Saturday, March 10, 2012

Tar Heels-Seminoles to vie for Championship

Michael Snaer has led Florida State to the ACC Championship. Can he lead them to an upset of North Carolina? -photo via AP

In there only meeting this year, Florida State beat North Carolina 90-57 way back on January 14th. I got that out first so it could also be the first thing forgotten. The Seminoles know they need to put that victory behind them. The Tar Heels may use the worst loss in the Roy Williams era as motivation, but also know they are a different team and want to prove themselves as the best team in the conference. On Saturday, North Carolina beat NC State by two, perhaps getting away with a Kendall Marshall charge, but there is no excuses for the 12 points and 10 assists he put up. Tyler Zeller added 23 points and 9 rebounds and the Tar Heels used the Wolfpack's foul trouble (CJ Leslie fouled out, Deshawn Painter, Richard Howell, and Scott Wood all had four) and moved into the championship. Florida State had to grind out another ugly game, but in what has become the norm for the defensive-minded Seminole team won in a close one. The Seminoles continuously challenged Duke's outside shooters (5-20 3-point shooting for the Blue Devils) and Michael Snaer scored 16 points while grabbing four rebounds and handing out four assists. In my preview I said the two players that were most important for these team would be Andre Dawkins for Duke (0 points, 0-2 shooting) and Snaer's ability to get teammates involved and wait for his shot (a simple 7-12 shooting on the day). So after Seth Curry's heave at the buzzer rimmed out we had the finals matchup set:

PG: Kendall Marshall (UNC) vs. Luke Loucks (FSU)- Marshall is arguably Carolina's most important player, and showed it Saturday. He made the game winning layup with just over ten seconds left, while leading his team all day in the absence of John Henson (injured wrist), Harrison Barnes (3-12 FG), and Reggie Bullock (5 points on 2-7 shooting). No one in the conference has been able to slow Marshall, as proven through his single season record assist total of 323. Luke Loucks made a big jumper of his own, a deep two with 11 seconds left. He also made clutch free throws with a minute left and put up 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists, but committed 4 turnovers. Loucks has been clutch if nothing else but he is no Kendall Marshall. Edge: UNC

SG: Reggie Bullock (UNC) vs. Delvydas Dulkys (FSU)- Everyone knows Dulkys for his 32 points (8-10 3-point FG) performance in the blowout win over Carolina in January. But, like I said earlier, that is removed from the memory bank at this point and Dulkys has scored in double digits just twice since then. Bullock came into the starting lineup for the Tar Heels just two games after these teams' first matchup following an ACL tear from Dexter Strickland. Bullock has been solid, holding opponents' shooting guards to below average numbers. This is seen in NC State's Scott Wood's poor day (2 points, 1-6 FG). Edge: Even

SF: Harrison Barnes (UNC) vs. Michael Snaer (FSU): The first thing to notice in this matchup is the height difference. Barnes is about 6'8" while Snaer is 6'5" when he wakes up. That should not matter much here though. Barnes played maybe his softest game of the season against NC State. James Michael McAdoo picked up his fourth foul early in the second half and Barnes remained at the small forward position, while 6'5" senior Justin Watts drew State big man CJ Leslie for most of the game. Barnes is a pure scorer, but tends to shy away from the basket and settle for the midrange jumper. Snaer is playing he best basketball right now and is the Seminoles leader on both ends of the court. Edge: FSU

PF: James Michael McAdoo (UNC) vs. Bernard James (FSU): McAdoo has shown he has plenty of talent, which no one debated after the freshman was named a two-time Virginia player of the year in high school. But James, a 27-year-old senior, is much more mature as a player. McAdoo had seven early points in the NC State game but picked up his fourth foul early in the second half after sitting out a good portion of the first with three. James had 13 points and 7 rebounds in the win over Duke and has been the leader of the inside for the Seminoles all year. A first team all-defensive team member, expect to see James on Tyler Zeller for a good part of this game too. Edge: FSU

C: Tyler Zeller (UNC) vs. Xavier Gibson (FSU): Gibson has been solid for FSU but had a poor game in the semifinals (4 points on 2-11 shooting). If you follow ACC basketball you know that Zeller is the conference player of the year, and he had another solid performance with a game high 23 points with 9 boards in the win over NC State. Expect Florida State to give Zeller numerous looks, as this team goes deep and has several big man options. Edge: UNC

Bench: Both team are going to go about nine deep, but Florida State has serious threats coming off the bench while Carolina's only got one serious offensive weapon in PJ Hairston. The Seminoles bench includes Okaro White (9 points, 7 rebounds against Duke), the ultra-talented and NBA prospect Ian Miller (7 points, 5 fouls against Duke), Jeff Peterson, and Jon Kreft. Other players besides Hairston that will come off the bench for Carolina include Justin Watts, Stillman White, and Desmond Hubert. Edge: FSU

Totals: FSU 3.5, UNC 2.5. I think this happens because of the lack of John Henson. This Carolina team is now just thin, and when playing their third game in three days against a deep, experienced team like Florida State, it just gets tougher. Final score: Florida State 65, North Carolina 61.

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