After the completion of NC State's win tonight over Virginia Tech, the seedings for the ACC tournament were finally set. Here is my initial reactions to what is getting ready to happen in Atlanta.
Maryland (16-14, 6-10) vs. Wake Forest (13-17, 4-12)- I would rank this at the second most anticipated first day matchup, behind just Clemson and Virginia Tech. These two teams met only once this year, with Maryland winning 70-64 in College Park way back on January 11th. In a typical night, the Terps' leading scorer Terrell Stoglin scored 20 points on 6-18 shooting, but came off the bench. In the game Maryland nearly blew an 18 point lead, and outscored the Deacons 24-9 at the free throw line. Wake Forest sophomore Travis McKie tied a career high with 25 points and added seven rebounds while leading scorer CJ Harris was held to just 10 points. The biggest difference going into this game is Maryland will be without point guard Pe'Shon Howard, who is out for the year with a knee injury. He was the main matchup on Harris and will be missed. Wake has won only two of their last eleven while Maryland has now lost four of five.
Winner vs. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2)- Well we all saw what the Tar Heels are capable of on Saturday in their romp of Duke. Don't expect a let up in Atlanta, although it is hard to count on shooting 56% every game. Either way, North Carolina is the best rebounding team in the country, and outrebounded the Blue Devils by 20. Maryland averages 39 rebounds a game, while Wake averages just 32. North Carolina averages a nation-leading 46 and beat these two teams by an average of 16 in three meetings. Don't expect the winner of the tournament's first game to get much further than the quarterfinals.
NC State (20-11, 9-7) vs. Boston College (9-21, 4-12)- The tournament may be more important to this NC State team than any other involved. The Wolfpack are right in the thick of the bubble, and closed the seasons with victories over fellow bubble team Miami and on the road at a feisty Virginia Tech team. Boston College is trending down, having only won two of their last thirteen games, but the young Eagles seem to always have a little fight. These two teams met twice this year, with the most recent being a 56-51 victory for the Wolfpack in Chestnut Hill. NC State got balanced scoring that game, with four players in double figures, and committed a very modest ten fouls (foul trouble may be the largest concern for this Wolfpack team). Matt Humphrey led the Eagles with 15 that game, and the team outrebounded the larger, more experienced State squad. Since that game the biggest difference has been the rise of NC State's CJ Leslie and Boston College's Ryan Anderson. The junior and freshman, respectably, will most likely matchup at the four spot and spotlight the recent bright spots for both clubs.
Winner vs. Virginia (22-8, 9-7)- Although NC State lost to Virginia in Raleigh, they have to love this draw. It's pretty clear that any of the teams outside of the top four would have rather played Virginia than North Carolina, Duke, or Florida State. Especially NC State, who got throttled by Florida State and twice to Carolina, and lost a heartbreaker at Duke. Virginia's Mike Scott is on a mission, however. He scored a career high 35 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, including seven points in overtime, in their season finale win at Maryland. Scott poured in 18 points in their win in Raleigh, but the second half defense is what won the game for the Cavs. Clearly they would prefer to draw Boston College, who they beat by 17 earlier this year, but you gotta think that Virginia wants to quiet all doubters by grabbing a win or two in the tournament.
Clemson (16-14, 8-8) vs. Virginia Tech (15-16, 4-12)- As I said above, I believe this game will be the most anticipated of the first day matchups. Clemson comes in having won five of seven while Virginia Tech has lost four in row, with three being decided by five or less. One of those close games was a two point loss at Clemson on Thursday, when Tanner Smith's free throws with 2:45 left ended up being the last points either team scored. Smith led Clemson that game with 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists, while Andre Young scored ten and Milton Jennings grabbed 12 boards. Jarell Eddie led the Hokies with 15, but they were outrebounded by eight and star guard Erick Green was held to just eight on 3-11 shooting. This game features a lot of under-the-radar stars in Virginia Tech's Green, Eddie, and Dorian Finney-Smith, along with Clemson's Young, Smith, and Jennings. But the deciding factor might come down to the play of the Hokies' Dorenzo Hudson. Their senior leader has been inconsistent all season and must show up to help Tech make a little noise. Count the Tigers into the NIT if they win one or two games here.
Winner vs. Duke (26-5, 13-3)- Everyone might have their eyes mainly on Duke in Atlanta to see how the team bounces back since Ohio State beat them by 22 in Columbus on November 29th. This may not be the draw the Blue Devils were hoping for either. Clemson is one of the hottest teams coming into the tournament while Virginia Tech would love another crack at the Blue Devils after losing in overtime in Durham on February 25th. Duke handily beat the Hokies in Blacksburg earlier in February and beat Clemson by seven on January 15th. As in many other games this season, the backcourt is the story for Duke, with Andre Dawkins, Austin Rivers, and Seth Curry each taking turns leading the Blue Devils in scoring in the three matchups with the two teams. These three players attitudes of either bounce back or quit might determine whether Duke pushes through and gets another shot at UNC and a potential number one seed in the NCAA tournament of if they sit back and wait for the fait of the committee. Remember, Mike Krzyzewski is coaching this team, do not expect anything easy Tech or Clemson.
Miami (18-11, 9-7) vs. Georgia Tech (11-9, 4-12)- When I said, maybe no team needs wins in this ACC tournament more than NC State, I had in the back of my mind the Hurricanes, who are certainly as much on the bubble as anyone, and cannot afford to lose this game. It does not seem likely, though, as they already beat the Yellow Jackets by 15 in Atlanta this year. Kenny Kadji had 21 points and 8 rebounds that game, while the Hurricanes shot 48% from the field. The difference between that January 24th meeting and now is Georgia Tech's leading scorer, rebounder, and best player, Glen Rice, Jr., is suspended. The Yellow Jackets did win their final two home games over Maryland and Wake, and are going to feel comfortable in Atlanta. The problem is they are going against a desperate team in search of a couple wins to secure their spot in the Big Dance. Miami is coming off of a Saturday win over Boston College in which they shot a stifling 50% from the floor.
Winner vs. Florida State (21-9, 12-4)- This may not be the best draw for the Seminoles but they have known they were not going to be better than the three seed for a week now. Florida State would prefer not to play Miami again, a team that beat them by 16 a week ago. The game was in Miami, but Florida State had no answer for Kadji, who scored 15. Michael Snaer led the Seminoles in that game with 20 but got little help on either end, especially from the bigs. Florida State's only game against Georgia Tech was a 14 point win at home on February 1st. Snaer scored 21 that game, while the team had 14 steals while forcing 15 turnovers. The Seminoles will be coming out hungry, having lost two of their last four, and sneaking a last second victory at Virginia. They know they can beat Duke, and a championship might jump them up to a four or five seed in the NCAAs.
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