unique in that he can guard opposing centers and also stretch them with his outside game. More athletic than most big men, Finney-Smith was able to score at will at times late in the season. C Cadarian Raines- There is a lot of talent with Raines and if his low post game continues to get better he could develop into a NBA talent. Although he led the team in blocks (25) he needs to improve on the defensive end. F CJ Barksdale- Another member of a good freshman class this year for the Hokies, Barksdale has the ability to slash or play with his back to the basket. Needs to improve his consistency and mid-range game.
Adding: PF Montrezl Harrell- A big time athlete who puts everything into every moment on the court needs to work on his mid-range game.
Bottom Line: This may be do-or-die for coach Seth Greenburg. And yes, everyone has said that for three years now, but with the return of a star in Green and a young team full of talent, Greenberg has to return the Hokies to the top of the conference.
11. Georgia Tech
Losing: G/F Glen Rice, Jr.- The talented son of a former NBA star, Rice continued to have off the court issues. He was kicked off the team a couple weeks after a nightclub incident led to arrests. G Nick Foreman- Although not a regular, he would come off the bench and give the Yellow Jackets a spark on the defensive end for a few minutes every game. G Pierre Jordan- Another bench player who similarly would come in to give a quick boost of energy. Was best known for his ability to steal on the defensive end.
Returning: PG Mfon Udofia- Perhaps the most important player on the team not including Rice, Udofia is known for his quickness and passing. A good motor should come back as the team leader as a senior. F Kammeon Holsey- Can play either forward position and is athletically talented. Part of the group of Jackets that can jump out of the gym, needs to continuing improving as a rebounder. C Daniel Miller- Perhaps the best draft prospect on the team because of his size, Miller continues to be a work in progress. The seven footer has shown signs of developing post moves and blocking ability. He needs to continue to learn the game and become a force for this team. SF Jason Morris- Maybe the most athletic player on an athletic team, Morris is the best dunker in the conference. He can score in bunches but needs to expand his game and could become a shut down defender. SG Brandon Reed- The long-range threat remains inconsistent but has Jackets fans hoping for an Anthony Morrow result. A talented player needs to work on scoring from other places when his three point shot is not working. F Julian Royal- A big man needs to work on becoming more of a force. Could be a great rebounder with more work.
Adding: C Robert Carter- One of the best big men in a class dominated by centers, Carter has soft hands and good touch around the rim. SF Marcus Hunt- A good sized small forward is known for his athleticism. He could contend for minutes with the numerous other athletes on this roster. SG Chris Bolden- A good shooter who can score in a variety of ways should jump right in for the Yellow Jackets.
Bottom Line: The Jackets have the most upside out of the bottom teams in the conference, and if there talent comes together could make a splash. A good recruiting class only adds hope, and I see Georgia Tech trying to break into the top half of the league by the end of next season.
12. Clemson
Losing: PG Andre Young- The team leader in assists was also the vocal leader and leaves Clemson among the top five in scoring, assists and steals. His work ethic and leadership ability will be missed the most. SG Tanner Smith- The senior put on his best performances near the end of his career and helped rally the Tigers to a good finish of the season. A good shooter who plays hard. F Brian Narcisse- A high flyer who stepped away from most outside looks was considered a good defender and shot blocker.
Returning: F/C Devin Booker- Booker has to come back with the philosophy that this is his team. He has the strength to battle anyone and his post moves improved tremendously. More work on the defensive end and a better mid-range game could make him an NBA prospect. F Milton Jennings- The most talented player on the roster has the ability to shoot from the outside, make post moves, and block shots. Consistency and a better mental game are the biggest needs in order for him to be a star. C Catalin Baciu- A big man (7-2) did not get enough minutes because of his lack of endurance. An improved work ethic and he could come back as a starter and a solid shot blocker. PG KJ McDaniels- The freshman may have to step up more than anyone else on the team in order to replace Young. A quick first step gives him a great drive but a lack of vision hurt his assist totals. G/F Rod Hall- Showed a lot of promise early in the season but seemed to fade away as others stepped up. He’ll be put more in the spotlight next season and needs to continue improving this year. G TJ Sapp- Is going to be looked for in order to help replace Young and Smith, has the ability to be a big time player, just needs to realize his potential. G Devin Coleman- Another freshman guard got inconsistent playing time because of the plethora of guards on the team. Should get more minutes next season as a serious player for coach Brad Brownell.
Adding: PG Adonis Filer- Won’t be counted on to play too many minutes in year one but should gain more attention with his natural ability as his game matures. C Landry Nnoko- An athletic center needs to add a lot of weight but may be counted on early with a lack of bigs on the roster.
Bottom Line: Clemson loses its two top players and will need to do a quick turn around. Brownell institutes working hard but it might not be enough to get this team ready for an NCAA tournament appearance.
13. Boston College
Losing: PG John Cahill- The only player who will receive any notice for not being there next year is Cahill. A decent back up point guard with good eyes, he should be easily replaced.
Returning: PF Ryan Anderson- Maybe the best freshman not named Austin Rivers in the conference ended up being the team go-to-guy by the end of the season. A good rebounder with a smooth game, Anderson will have to continue getting better on the offensive end. G Matt Humphrey- A talented guard who can play both the point and as a wing was the leader for the Eagles. A decent long-range shooter, struggled when guarded by larger defenders. C Dennis Clifford- The seven footer may be the biggest key for this team next season. He needs to be able to assert himself better and continue to improve on his team leading 29 blocks. SG Patrick Heckmann- The German freshman struggled with injuries all season but showed his talent when he was playing. A good long-range shooter with decent rebounding abilities, Heckmann should settle in as team’s best long-range threat. G Lonnie Jackson- Another combo guard who did a little bit of everything for this team. When I say a “little”, I mean a little. Jackson needs to expand his game and be able to face off against opposing defenders better. PG Jordan Daniels- The most improved player on the roster settled into a starting point guard role by season’s end. An incredibly quick player, Daniels should be a good leader and distributer for this team next year. G Gabe Moton- Used a little less than the other players listed here, Moton is called in if the team needs a three. Moton should continue working on his shot and fade into this role.
Adding: PG Olivier Hanlan- Another quick point guard should be Daniels’ backup, and an adequate one at that.
Bottom Line: The Eagles suffered their worst season in recent memory this year. But it’s ok, because four of their top five players were freshman and Anderson has the capability to be really good. Expect an improvement, but it may be a couple years before they return to the upper echelon in the conference.
