James Michael McAdoo gave Carolina fans a huge breath of relief when he announced that he was going to return for his sophomore season yesterday. But that does not mean there are not glaring holes that Roy Williams is going to have to patch up with freshmen. The Tar Heels have another solid recruiting class coming in and return some key players from injury. Everyone that follows ACC basketball knows that the biggest two games of the schedule are the two matchups between Duke and UNC almost every year. Duke loses Miles Plumlee to graduation and Austin Rivers to early entry. However, the Blue Devils, who were considered very young this year, return with more experience than they have had since their championship run in 2010. Here’s a way-too-early look at the rivalry next season.
North Carolina
Point guard: Marcus Paige, Freshman or Dexter Strickland, Senior. Strickland is a natural shooting guard but was the backup for Kendall Marshall before suffering a knee injury that ended his season prematurely. Paige is thought of as a pure point guard who has excellent vision and good ball handling skills. With all freshmen not named Anthony Davis, Paige will most certainly have a getting-used-to first month or so before being able to handle all the responsibilities of the point. It would not surprise me if Strickland, who is the team’s best returning defender, to start off as the floor leader until Paige gets his feet under him. The other option here would be Stillman White, who did an excellent job in replacing Marshall during the NCAA tournament. However, White is out next season while venturing on a religious exodus. Either way, replacing Marshall may be the hardest thing Williams will have to do.
Shooting guard: Dexter Strickland, Senior, Leslie McDonald, Junior, PJ Hairston, Sophomore, or Reggie Bullock, Junior. This position certainly has the most depth out of any for the Tar Heels, and the most experience. As I mentioned above Strickland was the starting shooting guard until his season ending injury and should be in the starting lineup throughout. McDonald also missed the entire season with an injury and will return as a serious three-point threat. I don’t see McDonald getting many starts, but will certainly be one of the first players off the bench. Hairston came in as a big three point shooter as well, but struggled throughout the season, finishing with a 27.3% average from deep while jacking up almost four threes a game. He has shown signs of athletic talent and with more experience should become more comfortable. The problem for him is he has to compete against three other players that have shown their ability already. Bullock stepped into the starting lineup after Strickland went down and did an adequate job as both their best long-range shooter and a solid defender. With a talented backcourt it wouldn’t be surprising if the 6’7” Bullock moved into the small forward spot.
Small forward: Reggie Bullock, Junior, JP Tokoto, Freshman. With the only other real option at the small forward position being the freshman Tokoto, Bullock should get the nod as the starter here. Tokoto may be the weakest of Carolina’s recruits, but that says something because of his ability. A natural athlete who has an ongoing motor, the 6’6” wing player enjoys playing above the rim. He is not a great shooter and need to add weight to his slender 190-pound frame.
Power Forward: James Michael McAdoo, Sophomore, Desmond Hubert, Sophomore, Brice Johnson, Freshman. McAdoo will become the best post player for this team next year and his late season surge (averaged over 10 points the last seven games) should carry over into next season. He is a freak athlete and has good strength for a player his age. However, maturity becomes a question and his ability to handle the pressure of being the guy who is replacing the production of both John Henson and Tyler Zeller could weigh on him. Hubert was another freshman this year, but got little time on the court. He is a long player and it would not surprise me if Roy had him watch tape of Henson on the defensive end to turn him into a shot blocker. He should get more playing time this season, but is far from a solid contributor on the offensive end. Johnson is one recruit that Carolina fans should be anxious to see. A natural shot-blocker who can run the floor, he should fit into Roy’s system perfectly. He is not a great post up player yet and is another player who should watch Henson to find out exactly how he should play.
Center: Joel James, Freshman. James is coming into Carolina as a recruit that reminds a lot of people of Reggie Johnson of Miami. He is a huge player who can take up room on the block and has good rebounding skills. He is not quite the offensive player that Johnson is, but his strength matches that of anyone coming into college this year. It would not surprise me to see Carolina go small and have McAdoo at the center position a lot or to see McAdoo and Brice Johnson getting the starts down low.
