Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Recapping Duke's Season: The Epitome of "Up-and-Down"


Duke had the most disappointing performance they have had under Mike Krzyzewski when they lost by five to 15th seeded Lehigh. The Blue Devils have had worse season under Coach K, but it is hard to argue that there has ever been a worse performance when the Blue Devils made the tournament. Duke had been booted only twice before under Krzyzewski; in 1996 they lost to Eastern Michigan after gaining an eight seed in the first year the coach was back after surgery, and in 2007, when the 22-11 Devils were thought of as one of the weaker teams in recent memory, and lost to eleventh seeded Virginia Commonwealth as a six seed. But never has a Duke team gotten into the tournament and had a more disappointing season. That is not to say everything went wrong all year for the Dukies…

November: Grade A-. Duke came in as the preseason number two team in the ACC and number six in the country. But the main story of the first month of the year was around Krzyzewski, who entered the year with 900 wins, with the ability to pass his mentor, Bob Knight, for the most coaching wins in Division I men’s basketball history after just three games. With all that surrounding the team, along with a sense of doubt that the team would be relying to heavily on highly touted freshman Austin Rivers, the Devils came out a bit flat. Their first game was a one point victory over Belmont (who ended up being a more impressive team than most though). The response was perfect though. A blowout win of Presbyterian and a five point victory over future-one-seed Michigan State gave Coach K his record 903rd win. The Devils were not done there, though. They went to the Maui Invitational where they beat a decent Tennessee team, top fifteen team in Michigan, and Sweet Sixteen team Kansas to take the preseason tournament. The Blue Devils were rolling high, getting up to number four in the country. But there last game of the month is what makes that grade an A instead of an A-. Duke lost at Ohio State by 22 in the ACC-Big Ten team and looked worse. Suddenly, all the critics were reminded of why they doubted this Duke team. Record after November: 7-1, Ranked 4 in ESPN/3 in AP.

Austin Rivers and Duke were stuffed by Ohio State after a successful November. -photo via Albany Herald.

December: Grade A. The Blue Devils get an A here, but it comes with stipulations. Their best win was against NCAA tournament team Colorado State, which they beat by 23 at home. But the Devils played just four games, and the only other one of note was a six point win against Washington in New York. This month was when Rivers began to emerge, scoring no less than 14 points in any game, and the Devils were clearly looking to him early and often. Record after December: 12-1, Ranked 5 in ESPN/7 in AP.

January: Grade B. January is where everyone began to see what this Duke team was going to be all about: inconsistency. The month started with a blowout of Penn, but was followed up by a fluke loss at Temple, in which they could not stop the hot shooting Owls. The Devils had hit their highest ranking of the season at number three, but quickly dropped them three spots. A win over Virginia was nice for Duke fans, but in all honesty they could not beat the good defense of the Cavaliers and could not stop Mike Scott, the two things Coach K has always instituted into Duke teams. Then the biggest stunner came; Florida State came into Durham and ended the 45 game win streak for the Devils at Cameron. The last five minutes were a perfect representation of Duke’s season: Rivers drove to the rim and made a beautiful play to tie the game, but then everyone seemed to stare while Seminole guard Luke Loucks dribbled past everyone and found an open Michael Snaer, who hit the buzzer beating three. The Devils ended the month with two wins but the victory over St. John’s was described by Krzyzewski as “a loss today for me”. He continued, "I didn't like today. And if my team doesn't like today, then we'll get better. If my team is OK about today, then we're going to fight a little bit, because I'm not going to change on this." One has to wonder where the team mentality actually went from there. Record after January: 19-3, 6-1 ACC, Ranked 5 in ESPN/7 in AP.