14. Wake Forest
Losing: F Nikita Mescheriakov- The senior leader of the team made sure his loss did not go unnoticed when his career’s best came out at the end of the season. A tall wing player who was forced to guard larger opponents never shied away. PG Tony Channault- The team’s leader in assists is transferring after never fitting in at Wake. He was a good talent but never showed off his full potential. He wants to be closer to his family in Philadelphia. C Ty Walker- The career of the big man ended poorly with a suspension for violating team rules. Main objective was rebounding but he never seemed totally team-oriented.
Returning: G CJ Harris: A big time scorer could play either guard position and finished with a 16.7 point per game mark. Improved defense needs to continue in the trend that it is going now and he needs to be utilized more as a shooting guard than as a point. F Travis McKie- Another big time scorer who was not quite sure of his role all year. Had the ability to put up 25 points but was never clear on whether he was a small or power forward. The best rebounder on the team needs help down low. SG Chase Fischer- A three point specialist who really struggled from deep the majority of the season. He should be placed into a starting role next year but needs to adapt his game in order to help both him and Harris succeed. C Carson Desrosiers- Maybe the most important player for the Deacons next year, Desrosiers can add stability inside. A big body who is a good rebounder, needs to stay in shape and be able to play 30 minutes a game.
Adding: PG Codi Miller-McIntyre- With the loss of Channault, he may be asked to do a lot from the start. Wake’s best recruit is tough with a good mid-range game but lacks pure speed. SF Arnaud Moto- The slasher has continued questions about his health. SF Aaron Rountree- The lengthy forward has the ability to run the floor and could free up space for shooters.
Bottom Line: Wake needs to turn it around, and fast. The ability to get Harris and McKie to become the ultimate superstars is there, they just need to find it. A system that gets the two of them the ball where they want has to be developed. It is a long shot, but if everyone comes back on the right page, they could dig out of the ACC cellar.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Time to Step Up: Who's Next in the ACC
Let’s take a look at the players who may have not had the biggest roles on their teams this year and are ready for the spotlight next season. This list is taking into account both players that are graduating and players that are possibly going to the NBA.
1. James Michael McAdoo, North Carolina- The freshman came on strong late in the season, culminating with a team high 15 points in the loss to Kansas. McAdoo has been high on almost all draft boards and is predicted as a top ten pick if he chooses to go. The thoughts of most outsiders are that he will stay, however. The loss of Tyler Zeller to graduation already opens up a starting spot for him, and if John Henson were to declare, McAdoo would become the focal point of Carolina’s inside game.
2. Ian Miller, Florida State- Miller has high hopes, and is listed as a first rounder on a lot of draft boards. If he were to return to Tallahassee, which it seems he will do, he will become the beginning and end of the Seminoles offense. He was second on the team at 11 points per game, but did it coming off the bench. A streaky outside shooter, Miller has the ability to create his own shots, and at 6-3, has the size to shoot over a lot of opposing point guards. The biggest need for improvement is his vision and passing ability. A shoot first, shoot second player, Miller needs to change his philosophy before next season.
3. Ryan Kelly, Duke- The Blue Devils are losing Miles Plumlee and possibly Mason Plumlee as well. That means there will be a humongous hole in the inside that needs to be filled. Duke redshirted younger brother Marshall Plumlee and 6-8 Alex Murphy this season. Both came in as highly touted recruits but will not be expected to step right into stardom. Kelly, who has the ability to stretch the floor unlike anyone in the conference, has to be the middleman here. Not only is he going to be counted on to defend other bigs, but also has to become a larger part of the offense.
4. Richard Howell, NC State- This is completely based on CJ Leslie deciding to go pro or not. With Leslie out, Howell will immediately become the main post player for NC State and will have to carry an extra burden, as the Wolfpack will not be deep inside. Howell’s main problem was his foul trouble, as he average a team high 3.4 fouls per game and fouled out of four key losses late in the season. No one doubts his abilities, however, as he averages near a double double a game (10.7 ppg, 9.3 rpg).
5. Jontel Evans, Virginia- Virginia is losing Mike Scott, yes, but they are also losing senior Sammy Zeglinski, perhaps their best outside threat and backup point guard. Evans was the starter at the point and has to expand his game. He proved numerous times that he is as quick, if not quicker, than anyone in the league when his drives seemed to be the focal point of the Cavaliers offense every time Scott was on the bench. Evans has a terrible outside shot, however, and although that probably will not improve tremendously, he needs to improve his vision for Virginia’s other outside shooters.
6. Pe’Shon Howard, Maryland- Howard proved he is the most valuable player on this Maryland team during his absence due to injury. ACC scoring champion Terrell Stoglin along with sensational freshman Nick Faust were thrust into the point guard position when Howard went down. Neither is a true point guard, and both struggled at times with this role. Those two, along with Alex Len and a crop of solid freshmen coming in, need someone to give them the ball. The weapons are there for Maryland, and Howard has a chance to become the top assist man in the conference.
7. Jason Morris, Georgia Tech- Perhaps the greatest leaper in the conference, Morris came on hot at the end of the season. His game seemed to take on a new level after the suspension of Glen Rice, Jr. and he proved himself on both end of the court. Morris is going to be counted on as not only the top swing player on this team, but along with Mfon Udofia, the leader of the offense. The sophomore needs to improve his shot and has the ability to become a shut down defender.
8. Cadarian Raines, Virginia Tech- Raines (6-9, 240) is maybe the only player on the Virginia Tech roster who has the size to battle other teams on the inside. He came on late, including averaging over 13 points and 6 boards during a three game stretch against top teams in February. Raines, and Dorian Finney-Smith, who prefers to play from the outside, will be the centerpieces at the big positions and may prove to be the key to the Hokies success.
9. Jordan Daniels, Boston College- The Eagles future centers on Ryan Anderson, the second best freshman in the conference this season. The team started four freshman, including Daniels, and their junior leader, Matt Humphrey. Daniels continued to improve as the season went along and is one of the quicker players in the conference. He is clearly a pass first player and with improvements to the rest of the roster he should be able to improve upon his 2.6 assists per game.
10. TJ Sapp, Clemson- Sapp had a mediocre year, with poor per game averages (3.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg). With the departures of Andre Young and Tanner Smith in the backcourt, Sapp is pushed into a starting role. The freshman showed his quickness and athleticism, but has failed to show off any scoring or passing prowess. He has quick hands (22 steals) and seems to fit coach Brad Brownell’s system of going hard every play, but a huge improvement is needed for the young fella to step in and be a leader of this team.
11. Trey McKinney Jones, Miami- The Hurricanes starting lineup was pretty set in stone by the end of the year and Jones may have been the first one left off of it. But with the departure of Malcolm Grant, Jones could be thrust into a starting role. The junior showed his ability score from outside or on the drive and had a big role on the boards for Miami as well. Jones gives Miami an option as a swing player and another player for freshman Shane Larkin to feed off of drives.
