http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jawliw9ZphU
Mason Plumlee announced via twitter today that he was excited to return for his senior season at Duke and became the latest ACC player to announce one way or the other. While this is the time for players to either get ready to come back and represent their school for another season or prepare for the draft, it is also time to look at mock drafts and see where they are likely to be selected. So, I’ve decided to look into several different mock drafts and discuss whether I agree with the experts or not on those who are definitely going to be in the pool in June. (Remember that the NBA draft is based on a ping pong ball selection where the worst team in the league gets 25 of 100 balls, the second worst gets 17 out of 100, etc… so when you see Portland listed as drafting 5 in one mock draft and 7 in the other it is because of this.)
Harrison Barnes, 6’8”, 223, SF, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 5, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 7, Portland
Walter Football: No. 8, Cleveland
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 6, Toronto
Me: No. 6, Toronto. Barnes may have actually moved up because of James Michael McAdoo’s decision to return for his sophomore season at UNC just because the top ten in this year’s draft (besides Anthony Davis) does not boast many game-changers and McAdoo may have been the one with the most upside. The Raptors are a team that boasts futures at the center (Andrea Bargnani), shooting guard (DeMar DeRozan), and point guard (Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless) positions. They need some help at the forward positions, however. James Johnson, a second year player out of Wake Forest, has gotten most of their starts, but has not progressed as quickly as Raptor fans might like. Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may be the only small forward that is going to be drafted earlier this year than Barnes. In terms of the other predicted locations for Barnes, I do not see Portland as a great fit because both Nicolas Batum and Gerald Wallace are solid small forwards. Cleveland could work, but they also have a better chance of drafting lower than the Trailblazers, who are drafting in New Jersey’s spot.
Austin Rivers, 6’4”, 203, SG, Duke, Fr.
nbadraft.net: No. 9, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 16, Philadelphia
Walter Football: No. 17, Minnesota
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 14, Phoenix
Me: No. 13, Utah. First of all, Utah should be drafting lower than number nine with Golden State’s pick. The Jazz are going younger and could have a fully set, youth-filled lineup with Rivers joining Al Jefferson (C), Paul Millsap (PF), and Gordon Hayward (SF) to follow veteran Devin Harris (PG). The problem for the Jazz is the do not have a one-on-one player who can break down defenses with their dribble. That is exactly what Rivers is best at. I could also see the Jazz looking for a point guard to replace Harris, who turns 30 this year and seems to be stuck at 10 points and 5 assists. The Jazz could also look at Rivers as a point project, who can be turned into a playmaker from that position if his passing improves. Rivers will not be an immediate impact player and has to get used to NBA defenses, but could be a key addition for a Jazz team that seems to be playing too slowly. It will be a stretch for Rivers to make it past the lottery but if he makes it to Philadelphia that could be ideal for him. The Sixers are another team that plays slower and could use a guard that could break down defenses. They do, however, pride themselves on defense, something Rivers needs to improve on tremendously. Minnesota would be another good fit if he made it that far, mostly because they do not have a true shooting guard on their roster besides Wesley Johnson, who has been a bit of a bust in his first two seasons. Luke Ridnour has been starting the majority of their games at shooting guard and can certainly score but is not a break down type of player and does not have the size to play the two guard spot. The Wolves have a tremendous future in the frontcourt with Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic and should be looking to draft a guard, whether it’s Rivers or not.
Tyler Zeller, 6’11”, 240, PF/C, North Carolina, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 11, Portland
draftexpress.com: No. 10, New Orleans
Walter Football: No. 11, Milwaukee
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 10, New Orleans
Me: No. 10, New Orleans. Zeller made his living throughout college by outrunning opposing big men and receiving feeds from point guard Kendall Marshall for easy lay-ins. He had a decent post game but, much like Tyler Hansbrough before him, used strength more than agility much of the time. His defensive presence continued to improve. I don’t see Zeller making an immediate impact as a pro, mostly because he won’t be able to outrun opponents and needs to work on his post moves more and not rely on his frame, which will not hold up against NBA bigs, as much. That’s why I see New Orleans being a perfect fit. Chris Kaman is one of the only consistent players on a weak roster in New Orleans and has a similar mindset to the game as Zeller. Kaman came out of Central Michigan with a similar repertoire as Zeller, and, after adding 25 pounds, came out as a starting center. Emeka Okafor is also there, but injuries have continued to deplete his once promising career. If Zeller can work his way into the system and follow Kaman’s footsteps they could make a tough frontcourt. Portland works similarly with LaMarcus Aldrige, but the Trailblazers forward has more talent and a better mid-range game than Zeller and plays the position that he is best suited for. The Blazers lack a consistent center, even though Marcus Camby has had his healthiest year in a long time. But I do not see Zeller being an immediate starter as a center, especially with his lack of size. Milwaukee just lost Andrew Bogut but Ersan Ilyasova, who also mimics a lot of Zeller’s game, is only 24 and seems to be the future inside for the Bucks. The bad news for Zeller is that he is competing against a plethora of power forwards, including Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson of Kansas, Andre Drummond of Connecticut, Arnett Moultrie of Mississippi State, Perry Jones of Baylor, Jared Sullinger of Ohio State, and Meyers Leonard of Illinois. Zeller could be seen as the most mature, but also the least ready for a starting role.