Duke
Point guard: Quinn Cook, Sophomore, Tyler Thornton, Junior, Seth Curry, Senior. Cook may have the most upside out of the returning natural point guards (Thornton being the other) and has excellent vision for a freshman. He had the best assist to turnover ratio on the team and with more playing team could become a solid contributor. His shot remains a big question but if he is getting into the paint and finding the other shooters on the team while averaging around five assists a game, no Duke fan will complain. Thornton is the best defender on the team and seems to play with more energy than his teammates. Far from the most talented player on the squad, the rising junior makes up for it with grit and hustle. He needs to work on his offense, however, both as a passer and shooter. Teams were leaving him alone on the outside and trying to make him beat them instead of Curry or Rivers. It would not surprise me if he ended up just working on his shot all summer and coming back as more of a shooter than playmaker next season. Curry is a natural shooting guard but ran the point at times last year as well. Next year he needs to take over this team, and certainly has the offensive efficiency to do so. He is turning into a natural scorer and a better defender and will be looked to for leadership next year.
Shooting guard: Seth Curry, Junior, Andre Dawkins, Senior, Rasheed Sulaimon, Freshman. As I mentioned above, Curry is the best offensive threat returning for the Blue Devils. He will probably end up starting at the shooting guard position and having Cook become the main ball handler. Dawkins is one of the best shooters in the country, but only when he is on. He is very streaky and needs to work on his defense. He also came out of high school known as an athlete and has yet to show his confidence in driving to the rim. He has certainly shown glimpses of being able to jump as high as anyone on the court but shies away from moments where he has to find his own shot. Sulaimon is the only prospect that has committed to the Blue Devils so far and has a big upside. During the McDonald’s All American game, ESPN commentator and former Blue Devil Jay Williams said of Sulaimon, “Coach K envisions him being a Nolan Smith type of player.” These are big words, as Smith was a national player of the year finalist and helped lead the Blue Devils to a National Championship. He should fit into the Duke system well as he is one of the best shooters and scorers in the incoming class.
Small forward: Michael Gbinije, Sophomore, Alex Murphy, Freshman. Gbinije was used very sparingly this season, which comes as a mystery to many. A 6’7” athletic player who showed he can play defense and get above the rim seemed to be exactly what Duke needed this year. He has gotten high praise on social media from teammates and could gain a larger role next season. Murphy is more of a natural big but can spread the floor with his outside shot. He redshirted this season because Coach K did not see him as getting much playing time with the other bigs on the roster. Other options to start here are Dawkins, who got the start when the Devils went to their three-guard lineup, which was a majority of the time, or Shabazz Muhammad, who has yet to declare for a school. Muhammad is the number two overall recruit and certainly would be a major player for the Devils if he deciding to commit.
Power forward: Josh Hairston, Junior, Ryan Kelly, Senior. Hairston has been a role player both of his first two seasons at Duke and has shown signs of being able to body up with opposing bigs. At 235 pounds he is strong enough to annoy opposing centers. Kelly will more than likely be the starter here. He was missed when he went out with a foot injury before the ACC tournament. He has the ability to play defense on opposing bigs and at 6’11” he can stretch them outside with his three point shooting. A captain this past year, Kelly will be looked at to once again be a leader. Duke is waiting on another recruit here, in Amile Jefferson. Jefferson seems to have narrowed his choices down to Duke, NC State or Kentucky. He is a competitive, long player who has a tremendous upside.
Center: Mason Plumlee, Senior, Marshall Plumlee, Freshman. Mason will be a potential all-conference player if he returns. The best interior presence on the team last year has still not publicly stated if he is going to enter the draft or return for his senior season. He has incredible athleticism and is a good shot-blocker. He needs to continue to improve his post moves but could be a force if he returns. Marshall joined Murphy as a redshirt this season but is thought of as the best offensive post player out of the three brothers. He is long at 6’11” but needs to add weight to his slender frame. He is not thought of as quite as athletic as Mason or Miles but seems to have good basketball IQ. The final recruit Duke is waiting to hear from is Tony Parker. Parker is a big player at 255 pounds and can take up space down low. He would be another immediate impact player for the Blue Devils and is deciding between Duke, Ohio State and Georgia.
The Skinny: Clearly both teams have tremendous depth and that could only get better for Duke if they sign one or all three of the recruits they are waiting to hear from. UNC will have a new look this season without their top four players but returns from injury should give them confidence. Duke will also have a new look without Rivers, who was their best playmaker. I feel as though Rivers leaving may have been a blessing in disguise for Duke, however, as he did not seem to fit the mold of a Coach K player. It should be another interesting matchup between these two and I will be surprised if they fail to split again.
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