12. Chase Fischer, Wake Forest- Wake goes into the offseason with perhaps more questions than any team in the conference. Fischer could help answer those with a tremendous offseason. A shooting guard by nature, Fischer needs to work on his passing and defense and develop into a point guard. CJ Harris will be the starter and centerpiece for the offense from the two guard spot and Travis McKie is the only other definite part of this team, from his power forward position. Tony Chennault was most certainly going to be the starter at point guard for this team, but decided to transfer. Now Fischer, who showed his scoring ability against Miami and Boston College, has the ability to feed these players the ball, and start the offense for the Deacons.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Don't Blame Marshall, Carolina Just Ran Into It's Toughest Matchup
When North Carolina lost to Kansas this weekend there were immediate question for coach Roy Williams and the team about whether Kendall Marshall's injury was the reason for the defeat. Marshall had been repeatedly referred to as the most indispensable player on any team in the ACC, even the nation. After backup point guard and starting shooting guard Dexter Strickland went down Marshall was averaging near 35 minutes a game. Stillman White or senior Justin Watts running the point for about the other five minutes of the game supplanted his breathers. Neither were viable backups, White being a freshman who was given a scholarship because there was a last minute opening for one, nor Watts, being a do-everything veteran who was better suited as a defender. But when looking across the way at Kansas, one can see that it was the Jayhawks, rather than North Carolina injuries, that caused the Tar Heels to fall one game short of reaching the first final four since 2009.
Kansas' starting five is one of the best in the country. Not only that, they are arguably the most well rounded. Point guard Tyshawn Taylor is the senior leader of the team and had been applauded all year for his offensive ability. If Marshall had been in the game the two most certainly would have been matched up. Two things to argue here to prove that the Tar Heels’ point guard would not have made a difference: Marshall is not recognized for being a great defender, and a good on-the-ball defender is not the way to slow Marshall down. The sophomore has beaten the best defenders on opposite teams such as Duke’s Tyler Thornton, Virginia’s Jontel Evans, and Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor not off the dribble, but by passing up the court and starting a fast break before the opposing defense could set up. Granted White cannot do this as well as Marshall, but the freshman came in and dished out seven assists without a turnover in the loss to the Jayhawks. The Tar Heels, especially in the first half, were trying to push the tempo and play the same way they had all year. It worked, too, as Carolina put up 47 first half points and Tyler Zeller was getting his quick under the basket, fast-break layups while Harrison Barnes was heating up after receiving passes from White before the defense was set up to stop him.
The key to beating Carolina with Marshall was always to play better offensively. You saw it when Duke’s Austin Rivers scored 29 points on the Tar Heels, or when Florida State guard scorched them with eight threes. Taylor, more than any other point guard in the country, has the ability to score. Against Marshall, White, Watts, or any defender on the Carolina squad, he was ready to put up the 22 points he ended with. Running into guards that could put up big point totals had been an issue for Carolina all year long, and no matter what you were going to throw at him Taylor was ready to answer. Rivers may have been the closest thing to Taylor in the ACC in terms of scoring ability from the backcourt, but even he did not possess the maturity to score at will all the time.
The next matchup that hurt the Tar Heels was in the frontcourt. UNC had utilized their size inside all year to beat up teams and it was only vulnerable when matched up with teams that had size to match it. Losses to Kentucky and Florida State twice can be attributed to the fact that these teams had the length to matchup with Zeller and John Henson down low. Kansas’ front line seems to go unnoticed because they play in the same conference as Baylor, which has three lengthy big men that are ready for NBA stardom, and are player of the year candidate Thomas Robinson seems to have lost that distinction to Kentucky’s phenomenal freshman Anthony Davis. But the duo of Robinson and Big 12 defensive player of the year Jeff Withey are a low post tandem that needs to be recognized with the best. Both teams came out shooting lights out in the first half, and Robinson was no exception, scoring 14 of his 18 points in the opening sequence. Withey has the size, shot blocking ability, and toughness to matchup with ACC player of the year Zeller, something that the Carolina senior never saw in conference play. Zeller was held to 12 points and six rebounds, a line that looks impressive, but is not when speaking of the senior. Withey outplayed him, finishing with 15 points, eight boards, and three blocks.
Harrison Barnes seemed to be the key though. The media has attacked the sophomore since the game for not stepping up. He came in as the top recruit and many thought he was the best prep player since Lebron James, giving him a reputation that would have only be fulfilled if he had been an All-American. But Barnes, who came into the halftime break scorching hot, was shut down in the second half by Travis Releford, Kansas’ best perimeter defender, and finished with 13 points. Barnes has been criticized impeccably for the past couple months for not stepping up, a player with so much talent is disappointing if he could not step in as the power forward in Henson’s ACC tournament absence or be the leader with the ball in Marshall’s absence. But Barnes, who continues to live as a wing player who does best when pulling up for a mid-range jumper, was shut down by Releford, who has done the same job with Missouri’s Marcus Denmon, Georgetown’s Jason Clarke, and Texas A&M’s Kris Middleton.
All in all, these matchups are where North Carolina has hurt opposing teams in the past and have been hurt when teams have the firepower to combat their attack. Give credit to Jayhawks’ coach Bill Self for implementing the triangle and two defense that may have confused White and UNC’s offense, but it was more about the matchups that gave the Tar Heels trouble than the set zones. Roy Williams mentioned this in the press conference after the game, saying “they may have used the triangle and two a play or two” but clearly that was not what he thought lost them the game. So whether Marshall, who may have added a few more assists and some scoring to the mix, was in or not, I think this game came down more to Kansas’ ability to use their strengths to combat Carolina’s strengths in a way that the Tar Heels have only seen in their losses this year.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Recapping Florida State's Season: A Disappointing, Good Season
Florida State was an interesting case all season, to say the least. The Seminoles had one of the most experienced teams (six seniors) and one of the most talented, especially defensively, teams in the country. All that wound up in a number three seed in the ACC tournament, a 12-4 record in conference, a school-first ACC tournament title, and a number three seed in the NCAA tournament. Coach Leonard Hamilton was named ACC coach of the year and both Bernard James and Michael Snaer were named to the All-ACC defensive team. All in all it was more than a successful season for the ‘Noles, but it was not necessarily smooth sailing the whole way.