Kendall Marshall, 6’4”, 197, PG, North Carolina, So.
nbadraft.net: No. 14, Utah
draftexpress.com: No. 14, Phoenix
Walter Football: No. 16, Denver
Chad Ford, ESPN: No. 11, Portland
Me: No. 14, Phoenix. I really think that Marshall is going to end up having the best NBA career out of all the ACC prospects coming out this year. He has the best vision out of anyone coming out of the college ranks in years and reminds many of Jason Kidd. His shot remains the biggest question but point guards have succeeded in the NBA without a great outside shot (i.e. Rajon Rondo, Ty Lawson, etc…). Marshall looks the most NBA ready to me, and with improved defense, could be a solid contributor right away for whichever team he plays for. If he were picked by Phoenix that would just be a plus. Although he does not play like Steve Nash, he certainly could learn a lot from him. From his outside shooting to his dribbling ability, Nash is one of the most complete offensive players of the past decade. A Utah pick could make sense, but if they pick Rivers I don’t see Marshall joining him in the backcourt. Denver makes no sense to me, as fellow Tar Heel Ty Lawson is playing the best basketball of his career and is not showing any signs of letting up. Portland also has a Tar Heel in Raymond Felton who has been a traveler throughout his career but is a solid contributor. Felton plays more like Marshall and could take him under his wing, but there are still significant differences in their game. The only other true point guard who could be selected this early in the draft is Weber State’s Damian Lillard, who is a better scorer but not nearly as good of a passer. He also does not possess the size that makes Marshall a matchup nightmare already.
John Henson, 6’10”, 220, PF, North Carolina, Jr.
nbadraft.net: No. 17, Denver
draftexpress.com: No. 8, Detroit
Walter Football: No. 19, Philadelphia
Me: No. 18, Philadelphia. The problem for Henson is that there are the immense amounts of power forwards that I mentioned in the bit about Zeller. He has to compete with them, and he is clearly the most slender out of the group. Zeller is always going to be known as defense first, which bodes well for a lot of teams. He has the height to play against power forwards and does his best work coming as a help defender. Philadelphia prides themselves on defense and while the have Elton Brand set as a power forward, could see Henson as not only a replacement, but also someone who can give him rest and give opponents a completely different look. Brand is again and has a tremendous low post offensive game that he could teach to Henson. Henson could also step in with Brand and make a tough frontcourt to read with one strong, good rebounder and one long, athletic shot-blocker. I don’t see Denver mostly because they just traded to get JaVale McGee, who is a young and athletic center who has a tremendous upside. Al Harrington is the veteran here and should concentrate most of his efforts in raising McGee. Detroit could definitely work for two reasons. Ben Wallace, while reaching the end of his career, plays defensively a lot like Henson does and could help his shot blocking and rebounding. Greg Monroe is also the future at the center position and could team up with Henson to make a good frontcourt. But drafting him at eighth overall is a stretch and I see Detroit drafting one of the many other power forwards ahead of him.
Mike Scott, 6’8”, 237, PF, Virginia, Sr.
nbadraft.net: No. 43, Atlanta
draftexpress.com: No. 60, LA Lakers
Me: No. 37, Sacramento. Scott is going to be looked at to add depth for a roster. This is something that the Kings need. Not to say that Atlanta and the Lakers do not need this but I think Scott has the ability to be drafted ahead of New Mexico’s Drew Gordon, Seton Hall’s Herb Pope, and Cincinnati’s Yancey Gates, all big men who are expected to be drafted around the same time. I just think Scott has the most polished game out of the group, with a strong upper body, good rebounding skills, and a good outside shot.
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