Mason Plumlee (5) had Duke in a mediocre spot after a rocky January. -photo via AP

February: Grade A-. February was surprisingly successful for a Duke team that lost its second game at home and had to go to overtime to beat lowly Virginia Tech to avoid their third. But the Blue Devils completed their improbable run to an 8-0 record on the road in the ACC. The month began by beating the Hokies in Blacksburg, a welcome response to the above quote from Krzyzewski. But then the weirdest of weird’s, a home loss to Miami? Duke looked dead when getting down by 14 at the half but worked their way back behind Rivers and Seth Curry, who were clearly the two best playmakers on the team. The game went to overtime and weird again, the Devils missed all six free throws in the extra time. Then they were traveling to Chapel Hill. This could not be good; visiting your archrival after falling to a weaker team and the Tar Heels are starting to feel like they deserve to be in the conversation or best team in the country. But then Rivers put his name in Duke-UNC lore forever by beating the Heels with a buzzer beating three. Maybe “The Shot” will go down as a top five moment in this storied rivalry, but perhaps it should be mentioned that this began a seven game winning streak. The streak included a comeback win over NC State, a redemption victory at Florida State, and iffy wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The month ended with Duke feeling like the top team in the conference and a very possible number one seed in the NCAA tournament. Senior Miles Plumlee was playing his best basketball, having set a single game record for any player during the Coach K era with 23 in the Maryland game, Rivers was now a lock for freshman of the year, and Curry had become a top scorer in the conference. Record after February: 26-4, 13-2 ACC, Ranked 3 in ESPN/4 in AP.

March: Grade D-. Something stopped clicking all of the sudden. Sure those last two wins against the Hokies and Deacons were not great but they were still wins. The first game was a domination for the Tar Heels in a rematch and seemingly took away Duke’s bid for a number one seed. The Blue Devils fell two a two seed in the ACC tournament and drew Virginia Tech once again. They beat the Hokies but looked super flat on offense, winning 60-56. Then they continued their struggles on the offensive end as eventual ACC champ Florida State won by three in the semifinals. So Duke was all of the sudden entering the Big Dance having lost two of three. While all analysts were writing off Duke to make a serious move in the tournament, they expected them to get past Lehigh. Not to be had. The Mountain Hawks seemed to outplay the Devils throughout, and Lehigh’s best player CJ McCollum could not be stopped, just not Krzyzewski’s normal prerogative.

Consistency from Dawkins, continued improvement from Curry, and another year out of Rivers will help Duke return to greatness next season.

Next year: Austin Rivers* (Fr., the guard was the most talented player on the roster and became a first team all-conference player. All-American potential could add more strength before declaring for the NBA), Seth Curry (Jr., no one doubts his outside shot, but proved his ability to score from anywhere by the end of the season. Defense is an issue), Mason Plumlee*(Jr., team’s best post player average 11 points and 9 rebounds and remained solid through tough late season times. Would be a late first round pick if he left), Ryan Kelly (Jr., injured at the end of the season, ability to stretch defense with his outside shooting and his length(6-11). Will be a constant for this team next year), Andre Dawkins (Jr., the ultimate in terms of inconsistency. Beautiful stroke but goes night’s without scoring. Certainly expanding his game and improving defense will be focal point of offseason), Quinn Cook (Fr., showed great promise as both a defender and passer. Takes good care of the ball and reminds Duke fans of a young Chris Duhon), Tyler Thornton (So., Duke’s best perimeter defender may have improved more than anyone else on roster. Constantly put on other team’s best player, needs to work on shot and offensive point guard responsibilities), Josh Hairston (So., another solid improvement, big body that reminds some fans of Lance Thomas) Michael Gbinije (Fr., wing player was oddly used very sparingly, promising athlete with length), Marshall Plumlee (Fr., redshirt, described as having the best post moves on the team but needs to add muscle), Alex Murphy (Fr., another big body who also has the ability to shoot from the outside. Also redshirted.)

*Pending NBA entry

Incoming Class:
Rasheed Sulaimon- 6-3, 175 pound shooting guard. ESPN grade: 97, Scout.com 5 stars- One of the better pure scorers in the 2012 class, Sulaimon has put up huge numbers on the AAU circuit running with the Houston Hoops. Sulaimon has a quick trigger and range that extends past the three-point stripe. There are still areas for improvement like his ball handling and his strength, but he's one of the best guards the class has to offer.
Duke fans: time to get to know Rasheed Sulaimon. -photo via scout.com

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