November: Grade B-. The result in November that sticks out most when looking at Florida State’s results is the five-point loss to Harvard. The Seminoles caught a lot of flack for the loss and the question later in the year that was constantly brought up is how this team could have lost a game like that to an Ivy League school. You have to take into account, however, that Harvard was not their worst loss. They would go on to have two worse losses against ACC foes. Either way, November was unstable for the Seminoles. They were not ranked in the preseason polls but gathered some votes for honorable mention and were picked to finish third in the conference. After a win over Jacksonville they slid into the rankings and continued by winning four straight after that. They ventured to the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas as the 20th best team in the country and dismantled Massachusetts. Flying high, the Seminoles were beat at their own game by the Crimson, 46-41. Then they lost an overtime thriller to then-number-four Connecticut to finish the tournament. A trip to Michigan State was not what they needed to ease the pain and suddenly they were on a three game losing streak. Record after November: 5-3, Unranked.
December: C. Much like other teams, Florida State only played five games in the month of December but it was not pretty. Coming into the month reeling and tired after playing four games in seven days, the Seminoles were able to get rid of some anger against a decent-at-best Charleston Southern team and then were really quite unimpressive in a win over UNC-Greensboro, who was in the midst of a nine game losing streak. At this point it looked as though FSU had the athletic ability and defensive prowess to play with anyone but they just kept coming out sluggish. The month ended with a loss at rival Florida and then a triple overtime loss to another Ivy, Princeton. Suddenly, something was very wrong with this team. They only put up ten points, at home, to Princeton. Princeton? At home? Record after December: 8-5, Unranked.
January: A-. The game against Princeton seemed to strike the ‘Noles the wrong way. Or did it? The New Year started with a romp over Auburn, a team from a power-six conference. But then, a twenty point loss to Clemson. Michael Snaer, their leader, was not scoring. Bernard James was grabbing rebounds but not doing anything offensively. They had no role players besides Ian Miller who could not do much more than score. Then Hamilton earned his stripes. Something he said pumped his team up. This same team that had lost to two Ivys and Clemson came back a week later and gave third ranked North Carolina the whooping of a lifetime. UNC coach Roy Williams’ worst defeat came on January 14th in Tallahassee, when the ‘Noles won by 33. Devydas Dulkys was finally another role player (although he would remain somewhat quiet the rest of the year). James and Snaer were looking like all-conference performers, the bench went six deep, led by Miller and Okaro White, both good choices for the best sixth man in the conference. If that was not enough, the team rolled into Durham, Snaer hit a buzzer beater, and they put an end to Duke’s 45-game home winning streak. Talk about a hot team, the Noles ended the month at 14-6 but were the best team in the conference. Record after January: 14-6, 4-1 ACC. Ranked 24 ESPN/21 AP.
February: B. Going into February it was a safe pick to say that Florida State was one of the most dangerous teams in the country. They furthered that by beating Virginia at home in what I consider to be the best defensive game all season. But then came their actual worst loss of the season. Yes, Boston College, a lower ranked team in the RPI than Harvard or Princeton, got their best win of the season. An impressive win against a soaring Miami team after that seemed to get them back on track, but they looked very shaky in a win over Virginia Tech. At home, the ‘Noles were down by 8 with a minute and a half left. The Hokies missed their free throws and Florida State, which was having its worst shooting night of the conference season, started hitting everything. “The basketball gods just smiled on us in this one,” Hamilton said afterwards. Snaer hit a three with 2.6 seconds left and the Seminoles escaped with a one point win. A dismantling of NC State was followed by a rematch with Duke in Tallahassee. The crowd, which appeared to be more excited than ever before, was disappointed as the Devils righted the ship. A second straight loss was handed down in Miami, and suddenly Florida State looked shaky again. Record after February: 19-9, 10-4 ACC. Ranked 21 ESPN/21 AP.
March: A-. March for the Seminoles started off incredibly strong. A win at Virginia disappointed the Cavalier seniors but James getting thrown out for kicking Virginia guard Joe Harris tainted the victory. James had been applauded for his maturity all year after spending time serving in the Air Force. “Bernard James- you are better than that,” ESPN analyst Jay Williams would go on to say. But the ‘Noles continued and after finishing the ACC season in third place got rematches with Miami and then Duke in the ACC tournament. They won both and took the season series from both clubs. Now they had North Carolina in the final. The Tar Heels had looked sharp since getting destroyed in Tallahassee and wanted revenge. Not to be had, the ‘Noles beat the fourth ranked Heels and secured their first ever ACC championship. Snaer was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player and was turning into a household name. The Seminoles received a three seed for the Big Dance and were paired up with St. Bonaventure’s, who was coming in hot off of a win in the Atlantic Ten tournament. Florida State was down most of the game but went on a 16-2 run to beat the Bonnies and move on. A popular pick for a lot of people to make a run to the final four, the Seminoles lost their second round matchup to a surging Cincinnati team. The game was close throughout but Cincinnati pulled away at the end and a senior-laden group watched their dreams fade away.
Next year: Michael Snaer (Jr., Florida State’s leader and a second team all-conference, Snaer will return as one of the favorites to be player of the year in the conference), Ian Miller (So., a true scorer, NBA scouts like Miller’s ability to shoot and put the ball on the floor as a point guard or shooting guard)*, Okaro White (So., long and athletic big man will carry a big burden of replace James and Xavier Gibson), Terrance Shannon (Jr., out for a season ending injury in December, averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds in only seven games. Big man may try for a redshirt), Terry Whisnant (Fr., streaky freshman showed he can score at times, should get more playing time after being behind Miller and Snaer, along with Dulkys and Loucks).
*Pending NBA draft early entry
Incoming Class:
Montay Brandon: 6-4, 180 pound shooting guard. ESPN grade: 95, Scout.com 4 stars- “Brandon, a 6-foot-5 guard that can play anywhere from the wing to the lead guard spot, is an interesting prospect. He spent a lot of time playing on the ball during his final season of summer ball and as a bigger guard he can be effective as a passer and scorer. He's also a high level athlete with a tremendous upside because of his versatility and length. Brandon excels in an up-tempo environment where he can get out on the break.”
Aaron Thomas: 6-5, 195 pound shooting guard. ESPN grade: UR, 4 stars, Scout.com 4 stars- “Thomas is on the right track. Considered mostly a good mid-major prospect as a junior, Thomas simply blew up over the spring and summer. He is one of the best scorers in the class and has big time athleticism. When he is hot, his size and high release allow him to get shots off and put up big numbers. Though it has come a long way his ball handling needs some work. Also defensively he shows very little interest at times.”
Devon Bookert: 6-2, 180 pound point guard. ESPN grade: UR, 3 stars, Scout.com NR.
Robert Gilchrist: 6-9, 210 pound power forward. ESPN grade: UR, Scout.com JC. Junior College transfer.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Recapping Duke's Season: The Epitome of "Up-and-Down"
Duke had the most disappointing performance they have had under Mike Krzyzewski when they lost by five to 15th seeded Lehigh. The Blue Devils have had worse season under Coach K, but it is hard to argue that there has ever been a worse performance when the Blue Devils made the tournament. Duke had been booted only twice before under Krzyzewski; in 1996 they lost to Eastern Michigan after gaining an eight seed in the first year the coach was back after surgery, and in 2007, when the 22-11 Devils were thought of as one of the weaker teams in recent memory, and lost to eleventh seeded Virginia Commonwealth as a six seed. But never has a Duke team gotten into the tournament and had a more disappointing season. That is not to say everything went wrong all year for the Dukies…
November: Grade A-. Duke came in as the preseason number two team in the ACC and number six in the country. But the main story of the first month of the year was around Krzyzewski, who entered the year with 900 wins, with the ability to pass his mentor, Bob Knight, for the most coaching wins in Division I men’s basketball history after just three games. With all that surrounding the team, along with a sense of doubt that the team would be relying to heavily on highly touted freshman Austin Rivers, the Devils came out a bit flat. Their first game was a one point victory over Belmont (who ended up being a more impressive team than most though). The response was perfect though. A blowout win of Presbyterian and a five point victory over future-one-seed Michigan State gave Coach K his record 903rd win. The Devils were not done there, though. They went to the Maui Invitational where they beat a decent Tennessee team, top fifteen team in Michigan, and Sweet Sixteen team Kansas to take the preseason tournament. The Blue Devils were rolling high, getting up to number four in the country. But there last game of the month is what makes that grade an A instead of an A-. Duke lost at Ohio State by 22 in the ACC-Big Ten team and looked worse. Suddenly, all the critics were reminded of why they doubted this Duke team. Record after November: 7-1, Ranked 4 in ESPN/3 in AP.
December: Grade A. The Blue Devils get an A here, but it comes with stipulations. Their best win was against NCAA tournament team Colorado State, which they beat by 23 at home. But the Devils played just four games, and the only other one of note was a six point win against Washington in New York. This month was when Rivers began to emerge, scoring no less than 14 points in any game, and the Devils were clearly looking to him early and often. Record after December: 12-1, Ranked 5 in ESPN/7 in AP.
January: Grade B. January is where everyone began to see what this Duke team was going to be all about: inconsistency. The month started with a blowout of Penn, but was followed up by a fluke loss at Temple, in which they could not stop the hot shooting Owls. The Devils had hit their highest ranking of the season at number three, but quickly dropped them three spots. A win over Virginia was nice for Duke fans, but in all honesty they could not beat the good defense of the Cavaliers and could not stop Mike Scott, the two things Coach K has always instituted into Duke teams. Then the biggest stunner came; Florida State came into Durham and ended the 45 game win streak for the Devils at Cameron. The last five minutes were a perfect representation of Duke’s season: Rivers drove to the rim and made a beautiful play to tie the game, but then everyone seemed to stare while Seminole guard Luke Loucks dribbled past everyone and found an open Michael Snaer, who hit the buzzer beating three. The Devils ended the month with two wins but the victory over St. John’s was described by Krzyzewski as “a loss today for me”. He continued, "I didn't like today. And if my team doesn't like today, then we'll get better. If my team is OK about today, then we're going to fight a little bit, because I'm not going to change on this." One has to wonder where the team mentality actually went from there. Record after January: 19-3, 6-1 ACC, Ranked 5 in ESPN/7 in AP.
February: Grade A-. February was surprisingly successful for a Duke team that lost its second game at home and had to go to overtime to beat lowly Virginia Tech to avoid their third. But the Blue Devils completed their improbable run to an 8-0 record on the road in the ACC. The month began by beating the Hokies in Blacksburg, a welcome response to the above quote from Krzyzewski. But then the weirdest of weird’s, a home loss to Miami? Duke looked dead when getting down by 14 at the half but worked their way back behind Rivers and Seth Curry, who were clearly the two best playmakers on the team. The game went to overtime and weird again, the Devils missed all six free throws in the extra time. Then they were traveling to Chapel Hill. This could not be good; visiting your archrival after falling to a weaker team and the Tar Heels are starting to feel like they deserve to be in the conversation or best team in the country. But then Rivers put his name in Duke-UNC lore forever by beating the Heels with a buzzer beating three. Maybe “The Shot” will go down as a top five moment in this storied rivalry, but perhaps it should be mentioned that this began a seven game winning streak. The streak included a comeback win over NC State, a redemption victory at Florida State, and iffy wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The month ended with Duke feeling like the top team in the conference and a very possible number one seed in the NCAA tournament. Senior Miles Plumlee was playing his best basketball, having set a single game record for any player during the Coach K era with 23 in the Maryland game, Rivers was now a lock for freshman of the year, and Curry had become a top scorer in the conference. Record after February: 26-4, 13-2 ACC, Ranked 3 in ESPN/4 in AP.
March: Grade D-. Something stopped clicking all of the sudden. Sure those last two wins against the Hokies and Deacons were not great but they were still wins. The first game was a domination for the Tar Heels in a rematch and seemingly took away Duke’s bid for a number one seed. The Blue Devils fell two a two seed in the ACC tournament and drew Virginia Tech once again. They beat the Hokies but looked super flat on offense, winning 60-56. Then they continued their struggles on the offensive end as eventual ACC champ Florida State won by three in the semifinals. So Duke was all of the sudden entering the Big Dance having lost two of three. While all analysts were writing off Duke to make a serious move in the tournament, they expected them to get past Lehigh. Not to be had. The Mountain Hawks seemed to outplay the Devils throughout, and Lehigh’s best player CJ McCollum could not be stopped, just not Krzyzewski’s normal prerogative.
Next year: Austin Rivers* (Fr., the guard was the most talented player on the roster and became a first team all-conference player. All-American potential could add more strength before declaring for the NBA), Seth Curry (Jr., no one doubts his outside shot, but proved his ability to score from anywhere by the end of the season. Defense is an issue), Mason Plumlee*(Jr., team’s best post player average 11 points and 9 rebounds and remained solid through tough late season times. Would be a late first round pick if he left), Ryan Kelly (Jr., injured at the end of the season, ability to stretch defense with his outside shooting and his length(6-11). Will be a constant for this team next year), Andre Dawkins (Jr., the ultimate in terms of inconsistency. Beautiful stroke but goes night’s without scoring. Certainly expanding his game and improving defense will be focal point of offseason), Quinn Cook (Fr., showed great promise as both a defender and passer. Takes good care of the ball and reminds Duke fans of a young Chris Duhon), Tyler Thornton (So., Duke’s best perimeter defender may have improved more than anyone else on roster. Constantly put on other team’s best player, needs to work on shot and offensive point guard responsibilities), Josh Hairston (So., another solid improvement, big body that reminds some fans of Lance Thomas) Michael Gbinije (Fr., wing player was oddly used very sparingly, promising athlete with length), Marshall Plumlee (Fr., redshirt, described as having the best post moves on the team but needs to add muscle), Alex Murphy (Fr., another big body who also has the ability to shoot from the outside. Also redshirted.)
*Pending NBA entry
Incoming Class:
Rasheed Sulaimon- 6-3, 175 pound shooting guard. ESPN grade: 97, Scout.com 5 stars- One of the better pure scorers in the 2012 class, Sulaimon has put up huge numbers on the AAU circuit running with the Houston Hoops. Sulaimon has a quick trigger and range that extends past the three-point stripe. There are still areas for improvement like his ball handling and his strength, but he's one of the best guards the class has to offer.
Recapping Virginia's Season: Poor, poor Mike Scott
Virginia fell hard in the opening round of the NCAA tournament to Florida on Friday and capped off a harsh ending to a once promising season. The Cavaliers were not only led, but completely dictated by the play of Mike Scott. There could be an argument made that no other player in the conference could have led this team to a number four final seed in the conference and a birth in the Big Dance. But it was not all gravy for Virginia, and here's a month by month recap:
November- Grade: B+. Virginia was preseason number four in the conference and came out hot, scorching lowly South Carolina State and Winthrop. Then, they traveled to St. Thomas for the "Paradise Jam" and things got a little iffy. They had one of their worst losses of the year to TCU, but they rebounded by beating a good Drexel team and finishing off Drake in the fourth-place game of the preseason tourney. Virginia returned home and beat coach Tony Bennett's old school, Green Bay, and then got perhaps their most impressive victory of the season by beating Michigan in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Record after November: 6-1, Unranked.
December- Grade: A. The Cavaliers were riding high after their win over Michigan. They had realized that the Wolverines were more than likely the best non-conference opponent they were going to face and beating them would go a long ways towards their RPI ranking. In December the Wahoos would go 6-0 with a successful cross country trip to Oregon and Seattle. The win over the Ducks in Eugene was the best win of the month but a 20 point whooping of George Mason at home looked good too. Scott was coming into his own during December until the win over then-winless Towson where he was held to just 7 points. Record after December: 12-1, Ranked 23 in ESPN/21 in AP.
January- Grade: B. This is where things began to become inconsistent for Virginia. They opened the new year with an impressive win over a solid LSU team and an impressive home victory over Miami. They looked good in losing by only three to Duke in Durham, but that's when everyone started talking about how the then-number-seventeen Cavaliers needed someone else besides Scott. The all-conference senior had 23 points and 9 rebounds and while Joe Harris had 14 points two starters did not score. "Basically, he was responsible for 60 percent of their offense in the first half," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "When a man does that in this type of game, he's a hell of a player." The rest of January was up and down with mostly the right results. They crushed lowly Georgia Tech on the road but came back and were surprised by Virginia Tech at home. They blew out Boston College before beating an eventual Sweet Sixteen team in NC State on their home floor. They continued by beating a decent Clemson team in a fashion that did not please Bennett. The Cavaliers, who were still ranked number 17 going into the game with the Hokies, began to look the part of a lower seed after the blemish on their home court and took a big hit from the media after that. The win at NC State was needed to quickly bring back their respectability. Record after January: 18-4, 5-3 ACC. Ranked 18 ESPN/16 AP.
February- Grade: C+. The Cavaliers went 3-4 during February but did not have a bad loss besides one to Clemson, who they had already defeated. It was not a good month in Charlottesville though, and any thoughts of Bennett being named conference (or even national) coach of the year or Scott being named conference player of the year were quickly vanishing. Virginia's other three losses of the month were at Florida State and to North Carolina twice. The matchup with Florida State was one of the most entertaining games of the season, especially from a defensive standpoint but the three point loss was just the beginning of a series of tough luck games for the Wahoos. "We got sped up and rattled in a stretch there where if you want to be successful in a game like this, you can't turn it away," Bennett said after the game, "We've got to clean up some of these turnovers and be more efficient to play against a team like this because baskets aren't easy to come by." The message never seemed to fully get across as the team lost a week later by 18 in Chapel Hill and three days after that by 12 at Clemson. The Cavaliers had a decent week after that by beating rivals Maryland and righting the ship against Virginia Tech but then fell to North Carolina after doing everything right and holding the Tar Heels to a season low 51 points. The Cavaliers were clearly confused after that game as their style of play still just was not winning the games for them. Record after February: 21-7, 8-6 ACC. Ranked 24 in AP.
March- Grade: C. The Cavaliers opened the final month of the season by losing by three to Florida State in the home finale. They left of Florida State's third buzzer beater of the season and Scott, who was clearly hurting after his, guard Sammy Zeglinski, and injured forward Assane Sene's senior night, put it perfectly by saying, "That was our last chance to play one of the top teams in the ACC. That was our last chance to beat one of the best teams. We had it, but we gave it away." Virginia, who now had injuries to both Sene and freshman Malcolm Brogdon, bounced back by beating a charged up Maryland team on their senior night, but had to go to overtime to do it. They finished the season by losing by three to an upstart NC State club in the ACC quarterfinals and getting dominated by Florida in the first round of the Big Dance. Scott scored 15 points in the finale and had his most impressive offensive performance in the Maryland game, scoring a career high 35. But it was not about that for him. Scott teared up after the final defeat because he knew how much farther this team could have gone. Final record: 22-10, 9-7 ACC. Second round, NCAA Tournament.
Next year: Joe Harris (So., 6-6 swingman who played anywhere from shooting guard to power forward. Top returning scorer at 11.3 points per game), Jontel Evans (Jr., one of the quickest players in the country, struggle shooting outside. First team all-defensive, former football player, has ability and strength to guard taller opponents. Led team with 3.9 assists and 1.6 steals per game), Malcolm Brogdon (Fr., injured his ankle late in the season and put a major dent in Virginia's offense. Top player off the bench averaged 6.7 ppg and 2.8 rpg), Akil Mitchell (So., listed at 6-8 but played bigger opponents all year. Long arms, sure to work with Bennett to improve shot blocking ability and come back as a defensive minded center), Darion Atkins (Fr., came in with similar style and mindset as Mitchell. At 6-8 and only 220 pounds, sure to add on weight and become a two-headed defensive monster on inside with Mitchell), Paul Jesperson (Fr., showed some promise and had to give up redshirt year after all the injuries. Clearly was not ready for college game but gained good experience and should learn under Harris.)
Incoming class: Evan Nolte- 6-7, 190 pound small forward. ESPN grade: 94, Scout.com 4 stars- "Nolte is one of the best shooters in the class. A big wing with length and a quick release, he is excellent in pick and pop situations. He does need to get better laterally on the defensive end, and isn't a super athlete, but his size and shooting ability makes him a nightmare to defend."
Justin Anderson- 6-5, 210 pounds small forward. ESPN grade: 94, Scout.com 4 stars- "At 6-foot-6, Anderson, a wing out of Virginia, is an elite level athlete that has molded himself into a terrific defender. He moves well laterally, has the strength to take contact and is a presence on the defensive end. He also make his mark rebounding the basketball and corralling put backs. He still needs to develop his offense, as well as his outside shot, but he has a lot of raw talent."
Mike Tobey- 6-11, 210 pound center. ESPN grade: 92, Scout.com 4 stars- "Right now Tobey is more about what he will be rather than what he is, but at 7-feet tall, very few players run the floor like him. He is a good shot blocker and someone who can also hit a mid-range jumper. Now Tobey needs to get stronger and have a better feel for how to score on the block, but the upside is there once he gets into a college weight program."
Teven Jones- 6-0, 180 pound point guard. ESPN grade: unranked, Scout.com 3 stars- no biography available.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
10 Key Players in the Big Dance
Scott Wood, NC State- Simply put, if Wood shoots well and scores, the Pack win. If he is missing his threes and not scoring, they lose. In the last nine games, NC State is 4-5. In the four wins Wood is averaging 5.2 points while shooting 5-34 from the field including 4-20 from deep. In the four wins, Wood is averaging 16 points while shooting 19-40 total and 15-32 from three.
Mike Scott, Virginia- Scott is one of only two players on Virginia that scores in double figures and he also is the only Cavalier averaging over 4.5 rebounds per game. After Assane Sene went down with an ankle injury, Scott, at 237 pounds, was the biggest player on the court for the Wahoos. Going against Florida's talented frontcourt of Erik Murphy and Patric Young, Scott's renowned defense will be tested.
Tyler Thornton, Duke- Thornton is far and away the best outside defender for the Blue Devils. They are going to need him, as he should get Lehigh's CJ McCollum (21.9 ppg) in the second round and then a potential of either Xavier's Tu Holloway (17.0 ppg) or Notre Dame's Jerian Grant (12.3 ppg). Basically, the opposing team's point guard, or maybe their shooting guard, or maybe their 6-8 wing man (see Harrison Barnes).
James Michael McAdoo, North Carolina- Carolina will be heavily favored over Vermont when the two meet tomorrow afternoon, but their is still some uncertainty as to whether John Henson will be 100%. McAdoo got his first two career starts in ACC tournament games against NC State (9 pts, 2 rebs, 4 fouls) and Florida State (4 pts, 8 rebs, 1 foul). It was clear that coach Roy Williams talked to McAdoo about his foul trouble, but he seemed reserved offensively in the championship loss to the Seminoles.
Okaro White, Florida State- White came up huge in the ACC tournament semifinal win over Duke (9 pts, 7 rebs) and has shown signs of brilliance on both ends of the court. Bernard James is no slouch and should be able to handle his business but starting center Xavier Gibson has been up and down recently. The sophomore White is, along with Jon Kreft, the first bigger guy off the bench and his output is essential for the Seminoles.
CJ Leslie, NC State- You could argue that Leslie had the most impressive February out of any ACC player and he is coming off 4 double-doubles in the last 5 games. Along with Lorenzo Brown, Leslie has asserted himself as the most important offensive player on this Wolfpack team. He went down early with his fifth foul in the semifinal loss againt North Carolina and although the Pack kept the game close, you could tell they missed him down low.
Joe Harris, Virginia- Harris is Virginia's second leading scorer and best shooter. He had a left wrist injury (non-shooting hand) in mid-February and you can tell it has affected his shot (33.8% field goals since February 1st) and his ballhandling (career-high 5 turnovers in season ending loss to Florida State). He is the second option for this team, and can cause a matchup nightmare (6-6, 210) for opposing guards or big men.
Austin Rivers, Duke- Rivers became the first freshman selected to the All-ACC team since Tyler Hansbrough in 2006. There was a reason for that. Rivers is the first freshman to lead Duke in scoring (15.4 ppg) since Johnny Dawkins in 1983 and the guard could rival Leslie for the best February out of anyone in the conference. He has the power to breakdown any player in the country and Duke's offense goes as he goes.
Kendall Marshall, North Carolina- Plain and simple, Marshall was North Carolina's most important player. Clearly his importance is seen through his record setting assist total, but he is also the only viable option for UNC at point guard since Dexter Strickland went down with an ACL tear. Marshall is set to match up against teams with much lesser point guards, and one's he could potentially break down.
Michael Snaer, Florida State- The Most Outstanding Player of the ACC tournament has evolved into the leader and best player for the Seminoles. He leads the team in scoring and coach Leonard Hamilton has called him the "best perimeter defender in the ACC...by far". Snaer makes this team go, hits the clutch shots, and sets the tone on both ends of the floor.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
ACC Matchups: The Players
Vermont won its play-in game Wednesday night and now all the matchups for the ACC are set up. Here are how the players for each team look:
Monday, March 12, 2012
Are Any of the ACC Teams Making a Deep Run?
The brackets have been released and five ACC teams made the Big Dance. North Carolina was the third overall number 1 seed and has to travel to Saint Louis if it made it to the regional semifinals. Duke was thought to have a chance at a one seed but their loss to Florida State in the ACC semifinals dropped them to a two seed in the South Region. Florida State moved into a third seed after their ACC championship and is set up in the East Region. Virginia dropped down to a ten seed after many thought they could have gone as a high as four back in the beginning of February. They play in the West Region. NC State snuck in as an 11 seed in the Midwest Region after an impressive ACC tournament. Miami is the first team out for the ACC. Here is a look at each team's path to success in the tournament:
1. North Carolina: North Carolina, as expected, gets its first two games in Greensboro. This is about as close to a home court advantage out of any team in the tournament. They play the winner of Vermont and Lamar, two teams that won their conference tournaments to get an at-large bid. While Carolina will be heavily favored over either team, both have under-the-radar personalities. Vermont is led by by do-everything Brian Voelkel and freshman all-namer Four McGlynn. Lamar got publicity when coach Pat Knight (son of the great Bob Knight) called out his seniors two weeks ago. Since, Lamar has not lost and won their tournament with a 21 point romp of McNeese State. If Carolina wins they play either Creighton or Alabama. Both of these teams could have arguable been seeded higher, but for different reasons. Creighton ended their season 28-5 and besides a sloppy three game losing streak looked strong all year. All-American Doug McDermott is the leader of this team, and is very familiar with Carolina's Harrison Barnes, as the two played together in high school. Alabama comes in with a top 20 strength of schedule and finished fifth in the SEC. The knock against them is that they only have three wins over tournament teams, the best being over Wichita State in November. The top seeds in UNC's region are Michigan, Kansas, and Georgetown. While the Jayhawks are probably the toughest matchup of the group, it's hard to name anyone that player-of-the-year candidate Thomas Robinson has matched up with that plays better defense than John Henson or Tyler Zeller. Carolina has shown problems matching up against teams that can knock down threes, which is Michigan's specialty. But a lack of size for the Wolverines may end up a bigger problem. Georgetown has the ability to be really good or really bad. Jason Clark is a superb wing player and Henry Sims has come into his own as a center. Catch the Hoyas on a good day, and they could beat UNC. Catch them on a bad day and Carolina could beat them by 20.
2. Duke: The Blue Devils opening round matchup is against the Patriot League Champion Lehigh Mountain Hawks. Lehigh has now won eight in a row, counting their victory over Regular Season Champion Bucknell on Wednesday. The Mountain Hawks feature in offense surrounding junior guard CJ McCollum, who leads the team with 21.9 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. The team is offensive minded, averaging 76.2 points per game and have an interior presence in Gabe Knutson. It is still hard to see the 26-7 Mountain Hawks defeating mighty Duke, especially with a healthy Ryan Kelly to stretch a suspect defense. If Duke wins they face either Notre Dame or Xavier, two teams that have gone in different directions this year. The Irish were not favored to do much this season after losing all-Big East big man Tim Abromaitis. But a strong February led them to a number three seed in the Big East tournament, where they were ousted by eventual champion Louisville. Xavier was a top ten team that featured all-American candidate Tu Holloway until they slipped off a bit after the notorious brawl with Cincinnati in December. The top seeds in the South Region include Kentucky, Indiana, and Baylor. The Blue Devils would face off against Baylor in the Sweet Sixteen, a team that has size to match anyone in the country but has been beaten by teams with excellent guard play, something Duke possesses. Indiana and Kentucky would be a rematch of Kentucky's only regular season loss in the other Sweet Sixteen matchup. Kentucky is the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing and the number overall seed. Indiana is a young and talented team that has weapons at every position.
3. Florida State- I like Florida State to make a better run at the final four than any other team in the conference. Experience is necessary for a big tournament run, as is size. These are the two attributes you first think of with a deep Seminole team that is rolling at the right time. They start off with a matchup against Atlantic 10 tournament champion St. Bonaventure's in the 3-14 game. The Bonnies stole a bubble team's spot and surprised most by winning the A-10. But Florida State is too hot right now to be slowed down by an average offensive team like the Bonnies. Their second round matchup will be interesting. They get the winner of Cincinnati and Texas. Cincy may be a bit overrated in my opinion, and probably moved way up in the seeding with a strong Big East tournament. But they were slowed by a good defensive team in Louisville in the championship and the Seminoles are even stronger than the Cardinals on that end of the floor. Texas was a bubble team till the very end of the season but possess one of the nation's elite scorers in J'Covan Brown. ACC Tournament MVP Michael Snaer will probably get that individual matchup and there is nothing that tells me that Snaer, who may be the hottest player in the country right now, would not win that battle. The other top seeds in the East Region are Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Syracuse has a tough draw to reach the elite eight, as a potential second round matchup with a fiery Kansas State team looms. Wisconsin can shoot the three and stretch defenses with the best of them, and that is exactly what you need to beat Syracuse's patented 2-3 zone. However, a first and second draw includes Vanderbilt, Harvard, and Montana, perhaps the most competitive draw of the first two round anywhere in the bracket. Ohio State, I believe, has the power and talent to win the whole thing. If they play the way they did against Duke back in December they beat anyone in the country. But Jared Sullinger, Aaron Craft, William Buford and the gang are inconsistent and have appeared vulnerable on both ends of the court before.
10. Virginia- The Cavaliers open with one of the opening rounds most enticing matchups. They drew the Florida Gators, who have been a top 25 team all year long but have lost 4 of 5. The Cavaliers have lost 3 of 4 themselves, including a heartbreaking defeat to NC State in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. The Gators possess talent, and a lot of NBA level caliber at that. Irving Walker is small but makes plays while Kenny Boynton adds athletic ability and a good shot to the backcourt. Brad Beal is thought by many to be a top ten pick in this year's draft and is joined in the frontcourt by big man Patric Young, who is one of the best inside talent's in the country. None of them, though, have had as much of an impact on this season as Mike Scott. The power forward is having an all-American type of year and the Cavs defense is one of a few that could slow Florid'a high powered attack. If Virginia were to win, they would more than likely play second seeded Missouri in the second round. The Tigers feature a four guard lineup that can score and run with anyone. Virginia's backcourt would be challenged in this one but Missouri would struggle to find an answer for Scott. Unfortunately for the Cavs, I don't think they will win going basket for basket with Mizzou.
11. NC State: The Wolfpack were the last team announced on the CBS broadcast of the unveiling of the brackets, so had to hold their breath. They were not, however, the last team in, and proved to the committee they belonged with a strong ACC tournament performance. Their reward: San Diego State, the regular season champions in the strong Mountain West conference. The Aztecs were supposed to be having a rebuilding year but, led by sophomore guard Jamaal Franklin, have another good seed. This is a matchup that the more experience Wolfpack team could win, however, and a good matchup to watch will be CJ Leslie and the Aztecs' Deshawn Stephens. Stephens is defense first but Leslie is playing the best basketball of his career. If State were to win they would get the winner of Georgetown and Belmont. A lot of people are looking for an upset out of Belmont, and while they are a strong mid-major I don't see it happening. Georgetown is too strong at every position and has senior leadership. This might also spell doom if the Wolfpack get the Hoyas in the second round. Henry Sims is playing great basketball in the middle and has done a good job of getting opposing centers into foul trouble, something that has plagued the Wolfpack all year. Like Virginia, I am going to steer clear of anymore what-ifs with the Wolfpack.
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